Downwards movement was expected for the week for US Oil, and this is exactly what has happened.
Sideways movement with one slight new high fits expectations for the week. A new high above 74.96 to 75.26 has invalidated the alternate Elliott wave count, providing more confidence now in the main Elliott wave count.
Last analysis expected that US Oil had entered a large consolidation, with support about 61.0 and resistance about 72.5 to 73.0. Price remains within this zone, beginning now to swing up to resistance.
For the short term, some upwards movement was expected for US Oil. Although Friday ended with very strong downwards movement, the week made a higher high and a higher low.
Last week’s analysis expected that US Oil had begun a deeper and longer lasting consolidation. A downwards week with a lower low and a lower high fits this expectation.
The pullback has reached the lilac trend line where it was expected to find support.
Last week’s analysis expected an upwards trend in place, and suggested pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.
Last analysis expected more upwards movement for the week, which is what has happened.
Upwards movement continues as the second Elliott wave count expected.
A new high on Friday for US Oil shifts the probabilities of the three daily Elliott wave counts.
A small inside week closing as a doji saw only sideways movement from Oil. This leaves the analysis the same.
The new Elliott wave count is bullish.
A short term pullback was expected, but price moved lower only slightly and briefly before making new highs.
A new high above 66.65 has substantially reduced the probability of the main Elliott wave count and increased the probability of the alternate. This week the two wave counts should be swapped over.