A breach of the channel on the 4th of October on the main daily Elliott wave count indicated a deeper pullback was most likely underway. Thereafter, price has moved lower as the alternate Elliott wave count expected.
Last week’s analysis expected Oil to continue to rise for the short to mid term.
A new high above 49.42 has invalidated last week’s Elliott wave analysis.
Two new Elliott wave counts are considered this week.
Price continues to find resistance at the wide channel on the monthly and weekly charts.
Last week’s analysis expected more downwards movement.
A new low below 46.86 invalidated the main Elliott wave count and provided confidence in the alternate.
More upwards movement was expected for Oil for the week. This is not what happened. A pullback remains just above the invalidation point on the main Elliott wave count.
Upwards movement for the last week for US Oil was not expected and has breached an important trend line. The Elliott wave count this week is changed.
After last published analysis for Oil, another update was posted in comments the following day that expected that the bounce was not over. Price has moved higher since then.
After the strong downwards session of the 5th of July, there was an update to technical analysis posted in comments of the last published post for US Oil which expected the bounce was most likely over. Price has moved down from there as expected so far.
Short positions were exited for a profit when price breached a channel. Now a deep bounce is underway exactly as expected.
Stops are now protecting profit on short positions. The target remains the same.
Members this week may have a little more confidence in the main Elliott wave count now that an alternate has been invalidated.