Upwards movement was expected. The target remains the same.
The correction may have ended 4.46 below the expected low. The Elliott wave count remains the same.
A small green candlestick fits the Elliott wave count. Downwards movement is finding support about the lower edge of the green base channel on the hourly chart.
I had expected one more green candlestick for Wednesday’s session to end about 1,179 – 1,182. This is not what happened. Downwards movement has clarified the structure for minor wave 2 a little further.
A small green candlestick on the daily chart, and a slight increase in upwards momentum on the hourly chart, fits the main Elliott wave count well.
Summary: It is still most likely that the minor degree trend is now upwards. The target for the next wave up is at 1,278 – 1,281, which may be met in a Fibonacci 8 or 13 days total. I have a little more confidence in the main wave count today.
Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count
On the weekly chart extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. Primary wave 5 is now in its 17th week.
At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.
However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has, the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected, and this is my main reason for presenting the alternate wave count to you. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy, and the target may move higher. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.
Intermediate wave (2) is an incomplete expanded flat correction. Expanded flats are the most common type of flat. Minor wave B is a 130% correction of minor wave A, nicely within the normal range of 100% to 138%. At 1,278 minor wave C would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave A. At 1,281 intermediate wave (2) would reach the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (1). This gives a small $3 target zone with a high probability.
I would expect minor wave C to last about a Fibonacci 8 or 13 days, with 13 more likely. It may only subdivide as an impulse or ending diagonal, and an impulse is much more likely.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The channels about downwards movement on yesterday’s hourly charts have both been breached by upwards and sideways movement. MACD is showing a small increase in upwards momentum. It’s not completely convincing, but this does indicate that this main hourly wave count is more likely to be correct.
I am leaving the invalidation point at the start of minor wave C. No second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,161.26.
I have checked the subdivisions of all three first waves on the five minute chart, they may all be seen as five wave structures.
This main wave count now expects to see a strong increase in upwards momentum. At 1,193 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Movement above 1,222.58 would invalidate both daily alternate wave counts and so provide full and final confidence in this main wave count.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate idea has substantially reduced in probability because there is such a gross disproportion between the one hour duration of minuette wave (ii) and the 33 hour duration of minuette wave (iv). This wave count does not have the right look.
If the main wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,161.26 in the next one to few days either of these three alternate ideas may be correct, and this alternate hourly wave count would still have a low probability.
Redraw the channel now that minuette wave (iv) may be over using Elliott’s second technique: the first line from the ends of minuette waves (ii) to (iv) then a copy on the end of minuette wave (iii).
At 1,155 minuette wave (v) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). Minor wave B would be just slightly longer than the maximum common length of 138% the length of minor wave A at 1,156.
Alternate Daily Wave Count I
It is possible that the double zigzag is a completion of intermediate wave (2), but this idea has a very low probability.
This would see intermediate wave (2) only 45% of intermediate wave (1), but more importantly it would have lasted only 11 days in comparison to the 62 days for intermediate wave (1). This is too brief to give the wave count the “right look” on the daily chart.
So far intermediate wave (3) is incomplete (and the degree of labeling within it may yet be moved down one degree). So far only a 1-2-3 down is complete. A following fourth wave may not move into first wave price territory above 1,222.58.
At 993 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).
Alternate Daily Wave Count II
It is possible that primary wave 5 is nearing its end, but this idea has a rather low probability.
This wave count moves the degree of labeling within primary wave 5 all up one degree.
The biggest problem with this wave count is the lack of alternation between intermediate waves (2) and (4): intermediate wave (2) is a deep 65% single zigzag lasting a Fibonacci 5 days and intermediate wave (4) is a somewhat deep 52% double zigzag lasting 11 days. Single and double zigzags are different structures, but they are very similar and belong to the same family. It is not common to see one in a second wave position and the other in a corresponding fourth wave position, especially when both are close to similar depth.
There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (3) and (1) so this wave count would expect to see a Fibonacci ratio between intermediate wave (5) and either of (1) or (3). If intermediate wave (5) were to reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1) it would be truncated. At 1,116 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3). At 1,101 minor wave 5 would reach equality in length with minor wave 5. This gives a rather wide $15 target zone which may be narrowed once it can be calculated at a third wave degree.
Within intermediate wave (5) minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1,222.58.
This analysis is published about 05:07 p.m. EST.
Last Elliott wave analysis expected a little downwards movement which is not what happened. Upwards movement continued, and a new high above 1,219.14 has invalidated the alternate wave count. I have just the one Elliott wave count for you today.
Upwards movement for Tuesday was expected. Movement above the channel on the hourly chart and above 1,228.67 provided confirmation of the Elliott wave count.
Upwards movement was expected for Gold but has not happened. The correction continued lower, and sideways movement completed a small green doji. The main and alternate Elliott wave counts remain mostly the same.
Summary: I expect overall upwards movement here for a minor degree wave to just above 1,345.22, to last about 17 days in total. So far it has lated three days. In the short term I still expect that a third wave up is beginning. The target is at 1,310. I will have full confidence in the main wave count above 1,304.88.
Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
The main wave count sees primary wave 4 as an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.
Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is now a complete zigzag. I have drawn a corrective channel about minor wave B downwards. Apart from a small overshoot within the triangle of minute wave b this channel shows perfectly where price is finding resistance currently. This channel is further support of this wave count.
Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B, this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.
Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 1,280.35.
Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.
I can see another alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.
Minuette wave (ii) continued further as a double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double deepened the correction.
At 1,310 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Once upwards movement manages to break through the upper edge of the pink channel which contains minor wave B downwards then I would expect to see an increase in upwards momentum. If this wave count is correct then this should happen within the next 24 hours. If it does not then this wave count will significantly reduce in probability.
If subminuette wave ii continues further (and it most certainly could because it is not yet a very clear “three”) then it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 1,282.55.
This main wave count expects to see a strong increase in upwards momentum in the next 24 hours, before next analysis is due.
I will have full confidence in this main wave count with price movement above 1,304.88.
Alternate Wave Count.
If minute wave b was not a triangle but a sharp zigzag ending higher up then minute wave c may be unfolding as an ending contracting diagonal.
Within the diagonal minuette wave (iii) is shorter than minuette wave (i). This means that minuette wave (iv) must be shorter than minuette wave (ii). The diagonal trend lines should converge. Only the final fourth and fifth wave zigzags need to complete this structure. At 1,273.50 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.
When minute wave b ends at the point labeled and a trend channel is drawn about this downwards zigzag then minuette wave c does not remain contained within the channel. Normally Gold has structures which look fairly typical and are nicely contained within normally drawn channels. This wave count does not have a typical look for Gold. I would judge this problem to reduce the probability of this alternate to below 20%.
Minuette wave (v) should end at the lower (i)-(iii) trend line of the diagonal.
The pink trend line sloping downwards on this chart is the upper edge of the corrective channel about minor wave B copied over from the daily chart. Here on the hourly chart it is clear how much of minute wave c does not fit into this channel. This looks very atypical for Gold.
At 1,304.88 minuette wave (iv) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (ii). Because the diagonal is contracting this fourth wave zigzag should not be longer than equality with the second wave. Movement above 1,304.88 would see this wave count discarded as at that stage the diagonal would be too atypical.
At 1,300 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a. This would complete minuette wave (iv) zigzag.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (ii) above 1,312.28. However, this wave count would be discarded well before the invalidation point is passed.
The final fifth wave downwards would most likely end when price comes to touch the lower (i)-(iii) trend line of the diagonal. It would likely move at least slightly below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,280.25 to avoid a truncation. The target is where minute waves a and c would reach equality in length at 1,273.50.
This analysis is published about 05:41 p.m. EST.
Downwards movement was expected for both Elliott wave counts. The main and alternate Elliott wave counts remain mostly the same and still expect downwards movement should continue.
Summary: Downwards movement should continue to at least 1,280. If the lower black (B)-(D) trend line is breached in the next few days then the trend should remain down for much longer. What is more likely is that downwards movement will end about 1,280 in another couple of days and thereafter the next wave should be upwards.
Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
It is likely that only minor wave A is complete and sideways movement is an incomplete minor wave B. This wave count could see primary wave 4 last another two weeks to complete in 56 weeks, just one week longer than a Fibonacci 55. It could also end very quickly this week, but I don’t think that would allow enough time for the structure to unfold.
Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.61. Invalidation of this wave count at the daily chart level would provide full confidence in the alternate wave count.
If minor wave B moved substantially lower it should find very strong resistance at the (B)-(D) trend line. A breach of this trend line would look very atypical and at that stage this main wave count would significantly reduce in probability, so much so I would discard it.
B waves exhibit the greatest variety in form and structure of all waves. At this stage it looks like minor wave B is an expanded flat, which when it is done should have a similar look as minor wave B within intermediate wave (B) (at the left hand side of the chart).
I have adjusted labeling of most recent movement again because minuette wave (i) more likely ended lower down. Minuette wave (ii) is a shallow double zigzag. Minuette wave (iii) is incomplete. At 1,287 minuette wave (iii) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iv) should be relatively deep and may not move back into minuette wave (i) price territory.
Thereafter, minuette wave (v) downwards should complete a five wave impulse. At 1,280 minute wave c would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave a.
Alternate Wave Count.
It is possible that primary wave 4 is complete in a total 54 weeks, just one short of a Fibonacci 55 and just one week longer than primary wave 2 which was 53 weeks in duration.
The subdivisions for this alternate do not have as neat a fit as the main wave count:
– The triangle for minor wave B has an overshoot of the b-d trend line within minute wave c which looks significant on the hourly chart.
– At the end of minor wave A minute wave v does not subdivide well as a five wave structure on the hourly chart. This movement fits better as a three.
– Minor wave C subdivides here as a five wave structure, but it has a much better fit as a zigzag (which is how the main wave count sees it).
For the three reasons above this alternate has a lower probability. I would judge it at this stage to have a 20 – 30% probability.
In the short term both wave counts expect more downwards movement, so there is no divergence in expectations. The differentiating point is the lower (B)-(D) trend line here on the daily chart. If this trend line is breached by a full daily candlestick below it and not touching it then I would discard the main wave count and this alternate would be my only wave count.
Final price confirmation would come with movement below 1,240.61. At that stage the main wave count would be fully invalidated.
At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 1 was a remarkably brief three weeks in duration. Primary wave 5 could also be as brief, but it is more likely to show a little alternation and be longer lasting.
The labeling for downwards movement is mostly the same as the main wave count.
The target is different though. At 1,244 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave above 1,313.86.
This analysis is published about 09:02 p.m. EST.
The first five wave structure upwards is now complete. The structure and behaviour which follows it gives us information as to whether this upwards trend should continue towards the target, or if it could be over there.
Yesterday’s Elliott wave analysis expected downwards movement for gold towards a target at 1,268.07. Price has moved lower as expected, but the correction is deeper than anticipated.
I had expected to see a little downwards movement to begin the week, to reach slightly below 1,282.60 but not below 1,277.79. So far price has reached down to 1,282.04 and turned up slightly.
Downwards movement again has continued as expected.