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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st July, 2014

Movement below 1,291.83 confirmed the alternate wave count and invalidated the main Elliott wave count. By a simple process of elimination I now have just one wave count for you today.

Summary: The target for this downwards movement to end is 1,275 to 1,271. It should be over within the next 24 hours. Thereafter, a new wave upwards should begin which should move above 1,345.22.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The main wave count sees primary wave 4 as an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.

Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is an incomplete zigzag.

Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.

If minor wave B gets down as low as the black (B)-(D) trend line it should find very strong support there. Only a small intra-day overshoot could be contemplated if this wave count is correct. Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.51.

When minor wave B is complete then I can calculate a target upwards for you for minor wave C. Because I do not know where it begins I cannot do that yet for you. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minor wave A at 1,345.22 to avoid a truncation. Intermediate wave (E) at its end is most likely to fall short of the (A)-(C) trend line. The other possibility is it may overshoot the (A)-(C) trend line and if it does that it may then find final resistance at the upper edge of the big maroon channel copied over here from the weekly chart.

Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.

I can see one alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common, and I have never seen a zigzag for a first wave of a leading diagonal which has a triangle in its B wave position. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

The triangle was most likely over at the high labeled minuette wave (e) at 1,303.77. Subsequent movement fits best as a series of first and second waves.

Movements following triangles are most commonly relatively short and brief. At 1,271 minute wave c would reach 0.618 the length of minute wave a. At 1,275 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) is 0.30 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).

I have drawn two channels on this downwards movement, both using Elliott’s first technique. The green channel about minute wave c is drawn first with a trend line from the ends of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then a parallel copy is placed on the end of minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (iv), if it continues further, to find resistance at the upper green trend line. When this green channel is clearly breached by upwards movement that shall be earliest indication that minute wave c and so minor wave B in its entirety is over.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 1,292.84. When minuette wave (v) downwards is complete then subsequent movement above this point would provide confidence that minute wave c is over because at that point upwards movement may not be just a fourth wave correction within the downwards trend, and so the downwards trend would have to be over.

I would expect minute wave c to end within the next 24 hours.

This analysis is published about 05:38 p.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2014

Upwards movement was expected for Friday.

Although the target is close by and the structure is incomplete, I am changing the wave count.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th July, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

Movement below 1,315.48 invalidated yesterday’s alternate Elliott wave count and confirmed the main wave count. I have more confidence today that a B wave has begun. Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 26th June, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2014

Movement above 1,257.96 invalidated the main hourly wave count and was allowed for in the alternate wave count, but the structure was incorrect. I still have the same two wave counts for you. The structure at the hourly chart level is exactly the same, the invalidation point is the same, and the channel to provide resistance is the same.

Summary: The correction is incomplete. Price should move higher and sideways for another one or two days before the downwards trend resumes.

This analysis is published about 6:30 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.

It remains possible that primary wave 4 in its entirety is a huge contracting triangle. This alternate idea is published at the end of this analysis daily.

Overall a double combination for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is incomplete. It may be a single zigzag as labeled here. If it is a single zigzag then minute wave c is unfolding as a five wave impulse. Within the impulse minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) at 1,293.47. At 1,178 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

This is the main wave count because minute wave a fits perfectly and best as a five wave impulse. The alternate wave count sees this movement as a three wave zigzag.

Within minute wave c downwards when the next wave down is complete then this main wave count will diverge from the alternate. This main wave count would then expect a fourth wave correction and the alternate would then expect downwards movement to be over. The point of differentiation at that stage would be 1,241.12.

I have drawn a channel about minor wave B downwards: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. I will expect downward movement to find support at the lower end of this channel due to this being the most common place for minute wave c to end. Minuette wave (ii) within minute wave c should find resistance at the upper edge of the channel, if it reached up that high.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

Upwards movement can only be a continuation of minuette wave (ii). Yesterday’s hourly chart for this wave count was wrong.

At this stage I would expect minuette wave (ii) to be completing as a double combination: flat – X – zigzag, with subminuette wave x as regular contracting triangle.

Within subminuette wave y micro wave B may not be complete and could move lower. It may not move beyond the start of micro wave A at 1,252.43.

I would expect micro wave C to most likely make at least a slight new high above the end of micro wave A at 1,263.72 to avoid a truncation. But I would not expect it to move much higher than this, because minuette wave (ii) is a combination and their purpose is to move price sideways not to deepen a correction. This one already has a shallow slope. I would not expect the slope of minuette wave (ii) to increase.

I have drawn a best fit channel about this correction. Once micro wave C may be complete (as soon as a new high above 1,263.72 is seen) then the invalidation point at 1,252.43 no longer applies. At that stage I would use the channel as first indication of a trend change; when this channel is clearly breached by downwards movement then a third wave may be underway. At that stage price movement below 1,241.16 would provide full and final confidence that a third wave is underway.

When minuette wave (ii) is complete then I can calculate a target for you for minuette wave (iii). I cannot do that today.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) above 1,293.47.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2014

If within minor wave B downwards the first wave is a three wave zigzag and not a five wave impulse then minor wave B may be completing as a double zigzag, with minute wave x a nine wave triangle. This means that the current downwards movement may be completing as a zigzag and not an impulse. This may explain the sideways movement of the last few days quite nicely. The overall direction is the same as I still expect more downwards movement.

This alternate has a lower probability than the main wave count because when the downwards wave for minute wave w is seen as a three it does not fit as neatly with momentum and the Fibonacci ratios are not as startlingly good as the main wave count.

Within minute wave y once minuette wave (b) is complete then minuette wave (c) downwards would be the final movement to complete minor wave B. At that stage subsequent movement above 1,241.12 would confirm this alternate wave count and invalidate the main wave count. But that is still weeks away at this stage.

Within minute wave y minuette wave (b) would be incomplete on the hourly chart. It may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 1,293.47.

If the next piece of downwards movement does not show a strong increase in downwards momentum then this alternate would be an excellent explanation.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

At this stage there is absolutely no difference in the short term expectation, invalidation points, short term structure or trend channels between the main and alternate wave counts.

I have provided some more detail on this chart for you for subminuette wave w, which was the source of my mistake on yesterday’s analysis.

Daily – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Triangle 2014

It remains possible that primary wave 4 in its entirety is a huge regular contracting triangle.

So far one of the five subwaves of the triangle subdivides into a double zigzag. All the other four subwaves must then be simple corrections, and three of them must be single zigzags. The fourth may be another type of simple A-B-C correction, and most commonly it would also be a zigzag.

Intermediate wave (D) would most likely be incomplete for the triangle to have a typical look. Intermediate wave (D) may end between 1,233 and 1,213, 75% to 85% the length of intermediate wave (C), which in my experience is a typical wave length for a triangle subwave.

Intermediate wave (D) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (B) for a contracting triangle. For a barrier triangle intermediate wave (D) may end about the same level as intermediate wave (B) as long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat. In practice this means that intermediate wave (D) may end very slightly below the end of intermediate wave (B). This lower invalidation point is not black and white. This is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white.

Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) for either a contracting or barrier triangle.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2014

Price has moved lower as expected. A clear breach of the channel on the hourly chart confirms a third wave down should have begun.

Summary: A third wave down has most likely begun. The target for it to end is 1,247 and this may be reached in four more days, or more likely seven more days.

This analysis is published about 05:35 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure may be either a single zigzag (as labeled here) or a double zigzag (relabel A-B-C to W-X-Y). While this next wave unfolds I will have to consider two structural possibilities: it may be an impulse for a C wave, or it may be a zigzag for a Y wave.

If minor wave B is a single zigzag then within it minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1,392.30. Minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a at 1,200.89.

If minor wave B is a double zigzag, relabeled minute w-x-y, then within it there is no invalidation point for minute wave x. But X waves within double zigzags are usually relatively brief and shallow, as they very rarely make new price extremes beyond the start of the first zigzag in the double.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

The channel which was drawn about minuette wave (ii) on yesterday’s chart is now clearly breached with strong downwards movement. This provides trend channel confirmation that the upwards correction is over and the next wave should have begun.

The next wave should be a strong third wave down.

At 1,247 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i). When there is more structure within minuette wave (iii) to analyse then I will add to the target calculation at a second and eventually third wave degree. This target may widen to a small zone or it may change. If it changes I would expect it to be lower.

I have drawn a base channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Minuette wave (iii) downwards should be strong enough to break through support at the lower edge of this channel. Once the lower edge of the channel is breached then it should provide resistance.

On the way down, and particularly before the lower edge of this channel is breached, the upper edge should provide resistance to upwards corrections.

So far within minuette wave (iii) there is a lot of overlapping. This suggests a series of first and second waves has begun, which is typical when a third wave extends (which is most common). So far this has a typical look. I would expect downwards momentum to begin to increase over the next 24 hours.

Minuette wave (i) lasted a Fibonacci five days. I would expect minuette wave (iii) to last a minimum of five days, and more likely a total Fibonacci eight days. This means the target at 1,247 may be reached in another seven days trading.

Within minuette wave (iii) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1,309.14.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2014

Upwards movement continued as expected. The target remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2014

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th December, 2013

Last analysis expected a fourth wave correction may have been complete. A trend channel was provided for confirmation. We did not get confirmation and price moved higher, remaining just below the invalidation point.

The wave count is mostly the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. To see a full explanation of my reasoning for expecting that primary wave 4 is not over and is continuing see this.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat correction, and was a deep 68% correction of primary wave 1. In order to show alternation in structure primary wave 4 may be a zigzag, double zigzag, combination, triangle or even an expanded or regular flat. We can rule out a zigzag because the first wave subdivides as a three. This still leaves several structural possibilities.

The downwards wave labeled intermediate wave (B) is now over 90% the length of the upwards wave labeled intermediate wave (A). Primary wave 4 may be a flat correction, but it may also still be a combination or triangle as there are still several different structural possibilities.

At 1,167.73 intermediate wave (B) would be 105% the length of intermediate wave (A), and primary wave 4 may be an expanded flat correction. Expanded flats normally have C waves which move substantially beyond the end of the A wave, and which are often 1.618 and sometimes 2.618 the length of the A wave. If 1,167.73 is reached and passed then the subsequent upwards wave for intermediate wave (C) may reach well above 1,433.83.

Within minor wave C there was no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i. This makes it more likely we shall see a Fibonacci ratio exhibited between minute wave v and either of i or iii. At 1,159 minute wave v would reach equality in length with minute wave iii. This lower target allows enough room for minute wave v to complete.

Downwards movement has breached the parallel channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) downwards, and it has found support at the next trend line.

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C downwards with the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy upon the low labeled minute wave iii. Downwards movement is finding support at the lower edge of this channel.

When the channel about intermediate wave (B) is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (C) is underway.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (iv) has moved higher, and we still do not have trend channel confirmation that it is over. There is almost no room left for upwards movement, and so it must be over if this wave count is correct.

At the daily chart level this main hourly wave count has a better look than the alternate below.

I want to see movement below the parallel channel containing minuette wave (iv) to have confidence that it is over. A full hourly candlestick below the channel and not touching the lower trend line would provide a clear channel breach.

While price remains within this channel the alternate hourly wave count below must be considered.

At 1,155 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This gives us a smaller $4 target zone.

Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,220.65.

If this main hourly wave count is invalidated then the alternate hourly wave count below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

There are two structural possibilities for a fifth wave. The main hourly wave count above looks at the more common structure of an impulse for minute wave v, and this alternate looks at the less common structure of an ending diagonal.

At the daily chart level this alternate wave count does not have the right look; ending diagonals normally have very obvious zigzags for subwaves 1, 3 and 5. On the daily chart for this ending diagonal minuette waves (i) and (iii) look like impulses and do not look like zigzags.

Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves must subdivide as zigzags. Diagonals are the only structures where you will see a third wave labeled as a zigzag.

Within a diagonal the second and fourth waves most commonly end between 0.66 and 0.81 of the prior subwave. Within this possible diagonal minuette wave (ii) was a 0.66 correction of minuette wave (i). Minuette wave (iv) would be between 0.66 and 0.81 the length of minuette wave (iii) between 1,230.10 and 1,239.82.

This wave count eliminates the problem of proportions within minuette wave (iii); this downwards movement subdivides nicely as a zigzag.

Within minuette wave (iv) subminuette wave a is remarkably short, and this reduces the probability of this wave count slightly. However, a bigger problem is within the structure of subminuette wave c: micro wave 3 must subdivide as an impulse and the only way this works is to see submicro wave (1) ending at 1,201.74 so that submicro wave (3) is not the shortest wave. If submicro wave (1) ends there then on the five minute chart it does not subdivide into a five wave structure. I will allow for the possibility that my analysis of this piece of movement may be wrong.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (iv) must overlap into minuette wave (i) price territory; this wave count requires movement above 1,220.65.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (ii). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,252.12.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

A new low below 1,180.40 is also possible for this wave count if the triangle is a running triangle, as about 40% of triangles are.

The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th December, 2013

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement. This is not what happened. Movement above 1,244.74 invalidated the hourly wave count. The daily wave count remains valid.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th December, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th November, 2013

A new low for Silver in the last 24 hours changes the situation. Yesterday’s alternate wave count for Silver was confirmed, and so I expect Gold should follow.

I am swapping the main and alternate wave counts for Gold over today. I am still expecting a little more upwards movement, but this should be followed by new lows within two to four days.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. It is now more likely to continue as a double combination because within it intermediate wave (X) should be deep.

The purpose of double combinations is to take up time and move price sideways, so I would now expect intermediate wave (Y) to end about the same level as intermediate wave (W) at 1,433.83. Double combinations in fourth wave positions are quite common.

Within the combination intermediate wave (X) is unfolding as a zigzag. Minor wave C downwards must complete as a five wave structure. At 1,206.05 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A.

There is no lower invalidation point for intermediate wave (X); X waves may make new price extremes beyond the start of W waves, and they may behave like B waves within flat corrections. For combinations X waves often end close to the start of W waves.

I have drawn a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X) using Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B. Place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. I will expect minor wave C to find support at the lower end of this channel, and it may end there.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within minor wave C minute waves i, ii and iii are complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves i and iii so it will be very likely that minute wave v will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minute waves i or iii. When minute wave iv is complete, and I know where minute wave v has begun, I will add to the target calculation at minute wave degree, so the downwards target may widen to a small zone or change.

Minute wave ii was a shallow 36.5% regular flat correction of minute wave i. Given the guideline of alternation I would expect minute wave iv to most likely be a zigzag and to most likely end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 1,301.30.

So far within minute wave iv it looks like minuette waves (a) and (b) may be complete. Minuette wave (a) subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse, and minuette wave (b) as a zigzag. Because minuette wave (a) is a five it is likely that minute wave iv is unfolding as a zigzag. At 1,298 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).

Draw a parallel channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the high of minute wave ii. I will expect minute wave iv to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

So far minute wave iv shows up on the daily chart as a green candlestick. Minute wave ii lasted four days, and I will expect minute wave iv to last at least another one to two days.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,306.15.

Alternate Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Up to now this has been the main wave count. Its counterpart for Silver was invalidated and so I would expect Gold to follow with an invalidation of this wave count within a few days.

This alternate looks at the possibility that primary wave 4 is a double zigzag, and that the second zigzag is underway.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

For this alternate minor wave B should now most likely be over. Within minor wave C no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,261.15.

Only if price moves above 1,306.15 in the next few days would I again use this wave count. Otherwise I am expecting now for it to be invalidated.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th November, 2013

Last analysis expected a little upwards movement to either about 1,327 or 1,340. Price did move a little higher, but remains within the channel on the hourly chart.

The structure of the current wave is incomplete, and it should continue a little further. The wave count remains the same, and I have a new alternate for you.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th November, 2013

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th October, 2013

Last analysis expected more upwards movement for a correction. Price has made a new high in choppy, overlapping sideways movement, which is typically corrective.

The wave count remains the same.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th October, 2013