A small inside day fits the idea of a multi day consolidation unfolding.
A slightly lower low and a small range day mostly fits short term expectations.
Although it is slow, upwards movement continues as expected. The channel on the hourly chart should be useful early next week in providing confidence in the Elliott wave count.
Yesterday’s analysis stated to look for a turn and a bounce while price remained above support. Price remained above support at 1,305 and a turn and a bounce transpired.
Last analysis expected a trend change and upwards movement for Gold. This is exactly what has happened.
A strong breach of the channel on the hourly chart has indicated a low is probably in for Gold, at least for the short term. Upwards movement then has continued as expected after the breach.
More upwards movement was expected towards a target at 1,268 to 1,270. Price has reached up to 1,266.70, just 1.30 short of the target zone so far.
With an invalidation of the main hourly Elliott wave count below 1,276.10, the alternate hourly Elliott wave count now has confidence.
Upwards movement continues as expected. A downwards whipsaw breached the invalidation point on the hourly chart, which was too close.
A pullback was expected when price made a new low below 1,244.28, but it was expected to be a little deeper though: price fell $6 short of the first target at 1,238.
The overall trend remains up, which still fits the Elliott wave count.
A shallow consolidation was expected for Friday and Monday.
Monday completes a doji, which is essentially sideways movement, as expected.
Price has moved higher but today’s candlestick closed red.
There are still at least two hourly Elliott wave counts for the main daily Elliott wave count. The alternate Elliott wave count has reduced in probability.
A strong breach of the base channel on the main hourly Elliott wave count shifted probability from bullish to bearish. The alternate Elliott wave count was then preferred because it expected more downwards movement.