Tag Archives: gold elliott wave

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th March, 2017

Price has moved higher but today’s candlestick closed red.

There are still at least two hourly Elliott wave counts for the main daily Elliott wave count. The alternate Elliott wave count has reduced in probability.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

A strong breach of the base channel on the main hourly Elliott wave count shifted probability from bullish to bearish. The alternate Elliott wave count was then preferred because it expected more downwards movement.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 2nd March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st March, 2017

All three hourly Elliott wave charts yesterday expected some downwards movement to at least 1,240. Thereafter, the main wave count expected a resumption of upwards movement.

The low for the session was 1,237.18 and then from there price bounced to close green.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st March, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2017

Some downwards movement was expected from all three hourly Elliott wave charts.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2017

Price moved higher for Friday’s session, which was not expected but was allowed for. Price remains below the invalidation point on the main hourly Elliott wave count.

This week volume and ATR are giving some clues as to what the upwards movement for the last three days most likely means.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 17th February, 2017

The Trading Room – 17th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at USDJPY, EURUSD and Copper.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A pullback within the new upwards trend may offer an opportunity to join the trend when it is done. However, this is still very early stages; ADX does not yet indicate a new upwards trend. This is a lagging indicator; it is based upon a 14 day average.

Price may find support here at the blue trend line.

Caution: the last three daily candlesticks give a reversal signal, an Evening Doji Star pattern. This indicates a change from up to either down or sideways.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This market is behaving as expected so far. Elliott wave targets may be used as profit targets.

HOURLY CHART

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

At this stage, expect a 0.618 retracement of the prior upwards wave.

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EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Overall, this chart looks bearish. When markets trend downwards, corrections offer an opportunity to join the trend. In this case, the long lower wick and green candlestick today are slightly bullish. A bounce may be unfolding within a downwards trend here.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A deeper bounce may find resistance at the lower edge of the best fit yellow channel. On Balance Volume remains bearish.

HOURLY CHART

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Price has breached a support line, but this line is very steep and does not offer good technical significance. Price may yet move higher to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio before turning. Watch this closely over the next 24 hours. If price begins to move down and away strongly, then the next wave down may be underway.

Copper

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Copper Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is finding support about the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average. If a full daily candlestick can print below this average, it would offer a little confidence in a trend change.

Upwards movement shows weakness: divergence with RSI, flat to declining ATR, and contracted Bollinger Bands.

However, there is as yet no indication nor confirmation of a trend change from up to down. Watch On Balance Volume closely over the next few days; a breakout there may indicate the next direction for price.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

If the triangle labelled primary wave X is correct, then this upwards movement may not be a developing impulse, so it must be corrective. Triangles may not be a sole corrective structure within a second wave.

This upwards movement fits as a completed double zigzag. This may be a large counter trend movement within a bigger downwards trend.

If price prints a full daily candlestick below the lilac support line, then the next wave down may have begun.

MONTHLY CHART

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Watch the green resistance line (copied over to the daily chart, both on a semi-log scale). If price prints at least one full daily (and preferably weekly) candlestick above that trend line, then expect more upwards movement. If that happens, then my Elliott wave count above would be wrong.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 03:46 a.m. EST.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

Upwards movement for the main Elliott wave hourly chart was expected to reach a target at 1,240.

Price moved higher as expected to reach 1,241.99.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2017

Price made a lower low and lower high today, the definition of downwards movement. Overall, this was expected.

But the session closed green with a strong bounce and that was not expected as the most likely scenario, but it was allowed for.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

A little upwards movement fits the Elliott wave count.

The first in a series of second wave corrections may now be complete today.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th February, 2017

Downwards movement continued as expected for Monday’s session.

The main Elliott wave count remains the same. The alternate is slightly adjusted at the hourly chart level.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 13th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

A breach of the trend channel and a new low below 1,227.82 has invalidated the main wave count and confirmed an alternate.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th February, 2017

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017

Another upwards day fits the second hourly Elliott wave count. Price is now just above the target range, which was 1,219.11 to 1,233.43.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2017