A fourth wave correction ended right at the lower edge of the Elliott channel and from there price bounced up to make new highs for a fifth wave.
Downwards movement continued as expected for Monday’s session.
The main Elliott wave count remains the same. The alternate is slightly adjusted at the hourly chart level.
Upwards movement was expected, but this is not what has happened.
Price has moved mostly sideways to complete a small red doji and remains above the invalidation point on the hourly chart.
The Elliott wave counts diverged yesterday.
Price remains within the confirmation / invalidation points.
Classic technical analysis, particularly volume analysis, will be used to judge the probability of each wave count today. Price is the ultimate determinator though.
A short term move lower to 1,311 – 1,312 was expected before more upwards movement.
Price has moved higher.
Upwards movement was expected as most likely from the main Elliott wave count. The alternate expected a little downwards movement.
A little more upwards movement was expected.
Price has moved slightly higher.
Upwards movement was expected. Price moved sideways in a small range to complete a very small red candlestick.
Price remains above the invalidation point and is hugging the support line.
Both Elliott wave counts expected a trend change, but upwards movement has continued. This changes the probability of these two Elliott wave counts.
A green candlestick on the daily Elliott wave chart indicates this last fifth wave will be extended, and will take its time. The targets remain the same. Upwards movement remains below the invalidation point and ended at the upper edge of the channel, as expected it should.
A slight breach of the invalidation point on the hourly chart changes the picture considerably. I have considered multiple possibilities and present the Elliott wave count with the best fit and best overall look, which agrees with current momentum.
The main Elliott wave count expected upwards movement in the short term to show an increase in momentum. The short term target was at 1,310. Price moved strongly higher as expected, so far up to 1,309.74.
With continued sideways movement today I am discarding the prior main wave count in favour of the alternate, which will be my only wave count.