Upwards movement was expected. The main Elliott wave count is confirmed, and the alternate Elliott wave count which was judged to have a very low probability was invalidated.
Another red candlestick and a slight new low fit the Elliott wave count.
Downwards movement continues as expected. Upwards corrections are finding resistance at the upper edge of the small green channel on the hourly chart, as expected.
The Elliott wave count remains the same.
Summary: The short term target at 1,241 may be met within 24 hours now. Thereafter, a small upwards correction may last a day or two. The mid term target remains the same at 1,231, with a second lower possibility at 1,221 – 1,218.
Click on charts to enlarge.
The black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached. There are now four clear daily candlesticks below this black trend line and so I have confidence that primary wave 5 has begun. The black (B)-(D) trend line is now also clearly breached on the weekly chart. This is significant.
In the last few trading days it is downwards days which have clearly higher volume. From a traditional technical analysis point of view this indicates the main trend is most likely down.
At 956.97 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1. Primary wave 3 is $12.54 short of 1.618 the length of primary wave 1, and equality between primary waves 5 and 1 would give a perfect Elliott relationship for this downwards movement.
However, when triangles take their time and move close to the apex of the triangle, as primary wave 4 has (looking at this on a weekly chart is clearer) the movement following the triangle is often shorter and weaker than expected. If the target at 956.97 is wrong it may be too low. In the first instance I expect it is extremely likely that primary wave 5 will move at least below the end of primary wave 3 at 1,180.40 to avoid a truncation. When intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete I will recalculate the target at intermediate degree because this would have a higher accuracy. I cannot do that yet; I can only calculate it at primary degree.
On a weekly chart extend the triangle trend lines of primary wave 4 outwards. The point in time at which they cross over may be the point in time at which primary wave 5 ends. This does not always work, but it works often enough to look out for. It is a rough guideline only and not definitive. A trend line placed from the end of primary wave 4 to the target of primary wave 5 at this point in time shows primary wave 5 would take a total 26 weeks to reach that point, and that is what I will expect. So far it is in its ninth week.
Minor wave 1 is a leading contracting diagonal. This was followed by a somewhat deep correction, a zigzag for minor wave 2.
Within minute wave v no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 1,296.60.
Draw a channel about minor wave 3 on the daily chart and copy it over carefully to the hourly chart: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves ii to iv, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minute wave iii. Expect downwards movement for minute wave v to find support, and maybe end, at this lower pink trend line.
Because subminuette wave ii within minuette wave (v) shows up clearly on the daily chart, I expect that minuette wave (v) is extending. When subminuette wave iv arrives I would expect it is highly likely to also show up on the daily chart.
So far price remains contained within the small channel drawn on the hourly chart about minute wave v. Draw this green channel using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minuette waves (ii) to (iv), then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minuette wave (iii). Minuette wave (v) may breach the lower edge of this channel as sometimes strong extended fifth waves in commodity markets do this.
At 1,241 subminuette wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This target looks like it should be met within 24 hours now.
When subminuette wave iii is complete I will expect a shallow sideways correction for subminuette wave iv to show alternation with subminuette wave ii. Subminuette wave iv is very likely to show on the daily chart as at least one green candlestick or doji.
At 1,231 minuette wave (v) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (iii). Because there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (i) and (iii) it is very likely that minuette wave (v) will exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of minuette waves (i) or (iii). This first higher target has the better probability.
If price keeps dropping through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure is incomplete, then the second lower probability target would be used.
At 1,218 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1. At 1,221 minute wave v within minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii.
Within suminuette wave iii micro wave 4 may not move into micro wave 1 price territory above 1,264.55.
This analysis is published about 05:20 p.m. EST.
I have two Elliott wave counts for you today. I would judge the main wave count to have a 60% probability, and the alternate to have a 40% probability. We should have some clarity within two or three days, at the most.
Upwards movement continued as expected. The Elliott wave count remains the same.
Sideways movement continues as expected from yesterday’s sole Elliott wave count. It now shows as two red doji candlesticks on the daily chart. The target remains the same.
The triangle may now be complete. A break below 1,277.57 would confirm this.
Summary: Sideways movement may have just ended and price may be breaking out to the downside. Confirmation below 1,277.57 is required. The target is 1,189.
This analysis is published about 07:15 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.
If downwards movement does not reach 1,201.98 or below then intermediate wave (Y) may not be a flat correction and may be a contracting triangle. I will keep this alternate possibility in mind as this next wave down unfolds. If it looks like a triangle may be forming I will again chart that possibility for you.
Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure is most likely to be a single zigzag with a triangle for minute wave b which is very close to completion.
Minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1,392.30.
At 1,189 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. Minute wave a lasted 11 days and I would expect minute wave c to be of about the same duration. If it lasts 13 days it would have a Fibonacci time relationship.
Finally, today I have considered the possibility that when sideways movement is done price could break out to the upside. This is possible, but such a wave count has the wrong look and so I don’t want to publish it for you. It only works if minute wave b is a combination: zigzag – X (as a triangle) – wave Y yet to complete. I will only chart this possibility for you if it shows itself to be true, but in my experience with Gold it has structures which look very typical. This idea does not look typical.
It is possible that minuette wave (e) and so the whole triangle is now finally over. However, I have a couple of concerns with this wave count.
Within the triangle minuette wave (b) subdivides only as a double zigzag and does not fit as a single zigzag. Within a triangle only one of the five subwaves may be a more complex wave, and so with minuette wave (b) a double zigzag that means minuette wave (e) must be a simple three, most likely a single zigzag. The problem is subminuette waves a and c within it do not subdivide as five wave structures.
My second concern is the movement downwards from the high labeled minuette wave (e). This is not a very strong movement, and when triangles complete the start of the next wave out of them is normally very swift and strong.
This makes me consider the possibility that the triangle is not over, or my labeling of some of the subwaves may be wrong, or it could be continuing yet further sideways as a nine wave triangle, or within the triangle a subwave may be unfolding as a triangle itself which I am struggling to see.
If minute wave b is continuing further sideways as a nine wave triangle then we would see a continuation of sideways movement for another one to three days, before the breakout to the downside occurs.
Minuette wave (e) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (c) above 1,315.72.
In the first instance a clear breach of the lower (b) – (d) trend line of the triangle would indicate price is breaking out to the downside.
Movement below 1,277.57 would provide final confirmation that price has broken out to the downside. At that stage downwards movement could not be a b wave within a zigzag for minuette wave (e), nor could it be a continuation of any triangle subwave of a nine wave triangle.
The channel on the hourly chart has been clearly breached by upwards movement. I have two wave counts for you today. The situation is unclear.
As expected upwards movement found resistance at the pink trend line on the daily chart. Downwards movement continues towards the target.
Downwards movement has invalidated one of the three wave counts. The other two are still viable (with some adjustment). I now have a clear price point which will differentiate the two wave counts for next week, and I now judge one to have a higher probability than the other.