Tag Archives: how will the silver do in 2014

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th February, 2015

A new low below 17.322 and then 17.201 has invalidated both my alternate Elliott wave counts for Silver (I only published one). This leaves just one Elliott wave count now for Silver.

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Silver daily 2015

Minor wave 1 has a good fit. There is perfect alternation between the zigzag of minute wave ii and the flat of minute wave iv. Minute wave iii is 0.180 longer than 4.236 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.04 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minor wave 2 is a double zigzag. The best fit channel about minute wave y is clearly breached now by downwards movement, and the lower trend line is providing resistance to upwards movement.

Minute wave i subdivides reasonably well as a five wave impulse.

I expect minute wave iii has begun. Within it minuette wave (i) may be complete. If this is correct then I would expect some more upwards movement for minuette wave (ii) which should be a deeper correction than it is so far.

At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would be 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th January, 2015

Silver does not answer the question: will the breakout for Gold, GDX and Silver be upwards or downwards?

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Silver daily 2015

Minor wave 1 has the best fit. Minor wave 2 is here seen as a double zigzag. The structure is incomplete. A new high above 18.486 would not invalidate this wave count but it would substantially reduce the probability of it.

A new low below 17.322 would invalidate the alternate below and provide a lot of confidence in this main wave count.

Silver daily alternate 2015

This wave count does not have as good a fit within the downwards movement labelled intermediate wave (C).

The blue channel is a base channel. Minor wave 3 should have the power to break above it.

Within the first new five up of a new trend at cycle degree, minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory below 17.322.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th August, 2014

Last Elliott wave analysis expected more downwards movement from Silver. Price has moved lower as expected.

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Main Wave Count.

Silver weekly 2014

Downwards movement subdivides so far as an incomplete double zigzag. This cannot be an impulse if the movement which I have labeled primary wave X is correct as a triangle because a triangle may not be the sole structure in a second wave position.

The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three”, a triangle, in the opposite direction labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag for primary wave Y is moving price lower to deepen the correction, and so this structure has a typical double zigzag look in that it has a clear slope against the main trend.

Within primary wave Y the triangle for intermediate wave (B) is now a complete barrier triangle. Movements following triangles, and particularly barrier triangles, have a tendency to be relatively short and brief. The higher target has a higher probability for this reason.

Within primary wave Y at 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

Within primary wave Y intermediate wave (A) lasted 30 weeks, and intermediate wave (B) lasted exactly a Fibonacci 54 weeks. I would expect intermediate wave (C) to end in a total 21 or 34 weeks.

Silver daily 2014

The triangle for intermediate wave (B) is complete.

Intermediate wave (C) downwards should subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse (most likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely). At this stage it is far too early to tell which structure may unfold.

The first five down is complete as a leading contracting diagonal. Following leading diagonals in first wave positions second wave corrections tend to be very deep. I would expect minor wave 2 to end above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 and be over 80% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 17 days. I would expect minor wave 2 to be about the same duration.

Within intermediate wave (C) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 21.579.

Silver hourly 2014

So far to the downside minor wave 1 subdivides as a leading diagonal where all the sub waves are zigzags. The fourth wave overlaps back into first wave price territory as it should for a diagonal.

Minute wave ii is a 68% correction of minute wave i, and minute wave iv is a 52% correction of minute wave iii. Minute wave ii is within the more common range of between 66% to 81% the prior wave while minute wave iv is more shallow.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to unfold as a zigzag, but there are several other possible structures it may take. If it is an expanded flat or combination then it may include a new low below its start. For this reason there can be no lower invalidation point for this correction.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

Alternate Wave Count.

Silver weekly alternate 2014

This alternate wave count sees intermediate wave (B) as an incomplete zigzag and not as a complete triangle.

This alternate would expect intermediate wave (B) to break through resistance at the aqua blue trend line. This is unlikely.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 34.515.

Silver daily alternate 2014

At 25.484 minor wave C would reach equality in length with minor wave A. Minor wave C is extremely likely to make at least a slight new high above 25.118 to avoid a truncation.

Within minor wave C at 25.164 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 18.581.

I am still considering this alternate idea because for the main wave count (at the daily chart level) minor wave E of the triangle is such a strong overshoot. Sometimes E waves overshoot the A-C trend line of triangles when they come to an end, but not by that much. It has a slightly strange look.

This wave count requires a new high above 21.579 for confirmation. While price remains below 21.579 the main wave count will have a much higher probability.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th May, 2014

A new low slightly below 18.585 to 18.581 invalidated last week’s wave count for Silver.

I still expect a triangle is completing, but rather than a B wave within a B wave the triangle may be intermediate wave (B) in its entirety.

This makes no difference to the expectation of more sideways movement, but it makes all the difference to the expected direction of the eventual breakout. When sideways movement is done price should break out downwards.

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Silver daily 2014

It still looks like a triangle is forming at the daily chart level. The triangle fits best as a barrier triangle for intermediate wave (B). The B-D trend line is almost perfectly flat.

This wave count expects more choppy overlapping sideways movement with a decrease in volume, and momentum remaining close to zero, for at least another two weeks.

Within the barrier triangle minor wave D may not move substantially below the end of minor wave B. Although it looks most likely that minor wave D is complete now, it could move a little lower. As long as the B-D trend line remains flat this wave count will remain valid.

Minor wave E should subdivide as a single zigzag and may not move above the end of minor wave C at 22.224.

This main wave count expects price to break out to the downside once the sideways structure is complete.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th April, 2014

Price has mostly moved sideways since last analysis. The wave count is the same.

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Silver daily 2014

Minor wave B still looks like it is unfolding as a regular contracting triangle.

This wave count expects upwards movement to complete minute wave d as a single zigzag.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 22.224.

If minute wave c continues lower it may not move beyond the end of minute wave a at 18.585.

Overall this wave count expects to see very choppy, overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet in an ever decreasing range.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th April, 2014

The wave count was invalidated with downwards movement. I was too quick to label the C wave of the triangle as complete.

Overall the wave count remains the same.

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Silver daily 2014

Minor wave B still looks like it is unfolding as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle minute wave c now has a better more typical look, and so with this anlaysis I am more confident it is finally over. Minute wave c is now an 82% correction of minute wave b which is a very typical length and gives the triangle the “right look”.

This wave count now expects more upwards movement to complete minute wave d as a single zigzag.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 22.224.

If minute wave c continues lower it may not move beyond the end of minute wave a at 18.585.

Overall this wave count expects to see very choppy, overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet in an ever decreasing range.

Silver hourly 2014

The structure of minute wave c is complete and looks clearly like a “three” on the daily chart.

Within minute wave d no second wave correction nor B wave may move beyond its start below 19.232.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 7th April, 2014

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to a target at 19.13 before a trend change. The trend change had already happened at 19.579 and price did not move lower.

Overall the wave count remains the same.

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Silver daily 2013

Minor wave B looks like it is unfolding as a regular contracting triangle. Within the triangle minute wave c recently ended as a double zigzag.

This wave count now expects more upwards movement to complete minute wave d as a single zigzag.

Minute wave d may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 22.224.

When minute wave d is complete then a final wave down for minute wave e would end the triangle. Minute wave e may not move below 19.579.

Overall this wave count expects to see very choppy, overlapping sideways movement for a few weeks yet in an ever decreasing range.

Silver daily 2013

Within minute wave d minuette wave (a) subdivides as a leading expanding diagonal.

Minuette wave (b) is an incomplete zigzag. I would expect to see it move a little lower or sideways before it is done.

Minuette wave (c) should move price higher, beyond the end of minuette wave (a) at 20.235.

At 21.695 minute wave d would reach 80% the length of minute wave c. This is a common wave length for waves within triangles.

Minuette wave (b) may not move below the start of minuette wave (a) at 19.579.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th March, 2014

Last analysis expected a three wave movement upwards for an X wave which is exactly what happened. The structure of the current correction is incomplete. I would expect overall another six days minimum of choppy overlapping movement.

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Silver daily 2013

Minute wave iv may be unfolding as a double combination in order to show structural alternation with minute wave ii. So far within the combination the first structure, minuette wave (w), is an expanded flat correction.

Sideways movement continues. Minute wave iv is incomplete.

Minuette wave (x) unfolded as expected as an upwards zigzag.

Overall I expect more very choppy overlapping movement for minute wave iv for about another six days minimum, but it may last longer. It may find support at the lower end of the pink parallel channel.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.359.

Silver daily 2013

Minuette wave (w) subdivides perfectly as an expanded flat correction.

Minuette wave (y) may be either a flat, zigzag or triangle correction (in order of probability). If it is a flat then minute wave iv would be a double flat. If it is a zigzag or triangle then minute wave iv would be a double combination. The purpose of double flats and double combinations is the same: to move price sideways and take up time.

Within minuette wave (y) so far the first downwards wave of subminuette wave a looks best as a zigzag. This indicates that minuette wave (y) may be most likely a flat correction or possibly a triangle. Either structure would be expected to move price overall sideways for a few days yet.

If minuette wave (y) is a flat correction then within it subminuette wave b must reach a minimum of 90% the length of subminuette wave a at 21.6575.

If minuette wave (y) is a triangle there is no minimum upwards point that subminuette wave b must reach.

The whole structure for minute wave iv, whether it be a double flat or a double combination, should move price sideways. This means the second structure in the double is likely to end about the same level as the first. Minuette wave (y) is likely to end about 21.002 or a little below this point, but not significantly below.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 19th February, 2014

Last analysis had two targets for upwards movement. The first target at 21.872 has been reached and slightly passed (by 0.176 to 22.048) and the structure is complete. I expect upwards movement to stop here and a sideways correction to begin which should last about 18 days.

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Silver daily 2013

I had expected minute wave iii to end in either a Fibonacci 13 or 21 days, and I had favoured the longer duration. I now expect that it is over and it has ended in 13 days.

I expect the upwards trend to be interrupted here by a sideways consolidation for minute wave iv.

Minute wave ii was a deep expanded flat correction. Given the guideline of alternation I expect minute wave iv to be a double combination or triangle. It is most likely to be relatively shallow ending about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave iii at 20.793.

Minute wave ii lasted 18 days. I would expect minute wave iv to be about the same duration.

Use Elliott’s first technique to draw a channel about minor wave C. Draw the first trend line from the highs labeled minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy on the low labeled minute wave ii. I expect minute wave iv to find support at the lower edge of the channel, if it gets down that far.

Minute wave iv may not move into minute wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 20.359.

Silver daily 2013

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th February, 2014

Last analysis expected a little more downwards movement to a target just below 19.327 before a trend change and a third wave up.

Price did move lower to reach 19.002 and has turned up. However, I still would like to see the channel on the daily chart clearly breached before I have confidence in this trend change and the targets calculated.

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Silver daily 2013

The bigger picture for Silver expects a large grand super cycle second wave correction may be unfolding downwards.

The correction may be at grand super cycle degree, or it may be a fourth wave correction at super cycle degree.

Both of these possibilities require more downwards movement for the structure to complete.

The structure unfolding downwards is a double zigzag. The first zigzag in the double is labeled primary wave W. The double is joined by a “three” in the opposite direction which is a contracting triangle labeled primary wave X.

The second zigzag is incomplete and labeled primary wave Y. Within the second zigzag intermediate wave (B) is a zigzag and is incomplete.

Within intermediate wave (B) the final wave for minor wave C upwards is incomplete. At 25.49 minor wave C would reach equality with minor wave A. It should end about the upper trend line.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A). This wave count is invalidated with movement above 34.515.

Silver daily 2013

Within minor wave C minute waves i and now ii are complete. However, a clear channel breach of the blue parallel channel containing the zigzag of minor wave B is required to provide trend channel confirmation that minor wave B is over and minor wave C is underway. When there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line then I would have confidence in this trend change.

Within minor wave C minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i at 21.872. If price keeps rising through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure for minute wave iii is incomplete, then I would use the second target. At 23.646 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about minute waves i and ii (pink upwards sloping channel). Minute wave iii should breach the upper edge of this channel and should show an increase in upwards momentum. Along the way up any corrections should find support at the lower edge of the channel.

Within minute wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 19.002.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th January, 2014

At the daily chart level it looks like minute wave ii is incomplete and found resistance at the upper edge of the channel.

I would expect a little more downwards movement overall to complete an ending contracting diagonal, which should be followed by overall upwards movement. The target for downwards movement to end is just below 19.327. Downwards movement should not breach 18.585.

When there is a full daily candlestick above the channel and not touching the upper trend line then I would have confidence in a trend change.

Click on the chart below to enlarge.

Silver daily 2013