Tag Archives: lara elliott wave

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 12th February, 2016

Downwards movement was expected for Friday’s session.

Price moved overall lower in a small inside day.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th January, 2016

Downwards movement was expected to end soon and be followed by upwards movement.

There was no more downwards movement. Price turned and moved higher.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th January, 2016

Downwards movement was expected to end soon and be followed by upwards movement.

There was no more downwards movement. Price turned and moved higher.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th January, 2016

GDX Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st December, 2015

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX monthly bear 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

The bull wave counts for Gold have been invalidated, so I will not follow them for GDX. I will let Gold lead GDX.

GDX has been in a bear market since September 2011. While price remains below the upper edge of the channel drawn here there has been no technical confirmation of a trend change from bear to bull. The bear market should be expected to remain intact until there is confirmation it is not.

At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage, it will not fit as an ending diagonal, so the more common impulse should be expected to complete.

Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 16.45 within the impulse of intermediate wave (5).

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave 3 is close to an end.

At 12.37 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iv) at this stage looks like it may be a completed regular contracting triangle. If the triangle is invalided by movement above 14.07, then this fourth wave may be morphing into a combination. At that stage, the alternate below should be used.

Minute wave v fits nicely within an Elliott channel at this stage. If price remains within the channel and moves lower, then minuette wave v may be complete. Thereafter, a breach of the channel would confirm that minuette wave v is over, so minor wave 3 should be over.

ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that the triangle is subminuette wave b within a zigzag for minuette wave (iv).

This would see minuette wave (iv) move higher for a couple to a few days. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 15.61.

This idea must have a lower probability because it would see minuette wave (iv) breach the Elliott channel and there would be less alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GDX daily 2014
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX indicates there is no clear trend. ATR agrees as it is declining.

On Balance Volume sits between two parallel trend lines. A break out of this range by OBV may precede price direction.

As price moves sideways volume declines. There is no support for upwards days. Overall, the volume profile for recent movement looks more bearish than bullish.

GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th November, 2015

An upwards breakout of a triangle was expected.

Price broke out downwards, which was confirmed with a new low below 1,066.63.

The Elliot wave count has changed.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th November, 2015

The trend was expected to be down.

Price continued lower.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th November, 2015

Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement to be over at yesterday’s low or shortly thereafter.

Price has continued substantially lower.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 30th October, 2015

More downwards movement was expected for all wave counts.

Targets were inadequate, but price did move lower and remained below the invalidation point which was close by.

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th October, 2015

Downwards movement was expected, but price has moved mostly sideways to complete a small green candlestick.

Continue reading GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 27th October, 2015