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SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th June, 2017

Stops should have been set just above 16.726. If they were set, they were triggered on the 23rd of June closing short positions for a profit.

Summary: Silver is range bound with support about 16.05 – 15.70 and resistance about 18.55 – 18.65. Currently, it looks like a downwards swing has ended and an upwards swing is in its early stage.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIRST WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. The second structure, a flat correction for primary wave Y, may be underway.

Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 15.938. The common range for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A). The target calculated would see intermediate wave (B) reach to within the common range and pass its minimum requirement. If minor wave B moves any higher, then the target for intermediate wave (B) must also move correspondingly higher.

Intermediate wave (B) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (A), as in an expanded flat, which are very common structures.

The bigger picture for cycle wave b would expect primary wave Y to end about the same level as primary wave W about 21.062. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double normally ends about the same level as the first.

The maximum number of corrective structures is three within combinations (and multiple zigzags). This maximum applies to sub-waves W, Y and Z. Within these structures, they may only be labelled as simple A-B-C corrections (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of triangles). They may not themselves be labeled multiples as that would increase the number of corrections within the structure beyond three and violate the rule.

X waves are joining structures and they are not counted in the maximum total of three (otherwise the maximum would be five). X waves may be any corrective structure, including multiples.

While the combination wave count at the weekly chart level does not currently work for Gold, it does still work for Silver. They do not have to complete the same structures for cycle wave b, and fairly often their structures are different.

FIRST DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A strong breach of the channel drawn in last analysis began on the 23rd of June and indicated that the last wave down for minute wave i was over.

Minute wave ii may now also be over, or it may continue further sideways or higher. If it does continue higher, it should find strong resistance at the upper edge of the Elliott channel.

When minute wave ii is complete, then downwards movement should show an increase in momentum for minute wave iii.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 17.742.

SECOND WEEKLY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that cycle wave b may be completing as a triangle. Mostly because combinations are more common than triangles is this a second wave count.

Within a triangle, only one of the sub-waves may be a more complicated multiple. Primary wave B subdivides as a double zigzag. Primary waves C, D and E may only be single threes.

Within a contracting or barrier triangle, primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 21.062.

To label primary wave C over at the last high of the 17th of April would see the A-C trend line too steeply sloped to have a normal look. It would be only a 0.55 length of primary wave B, which is unusually short for a triangle sub-wave. It would look more likely that primary wave C is not over.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D (nor any part of primary wave C) may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 15.638.

Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D should end about the same point as primary wave B. As long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat the triangle will remain valid. In practice, this means that primary wave D may move slightly below the end of primary wave B (this is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white).

The final wave of primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C. It would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

This second wave count expects a large consolidation to continue for months.

SECOND DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C may be an incomplete zigzag.

A new high above 18.641 would at this stage invalidate the first wave count and provide some confirmation of this second wave count.

Minor wave 2 may now be complete. Minor wave 3 may be underway.

This second wave count does not have support from this week’s classic technical analysis, so it is less likely than the first wave count.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 16.368.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume now suggests a downwards breakout from the trading range is more likely than upwards.

Overall, Silver is in a large consolidation at the weekly chart level. Support is about 16.05 – 15.70 and resistance is about 18.55 – 18.65. ADX agrees that price is consolidating.

The long lower wick on the last completed weekly candlestick is bullish. The last downwards swing within the consolidation now looks likely to be over, so an upwards swing may now be in its early stages and may last a few weeks.

DAILY CHART

Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The very long lower wick on the candlestick for the 26th of June is very bullish; it completed a Hammer candlestick reversal pattern. It looks like a low is in place at least short term.

Volume is not at this time supporting upwards movement. That may change but for now this should be read as bearish.

The long upper wick on the last daily candlestick is bearish for the short term. Look for a red daily candlestick for Silver tomorrow.

TRADING ADVICE (for members only)

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This analysis is published @ 01:33 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 29th June, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd June, 2017

Last analysis expected downwards movement, which is what has happened.

Members who took last week’s trading advice to enter short on the bounce of the 14th of June should now have profitable positions. Advice is given this week on how to manage those profitable positions.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd June, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2017

After publication of last week’s analysis price broke above the channel on the 2 hourly chart, indicating a trend change. The 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci ratios were targets. Price rose up to 17.027, just 0.025 of the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th May, 2017

Last week’s analysis provided a trend channel on the 2 hourly chart and advised to assume the downwards trend remained while price remained within the channel. This is what has happened so far.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 10th May, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th May, 2017

Last week’s analysis expected it was fairly likely price may continue to fall at least slightly below 16.82. This is what has happened.

Summary: Assume the trend remains the same until proven otherwise. Draw a channel about downwards movement on an hourly chart to contain it all. Only when that channel is breached expect the downwards wave is over.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A very large zigzag may be unfolding downwards for Super Cycle wave (a).

The first wave down within a zigzag must subdivide as a five. Cycle wave a will fit as a five wave impulse.

Cycle wave b may be any corrective structure. It may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a above 49.752.

The two weekly charts below look at two different structures for cycle wave b.

FIRST WEEKLY CHART

Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. The second structure, a flat correction for primary wave Y, may be underway.

Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 15.938. The common range for intermediate wave (B) is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A).

Intermediate wave (B) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of intermediate wave (A), as in an expanded flat, which are very common structures.

The bigger picture for cycle wave b would expect primary wave Y to end about the same level as primary wave W about 21.062. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double normally ends about the same level as the first.

The maximum number of corrective structures is three within combinations (and double zigzags). This maximum applies to sub-waves W, Y and Z. Within these structures, they may only be labelled as simple A-B-C corrections (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of triangles). They may not themselves be labeled multiples as that would increase the number of corrections within the structure beyond three and violate the rule.

X waves are joining structures and they are not counted in the maximum total of three (otherwise the maximum would be five). X waves may be any corrective structure, including multiples.

FIRST DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) may be unfolding as a zigzag. Within Intermediate wave (B), minor wave A looks like an impulse. Minor wave B may not move beyond its start above 18.641.

Now that price has broken below the cyan support line this line may offer resistance. It may force minor wave B to be shallow.

If price breaks back above this line, then it may offer some support again.

SECOND WEEKLY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that cycle wave b may be completing as a triangle. Only because combinations are more common than triangles is this a second wave count.

Within a triangle, only one of the sub-waves may be a more complicated multiple. Primary wave B subdivides as a double zigzag. Primary waves C, D and E may only be single threes.

Within a contracting or barrier triangle, primary wave C may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 21.062.

Within a contracting triangle, primary wave D (nor any part of primary wave C) may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 15.638.

Within a barrier triangle, primary wave D should end about the same point as primary wave B. As long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat the triangle will remain valid. In practice, this means that primary wave D may move slightly below the end of primary wave B (this is the only Elliott wave rule which is not black and white).

The final wave of primary wave E may not move beyond the end of primary wave C. It would most likely fall short of the A-C trend line.

This second wave count expects a large consolidation to continue for months.

SECOND DAILY CHART

Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C may be an incomplete zigzag.

A new high above 18.641 would at this stage invalidate the first wave count and provide some confirmation of this second wave count.

A new low reasonably below 15.638 would see this second wave count invalidated and the first wave count increase in probability.

2 HOURLY CHART

Silver 2 hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This channel contains almost all downwards movement. The upper edge is the important point. If price breaks above this, then assume the downwards wave is over and a new upwards wave has begun.

This is the simplest and safest approach to this market at this time.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Unless Friday’s session closes with very strong volume, this week may see a decline in volume for another downwards week. This would complete a Three Black Crows candlestick pattern, the opposite of Three White Soldiers. Coming after some increase, this would be a reversal pattern.

There is room for price to continue to fall here. RSI is not yet oversold.

DAILY CHART

Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Volume is bearish. On Balance Volume is very bearish.

ATR is slightly bearish. Bollinger Bands are bearish.

If RSI exhibits divergence with price at lows, then it would be a strong warning of a low in place, at least temporarily.

RSI can remain extreme for long periods of time during a strong bearish trend for Silver (look back at September 2014 for evidence of this statement). While RSI moving well into oversold is a warning, it does not mean that price has to bounce here.

The best evidence of an end to this downwards trend would be a strong candlestick reversal pattern (such as a Bullish Engulfing pattern) or a strong breach of a channel, which may be drawn on an hourly chart about this fall.

This analysis is published @ 04:16 a.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th May, 2017

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017

On Balance Volume gave a signal early in the week that a deeper pullback may unfold. Price found support at the Fibonacci 55 day moving average before turning upwards.

Continue reading SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th April, 2017