Tag Archives: silver technical analysis eliott

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2015

The following charts are in no particular order.

WAVE COUNT #1

Silver daily 2015
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Silver daily 2015
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WAVE COUNT #2

Silver daily 2015
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Silver daily 2015
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WAVE COUNT #3

Silver daily 2015
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Silver daily 2015
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Please feel free to add your own wave count ideas for Silver in comments below.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th March, 2015

I have a new Elliott wave count for Silver which is in line with Gold. I will let the Gold analysis lead Silver and GDX, not the other way around, so the new wave count is the main wave count.

Charts only today.

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Main Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

If cycle wave a is over and Silver, Gold and GDX have all recently seen cycle degree trend changes, then importantly for Silver cycle wave a subdivides as a double zigzag.

A double zigzag is a multiple, and the maximum number of corrective structures in a multiple is three. Any wave count which labels W, Y or Z as W-X-Y within them is invalid. W, Y and Z waves may only be simple corrective structures labelled A-B-C (or A-B-C-D-E in the case of a triangle).

Super Cycle II may not be a multiple and must be a flat correction. Within a flat correction the A wave must be a three, and a double zigzag is classified as a three.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b must retrace a minimum 90% the length of cycle wave a at 46.279. This would suggest a higher target for Gold should be calculated.

Within a flat correction cycle wave b may make a new all time high above the start of cycle wave a, as in an expanded flat.

The most likely structure for cycle wave b to take price that high is a zigzag.

Silver daily 2015

If cycle wave b is unfolding as a zigzag then within it primary wave A should be a five wave structure, either an impulse or a leading diagonal.

It is very difficult to see the first upwards movement as a five, but it can be seen as a three. Within a leading diagonal sub waves 1, 3 and 5 are most commonly zigzags. Primary wave A may be unfolding as a leading diagonal.

Intermediate wave (2) is 0.72 of intermediate wave (1), nicely within the common depth for a second or fourth wave of a diagonal of between 0.66 to 0.81.

Intermediate wave (3) must move above the end of intermediate wave (1) above 18.486. It is most likely to unfold as a zigzag.

If intermediate wave (2) continues lower it may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 14.077.

Alternate Wave Count

Silver weekly 2015

This was the prior only wave count for Silver. At the weekly chart level minor wave 2 does look to be too large.

Silver daily 2015

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 18.486.

Targets remain the same. At 11.52 intermediate wave (C) would reach 0.618 the length of intermediate wave (A). At 5.309 intermediate wave (C) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (A).

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd March, 2015

I’ve struggled to figure out what Silver has been doing on the daily chart for this last month. I think the market is now a little clearer.

Charts only today.

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Silver weekly 2015

Silver daily 2015

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 5th December, 2014

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Main Wave Count

Silver daily 2014

At 18.430 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Alternate Wave Count

Silver daily alternate 2014

This is possible but unlikely. Minor wave 2 is too brief and shallow to have the “right look”.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st December, 2014

Downwards movement invalidated both daily Elliott wave counts, published two days ago. This Elliott wave count is updated and still expects upwards movement.

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Silver daily 2014

At 18.430 minute wave iii would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave i. This is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 18.812. The target may be about two weeks away.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2014

Last Elliott Wave analysis of Silver expected upwards movement which is what has happened. This correction is incomplete. I have a new alternate daily wave count for you.

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Silver daily 2014

If intermediate wave (C) is incomplete then only minor wave 1 within it is done. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the end of minor wave 1 above 21.579.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 18.812. It should subdivide as a clear three.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave a is a completed leading contracting diagonal. Minute wave b is incomplete. If my analysis of minute wave a as a five wave structure is correct then minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a below 15.067. If this invalidation point is breached then my analysis of minute wave a as a five is wrong and it may have been a three. Silver usually has clear threes and fives, but not always. I am reasonably confident 15.067 will not be breached because the upwards wave fits best and looks like a five.

When minute wave b looks like a three on the daily chart then I would expect a five up for minute wave c. When I know where minute wave b ends and minute wave c begins I can calculate a target for upwards movement using the ratio between a and c. I cannot do that yet.

Alternate Wave Count

Silver daily alternate 2014

By simply moving the degree of labelling within intermediate wave (C) up one degree it is possible that the recent trend change was at cycle degree for Silver. If intermediate wave (C) is over then it was 0.285 longer than 0.382 the length of intermediate wave (A).

This works also for GDX, but it does not work for Gold well at all. Because Gold has the greatest volume and so the clearest looking waves I would let Gold lead here, and so I think this alternate idea for both Silver and GDX has a low probability. If any one of these three markets confirms this alternate (in the case of Gold if its wave count is invalidated at the daily chart level) then I would expect a all three markets may have seen a big trend change.

Within the new upwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 15.067. Minute wave ii should unfold further as a clear three on the daily chart. It is probably not over yet, and I would expect it to continue for another two (minimum) or six days. It should be choppy and overlapping, mostly sideways. While this unfolds for Silver and GDX, Gold may be completing its second wave correction and beginning a 1-2 for the start of its third wave up.

SILVER Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 18th November, 2014

Summary: I expect upwards movement to about 18.812.

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Silver daily 2014

This wave count is changed from last publication. If minor wave 1 was over lower and more recently, then it has a better fit.

Ratios within minor wave 1 are: minute wave iii is 0.81 longer than 4.236 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is just 0.04 longer than 0.618 the length of minute wave iii.

Minute wave iii has the strongest downwards momentum. Minute wave v ends with an overshoot of the Elliott channel. This impulse has a typical look.

Minor wave 2 is most likely to reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 about 18.812. Minor wave 1 lasted 86 days, just three short of a Fibonacci 89. Minor wave 2 may total a Fibonacci 34 or 55 days. So far it has lasted seven days.