Upwards movement was unexpected for Friday.
Overall more downwards movement was expected and did happen, but a small bounce was expected to end about 1,270 first and that did not happen.
Price moved higher for Friday’s session, which was not expected but was allowed for. Price remains below the invalidation point on the main hourly Elliott wave count.
This week volume and ATR are giving some clues as to what the upwards movement for the last three days most likely means.
Upwards movement invalidated the main hourly Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate. The target is now adjusted.
More sideways movement has unfolded exactly as expected.
The breakout is still expected in another one or four days.
Last analysis expected a correction to continue. Upwards movement remains below the high and is choppy and overlapping, although it was substantial.
Downwards movement was expected for Friday’s session.
Price moved overall lower in a small inside day.
Elliott wave charts only today.
A correction was expected to continue.
Another small inside day fits this expectation.
MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
The bull wave counts for Gold have been invalidated, so I will not follow them for GDX. I will let Gold lead GDX.
GDX has been in a bear market since September 2011. While price remains below the upper edge of the channel drawn here there has been no technical confirmation of a trend change from bear to bull. The bear market should be expected to remain intact until there is confirmation it is not.
At 11.22 intermediate wave (5) would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (1).
Intermediate wave (5) must subdivide as a five wave structure, either an impulse or an ending diagonal. At this stage, it will not fit as an ending diagonal, so the more common impulse should be expected to complete.
Minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 16.45 within the impulse of intermediate wave (5).
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave 3 is close to an end.
At 12.37 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iv) at this stage looks like it may be a completed regular contracting triangle. If the triangle is invalided by movement above 14.07, then this fourth wave may be morphing into a combination. At that stage, the alternate below should be used.
Minute wave v fits nicely within an Elliott channel at this stage. If price remains within the channel and moves lower, then minuette wave v may be complete. Thereafter, a breach of the channel would confirm that minuette wave v is over, so minor wave 3 should be over.
ALTERNATE ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
It is also possible that the triangle is subminuette wave b within a zigzag for minuette wave (iv).
This would see minuette wave (iv) move higher for a couple to a few days. It may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 15.61.
This idea must have a lower probability because it would see minuette wave (iv) breach the Elliott channel and there would be less alternation between minuette waves (ii) and (iv).
ADX indicates there is no clear trend. ATR agrees as it is declining.
On Balance Volume sits between two parallel trend lines. A break out of this range by OBV may precede price direction.
As price moves sideways volume declines. There is no support for upwards days. Overall, the volume profile for recent movement looks more bearish than bullish.
An inside day with light volume fits the Elliott wave count.
Yesterday’s analysis expected downwards movement to be over at yesterday’s low or shortly thereafter.
Price has continued substantially lower.