Tag Archives: us oil rate prediction

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd January, 2017

Price has moved slightly higher for the week with a slightly higher high and a slightly higher low from the prior week.

The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

Price has moved overall lower as last week’s Elliott wave and technical analysis expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

The target for upwards movement to end was at 58.05. It has not been met. The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Summary: Downwards movement is now expected to at least 28.61. The target is at 25.59. A new low below 49.96 would add confidence that price has turned downwards.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

MONTHLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

Primary wave 4 is likely to exhibit alternation with primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 is most likely to be a flat, combination or triangle. Within all of these types of structures, the first movement subdivides as a three. The least likely structure for primary wave 4 is a zigzag.

Primary wave 4 is likely to end within the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree; intermediate wave (4) has its range from 42.03 to 62.58.

Primary wave 4 may end if price comes up to touch the upper edge of the maroon channel. The upper edge of this channel has been pushed up to sit on the end of intermediate wave (2) within primary wave 3.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be shallow to exhibit alternation in depth with primary wave 2. So far it has passed the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio at 45.52. It may now continue to move mostly sideways in a large range.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

At this stage, primary wave 4 has completed intermediate wave (A) only. Intermediate wave (B) is incomplete.

DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) still looks like it is unfolding as a flat correction. Within intermediate wave (B), minor wave A is a zigzag and minor wave B is now a complete zigzag.

Minor wave B is a 1.29 length of minor wave A. This is within the normal range of 1 to 1.38. This indicates intermediate wave (B) is an expanded flat, as within it minor wave B is longer than 1.05 the length of minor wave A.

It must be accepted that minor wave B could continue higher while price remains above the confidence point at 49.96. A new low below the start of minuette wave (v) at 49.96 could not be a second wave correction within the last fifth wave up, so at that stage confidence may be had in a trend change.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

Minor wave C downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Because intermediate wave (A) fits so well as a three wave structure, it is still most likely that intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61. When an A wave subdivides as a three, then a flat correction is indicated.

The normal range for intermediate wave (B) within a flat correction is from 1 to 1.38 the length of intermediate wave (A) giving a range from 26.06 to 16.33.

Price has broken below the lower edge of the channel, which was drawn on the daily chart in the last analysis. Price behaviour around the upwards sloping green trend line suggests a trend change. Price may now find resistance about the downwards sloping green trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last five sessions, the two downwards sessions have stronger volume than the upwards sessions. This suggests the trend may now be down.

ADX has today indicated a possible trend change to downwards: the -DX line has crossed above the +DX line. The ADX line is declining though, so no new trend is yet indicated.

The short term Fibonacci 21 day moving average has today turned downwards, but it remains above the mid and long term averages and those both remain pointing upwards. If there has been a trend change, then it is very early.

Price found resistance about 54.15 and 55.55. The next line of support is currently held at 52.05 and then at 50.30.

ATR has had a period of decline as price moved higher. This supports the Elliott wave count because it sees that upwards movement as a B wave. Now ATR may be beginning to increase.

On Balance Volume gives no indication yet of direction. It remains constrained below resistance and above support.

RSI has just crossed over to bearish territory today.

Stochastics is bearish and is not extreme. There is plenty of room for price to fall.

Bollinger Bands are tightly contracted.

This analysis is published @ 10:54 p.m. EST.

[Note: Analysis is public today for promotional purposes. Member comments and discussion will remain private.]

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 9th January, 2017

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

Upwards movement is continuing as expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 24th December, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2016

Another small consolidation unfolded as expected finding support at the trend line on the daily Elliott wave chart. Thereafter, upwards movement has continued as expected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 20th December, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th December, 2016

Upwards movement has continued as expected from last Elliott wave analysis.

The small consolidation also unfolded as expected and remained above the invalidation point at 46.57.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th December, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th December, 2016

Last analysis was invalidated by upwards movement, which was unexpected.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 6th December, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2016

Last analysis expected downwards movement.

Price has moved overall lower for the week.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 28th November, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd November, 2016

Last analysis expected an upwards correction was not over.

Price has overall moved higher but remains below the invalidation point.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 22nd November, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th November, 2016

The Elliott wave count remains the same.

Classic technical analysis is used to determine if current upwards movement is a new trend or a correction.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 15th November, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th November, 2016

Again, downwards movement continues as expected.

The target and minimum requirement remain the same based on Elliott wave structure.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 8th November, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2016

Last week the US Oil Elliott wave and classic technical analyses were in agreement that there had been a trend change for Oil.

Downwards movement was expected. This is what happened.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1st November, 2016

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2016

Last analysis was down to only one Elliott wave count as the structure became clearer.

A short term target for a little more upwards movement was at 53.30. Price has reached so far up to 51.93.

Continue reading US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th October, 2016