For the short term, some upwards movement was expected for US Oil. Although Friday ended with very strong downwards movement, the week made a higher high and a higher low.
Last week’s analysis expected that US Oil had begun a deeper and longer lasting consolidation. A downwards week with a lower low and a lower high fits this expectation.
The pullback has reached the lilac trend line where it was expected to find support.
Last week’s analysis expected an upwards trend in place, and suggested pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.
Last analysis expected more upwards movement for the week, which is what has happened.
A new high on Friday for US Oil shifts the probabilities of the three daily Elliott wave counts.
A small inside week closing as a doji saw only sideways movement from Oil. This leaves the analysis the same.
The new Elliott wave count is bullish.
A short term pullback was expected, but price moved lower only slightly and briefly before making new highs.
A new high above 66.65 has substantially reduced the probability of the main Elliott wave count and increased the probability of the alternate. This week the two wave counts should be swapped over.
Downwards movement continued this week exactly as expected.
A bounce was expected to continue, with the target at 65.05. So far price has reached up to 65.99.
Another small range week, this time an inside week, does not change the Elliott wave analysis.
A small bounce was expected before the continuation of a downwards trend. Price has moved slightly lower for the week, but with a very small real body mostly price moved sideways. The outlook remains the same.