Tag Archives: US Oil

Trading Room – 20th March, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at US Oil only.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

US Oil (WTI Crude – Spot)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

US Oil is in a clear downwards trend that is not yet extreme. There will be corrections along the way; price does not move in a straight line. Corrections within a trend present an opportunity to join the trend. The challenge is to find when the correction is over.

Price was previously range bound for a long period of time with support about 51.22 to 50.70. On the 8th of March price broke below support on a strong downwards day with strong volume. This was a classic downwards breakout.

It looks now like Oil is in a small correction, curving up to find resistance at prior support about 50.70.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

A larger flat correction may be unfolding for a fourth wave (EWG members should refer to the US Oil monthly chart for the bigger picture here). Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 28.61.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

TRADING ROOM SUMMARY TABLES

OPEN POSITIONS

Trading Room Open Positions 2017
Click table to enlarge.

CLOSED POSITIONS

Trading Room Closed Positions March 2017
Click table to enlarge.

RECOMMENDATIONS

[Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

 

This analysis is published @ 02:16 a.m. EST.

The Trading Room – 15th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at Natural Gas and USDJPY.

To learn what the Trading Room is about see first Trading Room analysis here.

Trading Room will focus on classic technical analysis. Elliott wave analysis will be for support and for targets / invalidation points.

Natural Gas – NGAS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NGAS Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

In the mid term, there is a new downwards trend for Gas. Use the Magee trend line for resistance.

In the short term, price may bounce up here from the 200 day moving average. The slight decline in volume for the last two days, along with small range days, looks like bears are temporarily exhausted. Expect a bounce as fairly likely.

This chart looks very bearish.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

NGAS Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The trend channel about cycle wave b has been breached now at the weekly and daily chart level. This may offer some confidence in a trend change.

DAILY CHART

NGAS Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be complete. A cycle wave c down may be in the early stages. This wave should last one to several years if the wave count is correct. The lower edge of the channel about cycle wave b is now breached by two daily candlesticks.

Look for bounces to find resistance at the Magee trend line.

I do have an alternate wave count, but it too is bearish at this time. Publication of it would add nothing to the analysis. If any member wants it, then please email me and I’ll send it to you.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price has moved upwards, as expected, since last publication of analysis of this pair. There is now a full daily candlestick above the blue line, which previously provided resistance and may now provide support.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This market is behaving as expected so far. Elliott wave targets may be used as profit targets.

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 12:35 a.m. EST.

The Trading Room – 13th February, 2017

Today’s Trading Room looks at USDJPY, USD Index, NZDUSD, EURUSD and US Oil (by popular demand).

To learn what the Trading Room is about see last Trading Room analysis here.

USDJPY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the long term, assume the trend remains up until proven otherwise. The long term 200 day moving average still has a positive slope, and the short and mid term averages are still above it.

For the mid term, price has seen a relatively deep pullback. The question will be: Is this over and will the upwards trend resume?

Price is at support just above 111 (horizontal support and resistance lines are drawn after looking back 3 years). Resistance is just above 114 and next about 116.

There is some bullish divergence with RSI, but RSI did not reach oversold for this pullback.

The risk here is that the pullback may move lower and RSI may develop double divergence with price before price turns up.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count has excellent alternation and Fibonacci ratios. There are also some close Fibonacci durations for waves.

If intermediate wave (4) moves lower, it should find strong support at the lower edge of the best fit channel. Double zigzags are reasonably common structures. Triple zigzags (labelled W-X-Y-X-Z) are very rare. If intermediate (4) is correctly labelled as a double zigzag, then the probability that it is over here is very high.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

USDJPY Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume increased during the middle portion of the pullback, and now at the last low volume declined as price fell; the market fell of its own weight. This points to a tired trend. Price certainly could move lower here, but the probability of a low in place has slightly increased.

On Balance Volume is at support. If it breaks below the yellow line, that would be a bearish signal.

USD INDEX

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price has moved upwards since last analysis of this market.

The long term trend should be assumed to remain upwards until proven otherwise. This downwards movement should be assumed to be a pullback within a larger upwards trend.

Looking back at price behaviour in the last upwards wave from the left of this chart: price starts out slowly with choppy movement, generally trending, and it is not until the middle of the movement that Bollinger Bands widen and ATR shows a good increase. Then the trend quickly became extreme, yet price continued upwards while ADX steadily declined from about 45. So trends for this market can remain very extreme for long periods of time.

The current situation looks similar to that back in September 2016: ATR is declining as price moves up, Bollinger Bands are contracting, ADX is low and below both directional lines, and RSI is neutral. In the current day, Stochastics is also returning from oversold and exhibits single bullish divergence at last lows.

It is looking like USD index may be in the very early stages of the next wave upwards.

Unfortunately, neither BarChart nor Stockcharts provide volume data for the USD Index, so no volume analysis can be done.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The structure of intermediate wave (3) and of primary wave 5 is incomplete. Price has found support and bounced up off the best fit channel. The short term yellow resistance line is breached. It is looking increasingly likely that USD index is beginning the next wave up.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

NZDUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Since last analysis of this pair, which was very bearish, price has fallen and closed below the short term Fibonacci 13 day moving average. The long, red daily candlesticks look bearish, and the longer upper wicks on the first two are bearish.

RSI is now neutral and Stochastics is returning from overbought. There is room for this wave down to continue.

ADX was extreme. It has a long way down to go before it would again indicate a trend.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The green support line has been fully breached.

The structure here is seen as a leading expanding diagonal. The fifth wave of minute wave v must be longer than minute wave iii to meet the rule regarding wave lengths for expanding diagonals. This gives the minimum target calculation.

A trend line is drawn about On Balance Volume, which has been tested at least three times before and is long held. It is now breached and OBV is coming up for a back test of resistance. If this line holds, it would be strengthened and more confidence would be had that price has turned.

The three red daily candlesticks in last week saw increasing volume. This supports downwards movement and adds confidence in a trend change here.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

EURUSD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Support and resistance lines are added this week. Look for support next at 1.055.

This pair is not as clearly bearish as NZDUSD, but it does look like they may be turning downwards together. Look out for Bollinger Bands to widen as volatility returns to this market.

Stochastics is returning from overbought after exhibiting divergence there. If it reaches oversold while price reaches support, then this market will be carefully analysed for any weakness in downwards movement.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

On Balance Volume remains bearish. A back test of resistance for both yellow trend lines has happened and OBV has turned down from both giving bearish signals.

The best fit channel has been breached. A one day throw back occurred right after the breach, but price may still curve up and around for a longer back test of resistance. That is the risk here to short positions.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

US Oil

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

US Oil entered a consolidation back in December 2016. Since then price has been fluctuating with typically choppy movement from resistance to support and back again. Resistance is about 54.15 to 54.35 and support is about 52.15 to as low as 50.70. During this long consolidation, it is now two upwards days that have strongest volume suggesting an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

On Balance Volume has last week given a strong bullish signal.

Prepare for an upwards breakout. This may happen this week.

A classic analysis target would expect price to travel at least the distance of the widest part of the consolidation after a breakout. That would expect a movement of about 4.53.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

USOil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

The Elliott wave analysis is overall very bearish for US Oil. This is an alternate wave count that is published here because it aligns with the classic technical analysis today.

This wave count expects essentially that any upwards breakout may be false and short lived.

Trading advice for members only: [Content protected for Elliott Wave Gold members only. To subscribe click here.]

DISCLAIMER

As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always use a stop.

2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.

Accept that this analysis may be wrong. It is impossible for any analyst to predict with certainty what a market will do next.

This analysis is published @ 06:27 p.m. EST on 12th February, 2017.

US Oil Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 14th November, 2013

Last week’s analysis of US Oil expected more downwards movement towards a target at 88.83 to 87.82. Price has moved lower. The structure is incomplete and the target has not yet been reached. The wave count remains the same.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil daily 2013

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. When I can see a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart I will have confidence in a trend change at cycle degree. So far the downwards structure for the first wave at minor degree is incomplete, and I cannot say that there is yet a clear five down.

Typical of commodities, the fifth wave is showing an overshoot of the parallel channel. When minute wave v completes minor wave 1 then I would expect upwards movement for several days to a couple of weeks or so for minor wave 2.

The parallel channel drawn here about minor wave 1 is drawn first with a trend line from the lows of minute waves i to iii, then a parallel copy is placed upon the high of minute wave ii. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then I would have confidence that minor wave 1 is completed and minor wave 2 is underway.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil 2 hourly 2013

This two hourly chart shows the end of minor wave 1. There is now divergence between MACD and price; as price moves lower MACD moves higher. I would expect divergence to continue between the end of minuette waves (iii) and (v) to come.

Minuette wave (iv) was a contracting triangle. Minuette wave (v) has begun. Within it a first and second wave are complete.

Draw the parallel channel about the impulse of minute wave v using Elliott’s second technique. Draw the first trend line from the highs of minuette waves (ii) (at 103.57) to minuette wave (iv), then place a parallel copy on the low of minuette wave (iii). I will expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of this channel, and it may overshoot the channel. Along the way down the upper edge of the channel should provide resistance.

When this channel is clearly breached by subsequent upwards movement that may be a first indication that minor wave 1 in it’s entirety is over and a time consuming deep second wave correction for minor wave 2 may have begun.

At 88.72 minuette wave (v) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

At 88.83 minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii.

I will expect this target now to be reached within a few days, probably before next week’s analysis.

Within minuette wave (v) no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 95.21.