A lower high and a lower low moved price lower for Monday’s session, which is overall what the main Elliott wave count expected. A public holiday in the USA for Presidents Day saw markets very quiet.
A breach of the trend channel and a new low below 1,195.82 invalidated the main Elliott wave count and confirmed the alternate.
Some weakness is seen in this upwards movement and price remains within a narrow channel on the hourly Elliott wave chart.
Another very small range day completes a small doji candlestick. This fits neatly with the expectations short term for the Elliott wave count.
A small upwards day fits all four Elliott wave counts. Price behaviour is now pointing to which wave count looks most likely.
Downwards movement was expected to continue for the main Elliott wave count after last analysis.
The target remains the same and the alternate now has a new target.
Again, upwards movement was expected to complete a small consolidation before price fell further.
The consolidation was already complete and price has made a new low.
The main hourly Elliott wave count expected a fourth wave correction to end within a range of 1,291.63 to 1,285.41.
Downwards movement for the session ended at 1,286.17. Thereafter, price has turned upwards as expected.
Yesterday’s main Elliott wave count expected downwards movement, but this has not happened.
Classic technical analysis will be used today to judge the probability of the main vs. alternate Elliott wave counts.
An outside day closes with a red candlestick, which slightly favours the main Elliott wave count.
Both Elliott wave counts remain viable while price remains within the consolidation / invalidation points.
Mostly sideways movement was expected for Monday.
A green daily doji candlestick fits expectations perfectly.
Upwards movement was expected.
Upwards movement was expected for Friday’s session but did not happen.
Price remains above the invalidation point on the daily chart, which is where final risk remains.