Tag Archives: where is nzdusd currently on elliot wave

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th November, 2016

Another possible opportunity may be coming up in another week or two for the NZDUSD pair, so it will be watched closely.

Continue reading NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 16th November, 2016

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th May, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Summary: NZDUSD may be beginning a new downwards trend. The target is 0.49809. Risk is at 0.70532.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

The volume profile is no longer clear. During minor wave 3 down, the trend was clearly down and supported by volume. During minor wave 4 upwards, the rise in price was supported by volume but the last upwards month of April shows a decline in volume.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 4 may be complete as a double combination: flat – X – zigzag.

The best fit channel about minute wave y is breached and now price is throwing back to the lower trend line. Price may bounce off this line and move lower.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 0.70532.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Price has breached a support line which has been tested at least three times and is long held. Price is turning up to test resistance at the line. It is likely that price would move lower from here.

From the last high on 3rd May as price falls volume rises. The fall in price is supported by volume so far, so it supports a downwards trend.

ADX indicates a downwards trend may be beginning. ATR does not yet agree; it is declining.

On Balance Volume is giving a strong bearish signal with a break below the green line.

Overall, the classic technical analysis picture supports the Elliott wave count.

This analysis is published @ 04:16 a.m. EST on 11th May, 2016.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4th February, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

The bigger picture indicates the trend should still be down. The structure is incomplete. So far within primary wave 3 each time price falls volume rises. January again saw a fall in price on increased volume. While the volume profile at the daily chart level is less clear, the monthly chart volume profile is more clear which gives confidence that the larger trend should still be down.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor waves 1, 2, 3 and now 4 are complete within intermediate (3). Minor 4 did not complete as a triangle and morphed into a combination. There is perfect alternation with minor waves 2 and 4.

Minute ii has come up to touch the 2-4 trend line. This may present a good opportunity to join the trend at a good price with low risk.

Sometimes the Kiwi exhibits volume spikes at the end of its movements. It did this several times in this chart. This may be because the New Zealand economy is heavily reliant upon dairy which is a commodity, so the currency may have some commodity like behaviours (this is my theory only).

The volume spike today may indicate an end to this upwards movement as price finds strong resistance at the trend line.

With minute ii such a deep time consuming correction, it looks like minor 5 may be extending (another commodity like behaviour). The target for it to complete intermediate wave (3) will remain the same at 0.49809 which would expect a long extension.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX today has turned up to indicate a new upwards trend. This does not support the Elliott wave count.

ATR is increasing, indicating a new trend.

This upwards movement has resolved RSI being oversold. It is not yet overbought. There is room for the market to rise.

As price rises for the last two days volume increases supporting the rise in price. Yet, sometimes the Kiwi exhibits a rise in volume with a rise in price for short term corrections and a volume spike at the end of a correction. This could be happening again (the session for the last daily candlestick may also not have finalised volume data; this spike may not be relied upon as it may disappear when the sessions data is final).

Overall, the regular technical analysis picture does not support the Elliott wave count as much as I would like for confidence. If the dark blue trend line is clearly breached, that would be a warning that the Elliott wave count may be wrong.

The strongest piece of analysis on this chart is the dark blue trend line. It is reasonably shallow and long held. It should offer strong resistance.

This analysis is published @ 05:20 p.m. EST.

NZDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 11th January, 2016

Elliott wave and traditional technical analysis of NZDUSD.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

NZDUSD monthly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary 3 should end when RSI indicates oversold and most likely not before. Currently RSI has returned just above oversold.

Primary 3 would reach 2.618 the length of primary 1 at 0.49809. The structure of primary 3 is incomplete.

NZDUSD daily 2015
Click chart to enlarge.

Within intermediate wave (3), minor waves 1, 2, and 3 are most likely complete. Minor wave 4 is now seen as an incomplete triangle.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minor waves 3 and 1.

At 0.60604 intermediate wave (3) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

Minor waves 2 and 4 exhibit alternation: minor wave 2 was a deeper double zigzag and minor wave 4 is a more shallow triangle.

Minor wave 4 is breaching a channel drawn about this movement using Elliott’s first technique. The channel may be redrawn when the triangle is complete.

The triangle will only remain valid if price remains below the high of minute wave c within it. Minute wave e is most likely to end short of the a-c trend line, and it may not move above the end of minute wave c at 0.68824. If price breaks above this point, then minor wave 4 is morphing into a combination.

The structure of minor wave 4 is incomplete.

To the downside, if minute wave d of the triangle moves lower, then it may not move substantially below the end of minute wave b below 0.64292. A new low below that point would indicate that minor wave 4 is most likely over and the downwards trend has resumed.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

ADX is flattening off in recent days indicating the market is range bound not trending. This supports the Elliott wave count.

ATR agrees. It is flat to declining. This indicator at this time is clearer than ADX. The market is not currently trending.

As price rises, it comes on a decline in volume. As price falls, it comes on a rise in volume. This volume profile is bearish and supports the Elliott wave count in terms of overall expected direction.

When NZDUSD trends it tends to find resistance at the 21 day EMA. Currently, it is whipsawing about this EMA, typical of a consolidating market.

My only concern with the volume profile is volume is not overall declining as price moves sideways. An overall decline in volume would be expected, if a fourth wave triangle is unfolding. I expect surprises may be to the downside for this market at this time because the last fall in price came on an increase in volume.

At the daily chart level, RSI is not oversold.

This analysis is published @ 10:17 p.m. EST.