Last week’s analysis expected some downwards movement towards a short term target at 22.463 to 22.481 before a trend change and upwards movement.
Price did move a little lower, but not as low as expected, falling 0.239 short of the target. We do not have confirmation of the trend change yet.
When the parallel channel on the hourly chart is breached by upwards movement then I shall have more confidence that the upwards trend has resumed.
Click on the charts below to enlarge.
A downwards zigzag is unfolding at primary wave degree. Within the zigzag intermediate wave (A) is complete. Intermediate wave (B) is an incomplete zigzag.
Within minor wave B the structure may be an almost complete zigzag, or this may only be minute wave a of a flat or double for minor wave B.
Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.
Within minor wave B the structure may be seen as complete. There is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves a and b of this zigzag.
Ratios within minute wave c are: minuette wave (iii) is 0.043 longer than equality with minuette wave (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.011 short of 0.236 the length of minuette wave (i).
Use Elliott’s technique to draw a parallel channel about minor wave B. Draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. When this channel is clearly breached by upwards movement then we shall have confirmation that the upwards trend has resumed.
At 27.039 minor wave C would reach 0.618 the length of minor wave A. Upwards movement may find resistance at the upper edge of the blue channel drawn about intermediate wave (B) on the daily chart.
While price remains well within the channel on the hourly chart we must accept the possibility that minor wave B may continue lower, but it may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 18.215.