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Last week expected one final fifth wave before a trend change. That is not what happened. The trend change may have already occurred.

Oil has been a frustrating market to analyse for the last month or so. I am very keen to get it right this week!

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2013

Cycle wave b may be complete already, as a double zigzag. Primary wave X within it was a contracting triangle.

Downwards movement of the last week shows clearly on the monthly chart. If this candle closes down that shall be strong indication of a trend change.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Downwards movement has clearly breached the parallel channel on the daily chart. This is strong indication of a trend change.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (A) and (C).

Ratios within intermediate wave (c) are: minor wave 3 is 0.95 short of 1.618 the length of minor wave 1, and minor wave 5 has no Fibonacci ratio to either of minor waves 1 and 3.

Minor wave 4 may have been a flat correction with a truncated minor wave C.

Within primary wave 1 of cycle wave c downwards no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Within recent downwards movement the middle of a third wave may have just passed.

Subminuette wave iii is just 0.62 short of 1.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

At 99.75 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave i lasted 3.25 days. This target may be about three days away.

At 97.96 minuette wave (iii) would reach 2.618 the length of minuette wave (i). This gives a short term target range of 1.79.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about minute waves i through to iii. The channel should be breached towards the end of minute wave iii. When this channel is breached I will have some more confidence in this wave count.

While minuette wave (iii) is incomplete subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.74.