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Last analysis expected a little upwards movement to either about 1,327 or 1,340. Price did move a little higher, but remains within the channel on the hourly chart.

The structure of the current wave is incomplete, and it should continue a little further. The wave count remains the same, and I have a new alternate for you.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

The structure for primary wave 4 cannot be a flat correction, because what would be the B wave is well less than 90% of what would be the A wave. That is why I have labeled it as a double.

Because intermediate wave (X) is quite shallow I would expect primary wave 4 is most likely a double zigzag rather than a double combination. Double combinations move price sideways and their X waves are usually deeper than this one is. Double zigzags trend against the main direction, and their purpose is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag did not take price deep enough. So I will be expecting intermediate wave (Y) to subdivide as a zigzag and to take price comfortably above 1,433.83. It should last about 35 to 45 days or sessions in total.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,251.76.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minute wave b is probably incomplete because it has not breached the parallel channel containing minute wave a, and because if it was over already it would be remarkably brief in comparison to minute wave a. Only minuette wave (a) within it is probably over. Because minuette wave (a) subdivides as a three wave structure then minute wave b is most likely a flat correction. It could also be a combination, a double or a triangle. There are still several possible structures which may unfold over the next 24 hours, and it is impossible today to say which one will eventuate. I will label this chart with the most common structure, a flat correction.

If minute wave b is a flat then within it minuette wave (b) must reach a minimum of 90% the length of minuette wave (a) at 1,308. Within a flat correction minuette wave (b) may make a new price extreme beyond the start of minuette wave (a), so a new low below 1,306.15 is possible.

If downwards movement fails to reach 1,308 then minute wave b may be unfolding as a combination, double zigzag or triangle.

Overall I will be expecting very choppy overlapping movement for another 24 to 48 hours while minute wave b finishes. When it is done I will expect another five wave structure downwards.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

I have been asked by more than one person to consider a triangle for this fourth wave at primary degree.

This is entirely possible, but it has a lower probability than the main wave count. Double zigzags and combinations are in my experience more common structures than triangles. However, triangles are not rare, they are just less common.

Triangles are very tricky structures to analyse. I normally only consider them when they show themselves clearly, which is close to the end of the structure.

At this stage within a possible triangle only waves A and B would be complete. One of the five subwaves should subdivide into a double zigzag, be more time consuming, and have deeper corrections than the other subwaves.

Within a contracting triangle intermediate wave (C) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A), and intermediate wave (D) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (B).

Within a barrier triangle intermediate wave (D) should end about the same level as intermediate wave (B), which in practicality means it may move slightly lower than 1,251.76. As long as the B-D trend line remains flat.

The triangle is invalidated with any movement above 1,438.83, or with much movement below 1,251.76.