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Movement below 1,241.21 invalidated the main hourly wave count. Further movement below 1,225.4 confirmed the alternate daily wave count. At that stage the target for downwards movement was at 1,206.

The main wave count is invalidated and I now expect more downwards movement.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete. It is unlikely that primary wave 4 was over at 1,433.83 as a single zigzag because it would have lasted only nine weeks. Its counterpart primary wave 2 lasted 53 weeks. This is too big a difference for the wave count to have the “right look”.

Primary wave 4 may be continuing as a flat, double combination or possibly a triangle. If price reaches 1,205.74 then downwards movement labeled intermediate wave (X) would be 90% of upwards movement labeled intermediate wave (W). I would relabel primary wave 4 as an A-B-C flat correction. If price does not reach 1,205.74 then primary wave 4 is most likely a double combination.

Within intermediate wave (X) zigzag downwards minor wave C has an extended third wave which is incomplete.

I would expect downwards movement to find support at the lower edge of the parallel channel drawn here about intermediate wave (X).

I have drawn a parallel channel about the zigzag of intermediate wave (X) using Elliott’s technique for a correction. Draw the first trend line from the start of minor wave A to the end of minor wave B. Place a parallel copy upon the end of minor wave A. When this channel is finally breached by upwards movement then I would consider that final confirmation that intermediate wave (Y) is underway.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

Minuette wave (iv) is a completed zigzag. Within it subminuette wave c ends very slightly beyond the end of subminuette wave a and avoids a truncation.

So far within downwards movement it looks like a third wave has completed. At 1,212 minuette wave (v) would reach 0.618 the length of minuette wave (iii).

Within minuette wave (v) I would expect more downwards movement with a series of small fourth wave corrections along the way. Each fourth wave correction may not move into its first wave price territory.

The green channel is copied over from the daily chart. Draw it first with a trend line from the lows of minuette waves (i) to (iii), then place a parallel copy upon the high labeled minuette wave (ii). I would expect minuette wave (v) to find support at the lower edge of this channel.

Minuette waves (i) and (iii) were extended, and minuette wave (v) should not be.

When minuette wave (v) completes the impulse for minute wave iii then I would expect a correction upwards for minute wave iv. It should last about four days.

That should be followed by a final fifth wave downwards to complete the entire zigzag structure labeled intermediate wave (X).

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate - Triangle 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction and structure of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.