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Upwards movement continued as expected. The target remains the same.

The wave count remains the same.

Summary: I expect overall more upwards movement towards the target at 1,330. It may not take another five days; minute wave c may not exhibit a Fibonacci time relationship. Upwards movement may end in another one or two days.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

It’s time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture on a weekly chart. This wave count expects that Gold is still within a fourth wave correction at primary degree. Because primary wave 2 was a flat correction it is likely that primary wave 4 will not be a flat correction. It is most likely to be either a combination or a triangle.

When primary wave 4 is complete (in several weeks to a couple of months or so) then a final five wave motive structure downwards for primary wave 5 would be expected.

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

To determine what structure the current upwards movement is most likely to take it is necessary to determine what structure primary wave 4 is most likely to take.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled here intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three, and is most likely to be a zigzag.

Minor wave A is unfolding as a zigzag: minute wave a is a five wave structure, minute wave b is a running contracting triangle and minute wave c is a simple impulse. At 1,330 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of minor wave A: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. Sometimes C waves overshoot these channels and that looks like what may happen here. When minor wave A is suspected of being complete then a subsequent clear channel breach of this channel with a full daily candlestick below the lower edge and not touching the lower trend line would provide trend channel confirmation of a trend change at minor degree.

Minuette wave (v) looks incomplete on the hourly and five minute charts. Within it I expect that subminuette waves i to iii are complete. Subminuette wave iv should move a little lower ending just below 1,314.97 so that within it micro wave C avoids a truncation. This should be over quickly on Monday.

Overall for Monday I expect to see more upwards movement towards the target which may be met now on Monday or Tuesday.

At 1,330 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a, and also at 1,330 minuette wave (v) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (iii). This target has a high probability.

Gold has a tendency, like all commodities, to overshoot its channels on fifth and C waves. This may be what is happening here. Minuette wave (v) has strongly overshot the channel previously drawn about minute wave c, and minute wave c may also overshoot the pink channel copied over here from the daily chart.

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave iv may not move into subminuette wave i price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,303.07.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

The expected direction of this next upwards wave is the same, but for this alternate intermediate wave (C) of the triangle may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (A). The triangle is invalidated with movement above 1,438.83.

Intermediate wave (C) must unfold as either a single or double zigzag. Within it no second wave correction, nor wave B of the zigzag, may move beyond the start of the first wave or A wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,180.84.

The final intermediate wave (E) upwards may not move above the end of intermediate wave (C) for both a contracting and barrier triangle. E waves most commonly end short of the A-C trend line.

All five subwaves of a triangle must divide into corrective structures. If this next upwards movement subdivides as a zigzag which does not make a new high above 1,438.83 then this alternate would be correct.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.