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Again upwards movement was not expected, although it was allowed for and has not invalidated the wave count.

I had expected a B wave to begin or be very close to beginning. It is not here yet.

The wave count is changed.

Summary: The structure within minor wave A most likely incomplete. Price should continue higher. The short term target is at 1,350. The first mid term target is at 1,354. If price keeps rising through this first mid term target then the next mid term target is at 1,380. The invalidation point is at 1,331.31. If this invalidation point is breached then the alternate should be used.

Click on the charts below to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2013

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled here intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three, and is most likely to be a zigzag.

Minor wave A an incomplete zigzag. At 1,354 minuette wave (v) within minute wave c would reach equality in length with minuette wave (i). If price keeps going upwards through this first target, or if when it gets there the structure for minute wave c is incomplete, then the next target would be at 1,380 where minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of minor wave A: draw the first trend line from the start of minute wave a to the end of minute wave b, then place a parallel copy upon the end of minute wave a. Sometimes C waves overshoot these channels, and this is what is happening here. When the structure of minor wave A could again be considered complete then a subsequent clear channel breach of this channel with a full daily candlestick below the lower edge and not touching the lower trend line would provide trend channel confirmation of a trend change at minor degree.

While price remains within this channel the trend should be considered to remain upwards.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

A new high confirms that minor wave A must be incomplete. I have simply moved the degree of labeling within minuette wave (v) down one degree. So far the structure within minuette wave (v) is an incomplete five wave structure and so more upwards movement is required to complete it.

Ratios within subminuette wave i are: micro wave 3 has no Fibonacci ratio to micro wave 1, and micro wave 5 is 0.91 short of 0.618 the length of micro wave 3.

Within minuette wave (v) subminuette wave i is extended. Subminuette wave iii may not be. At 1,350 subminuette wave iii would reach 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i. This target fits with the first mid term target for minor wave A.

I have drawn an acceleration channel about minuette wave (v). It shows where price is finding support and resistance. Downwards corrections should continue to find resistance at the lower edge of this small orange channel. Subminuette wave iii should break through the upper edge of the channel to overshoot it.

Within subminuette wave iii no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 1,331.31.

If this wave count is invalidated with a channel breach and movement below 1,331.31 then the alternate below should be used.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2013

The difference between the two hourly wave counts is within subminuette wave iii.

If subminuette wave iii ended at 1,339.08 then it is just 1.01 short of equality with subminuette wave i. Subminuette wave v is just 0.28 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave iii. With these excellent Fibonacci ratios this wave count may be correct. However, it does not have quite a good look as the main wave count.

If price breaches the lower edge of the orange channel and moves below 1,331.31 within the next 24 hours then this wave count would be correct. At that stage I would expect that minor wave B has likely begun.

If subminuette wave v continues higher then it may not be longer than equality with subminuette wave iii, because the third wave may not be the shortest. This limit is at 1,351. Above this price point this wave count would be invalid.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2013

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

This wave count has a good probability. It does not diverge from the main wave count and it will not diverge for several weeks yet.

Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.