Price moved lower as expected, but failed to reach the short term targets at 1,319 to 1,316. Downwards movement reached only to 1,328.
Both wave counts are still valid but I favour the main wave count strongly.
Summary: I expect that we may have just seen a trend change back to the upside. Movement above 1.353.07 would confirm this. The mid term target is at 1,390 for upwards movement to end.
This analysis is published about 03:00 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.
Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three, and is most likely to be a zigzag.
Minor wave A is an incomplete double zigzag. The second zigzag in the double is incomplete.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Within the second zigzag of this double for minor wave A, minuette wave (b) may have recently completed as a double combination.
The combination subdivides as a zigzag – X – regular flat.
I had expected the second structure to end slightly below the first, just a little below the end of subminuette wave w at 1,319.72. This would have given the whole double combination a typical sideways look. I expected this tendency would have been stronger than the tendency of the second structure in the double, subminuette wave y, to have a typical regular flat look.
However, subminuette wave y is a typical regular flat correction. Within it micro wave B is a 95% correction of micro wave A, and micro wave C is 2.13 short of equality with micro wave A. Within micro wave C the fifth wave is truncated, and this provides the ratio of equality between micro waves A and C.
The structure for minuette wave (b) is now complete and all subdivisions fit perfectly. The probability that it is over here is very high, because the only way it could continue is as a very rare triple combination. Also, if it is over here it is nicely in proportion to other waves at minuette degree within the structure of minor wave A.
Movement above 1,353.07 would be required to confirm this trend change. While price remains below this point the alternate wave count will remain valid.
At 1,390 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a). This is the ratio I am using to calculate the target because minuette wave (a) was very short, and it would see the ratios of A and C waves within the two zigzags of the double show alternation.
Alternate Wave Count.
If minor wave A is complete then minor wave B has begun. This wave count now diverges with the expectation for Silver significantly enough to reduce its probability, while the main wave count is in line with my expectations for Silver.
This wave count requires a clear breach of the pink channel about minor wave A for confirmation.
This wave count sees minuette wave (iii) over at 1,343.35 and minor wave A may be complete.
Within minor wave B the first 5-3-5 downwards is incomplete. At 1,316 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
This wave count requires confirmation below 1,328.18. At that point the main wave count would be invalidated.
Subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,353.07.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
This wave count has a good probability. It does not diverge from the main wave count and it will not diverge for several weeks yet.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.