Upwards movement continued as expected. The target of 1,387 to 1,390 has been met at 1,388.10. I have a main and an alternate hourly wave count for you today.
Summary: Upwards movement may be over for now. This trend change requires confirmation. We need to see a clear breach of the pink channel on the daily chart before we may have confidence in this trend change. While price remains within this channel we must accept that price may yet continue higher.
This analysis is published about 07:45 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.
Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three.
Minor wave A may again be a complete structure now that it unfolds nicely as a double zigzag. It may have ended at the upper edge of its channel. We need to see this channel breached with a full daily candlestick below the lower pink trend line and not touching it before we may have confidence in a trend change at minor degree.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Main Hourly Wave Count.
Minor wave A may again be considered complete.
Within the second zigzag of minor wave A minuette wave (c) is just 1.63 short of 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).
Within minuette wave (c) there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between subminuette waves i, iii and v.
Sideways movement after last analysis was published looks like a running contracting triangle, and I expect subminuette wave iv moved sideways. This gives it better alternation with the structure of subminuette wave ii: subminuette wave ii is an expanded flat and subminuette wave iv a triangle.
I want to see, in order, the following three things to have confidence in a trend change at minor degree:
1. A clear breach of the orange channel on the hourly chart containing minuette wave (c).
2. Movement below 1,368.53.
3. Final confirmation with a clear channel breach on the daily chart of the wider pink channel containing minor wave A. Only when this channel is breached will I have confidence in this trend change.
The new downwards trend should last several weeks to a couple of months or so. Waiting for confirmation about this time of a trend change is a wise idea. Depending upon your risk appetite you may choose either of the three points above before you have confidence in this trend change.
Within the new downwards trend no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,388.10.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count.
By simply moving the degree of labeling within subminuette wave v down one degree it is possible to see we may yet have new highs.
At 1,405 subminuette wave v would reach equality in length with subminuette wave iii. Both subminuette waves iii and v would be extended. This would probably see upwards movement overshoot the upper edge of the pink channel on its fifth wave, which would be somewhat typical for Gold.
On the way up downwards corrections should find support at the lower edge of the orange channel. Upwards movement may overshoot the upper edge of the channel.
Within subminuette wave v micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1. This wave count is initially invalidated with movement below 1,368.53.
If price moves below 1,368.53 it would be possible that subminuette wave iv could be continuing further, although this would see it disproportionate to subminuette wave ii and so has a low probability. The invalidation point for this idea lies at 1,344.77.
Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.
It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.
This wave count has a good probability. It does not diverge from the main wave count and it will not diverge for several weeks yet.
Triangles take up time and move price sideways. If primary wave 4 unfolds as a triangle then I would expect it to last months rather than weeks.