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Price has moved slightly lower. The target was not reached. I have only one hourly wave count for you today.

Summary: Downwards movement may have just ended. A clear breach of the orange channel on the hourly chart is required for confidence in a trend change.

This analysis is published about 04:00 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

The first upwards wave within primary wave 4 labeled intermediate wave (W) subdivides as a three wave zigzag. Primary wave 4 cannot be an unfolding zigzag because the first wave within a zigzag, wave A, must subdivide as a five.

Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be completing as a double zigzag because intermediate wave (X) is a deep 99% correction of intermediate wave (W). Double zigzags commonly have shallow X waves because their purpose it to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) may be either a flat or a triangle. For both these structures minor wave A must be a three.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

If minor wave B is a flat, combination or double zigzag, then minute wave a (or w) within it must subdivide as a three. Minute wave a (or w) may now be a complete zigzag.

Continuing divergence between price trending lower and MACD trending higher indicates a trend change. The target previously calculated may not be met.

I require a clear breach of the channel about minuette wave (c) before I have any confidence that a mid term low is in place.

There is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (a) and (c).

Ratios within minuette wave (c) are: subminuette wave iii is 2.81 short of equality with subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave v is just 0.43 short of 0.618 the length of subminuette wave i.

Minute wave b or x may make a new high beyond the start of minute wave a at 1,392.30. This wave count has no upper invalidation point for this reason.

If minor wave B is a flat correction then minute wave b within it must reach a minimum of 90% the length of minute wave a at 1,380.85. If minor wave B is an expanded flat correction then minute wave b may end at or above 1,398.80 where it would be 105% the length of minute wave a.

If minor wave B is a double combination I would expect minute wave x to be deep, and it may make a new high. There is no minimum requirement for minute wave x.

If minor wave B is a double zigzag then I would expect minute wave x to be shallow, and it may be brief.

While price remains within the orange channel we must accept the possibility of new lows. A trend change is unconfirmed.

Alternate Daily Wave Count – Triangle.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Triangle 2014

It is also possible that primary wave 4 may continue as a regular contracting (or barrier) triangle.

Within the triangle one of the subwaves, intermediate wave (C), is a double zigzag. The remaining subwaves may not be double zigzags and must be single zigzags. If intermediate wave (D) is a zigzag then it is likely now to be over. This would be a remarkably shallow D wave within a triangle, and it does not look right. The probability of this alternate is today reduced.

This alternate wave count now only requires a final zigzag upwards for intermediate wave (E) which may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.