Upwards movement was expected. The target is not yet reached, but the structure is incomplete. The target may be reached on Monday.
Summary: In the short term I expect to see a little more upwards movement. It may end about 1,308 or it may continue higher. If we see a new high above 1,331.29 then I would expect price to continue higher to 1,355.
This analysis is published about 4:45 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.
Main Wave Count.
Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.
Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.
Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.
Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.
Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure fits best as an incomplete double zigzag. Minor wave B should continue for a few more weeks and may make a new low below 1,180, and is reasonably likely to do so in coming weeks.
Within the double zigzag of minor wave B we may be seeing alternation between minute waves w and y. Within minute wave w its A and C waves are somewhat close to equality (but not close enough to say they have an acceptable ratio of equality). Within minute wave y we may be seeing a ratio of 1.618 or 2.618 between its A and C waves, with its A wave being the shorter of the two.
Within minor wave B minute wave w lasted 11 days and minute wave x lasted 9 days. So far minute wave y has lasted 8 days and it still has a long way down to go. It looks like it will be longer lasting than minute wave w. It may last a total Fibonacci 13 or 21 days.
Minute wave x is still most likely complete as a single zigzag. Minute wave y has most likely begun. Minute wave y must subdivide as a zigzag to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.
Within the zigzag of minute wave y minuette wave (b) is an incomplete expanded flat correction: subminuette wave a subdivides as a three, and subminuette wave b subdivides as a three and is a 157% correction of subminuette wave a. At 1,308 subminuette wave c would reach 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a.
It is extremely likely that subminuette wave c will move at least to 1,307.19 to avoid a truncation. If it were truncated then technically this structure would be a running flat, and I have never seen a running flat with a B wave much over 105% the length of the A wave.
Minuette wave (b) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a) above 1,331.29. This invalidation point will not change as minuette wave (b) cannot move higher.
Within subminuette wave c its third wave is incomplete. Micro wave 3 shows a clear increase in upwards momentum which supports this wave count. Within micro wave 3 submicro wave (4) may not move into submicro wave (1) price territory below 1,294.21.
I have drawn a small channel about this third wave using Elliott’s first technique; draw the first trend line from the ends of submicro waves (1) to (3), then place a parallel copy upon the end of submicro wave (2). I would expect this channel to show support and resistance while micro wave 3 ends. When micro wave 3 can be seen as a clear five wave impulse then I would expect downwards movement to breach the lower edge of the channel for micro wave 4. At that stage the invalidation point may be moved up to the end of micro wave 1 at 1,298.88.
When I know where micro waves 3 and 4 have ended then I will use the ratio between micro waves 1, 3 and 5 to add to the target calculation at micro wave degree, so the target of 1,308 may widen to a small zone or it may change. If it changes it would probably move higher. It will definitely not move below 1,307.19.
Alternate Wave Count.
I have moved the degree of labeling within minute wave x down one degree: the first zigzag upwards may not be minute wave x in its entirety and that may only be minuette wave (a) within minute wave x. Minute wave x may be continuing sideways as a flat correction.
Minor wave B downwards is still seen here as a double zigzag: zigzag – X – zigzag. The purpose of double zigzags is to deepen a correction when the first zigzag does not move price deep enough, so this structure would be able to take price down to 1,201.98 or below.
This alternate still has a lower probability than the main wave count because if minute wave x continues higher for a few days it would be substantially longer in duration than minute wave w. This would be unusual for an X wave within a double zigzag, and reduces the probability of this wave count.
There is no upper invalidation point because there is no minimum or maximum requirement for an X wave. However, X waves within double zigzags are normally shallow as this one would be. The only requirement is that an X wave be a corrective structure.
Within the possible flat correction minuette wave (b) is now a 117% correction of minuette wave (a), which indicates an expanded flat. At 1,355 minuette wave (c) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (a).
If price reached up to 1,380.82 or above then I would relabel minor wave B in its entirety as a flat correction.
Minuette wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave structure. Within its third wave, subminuette wave iii, submicro wave (4) may not move into submicro wave (1) price territory below 1,294.21.
A new low below 1,268.62 would finally invalidate this wave count; at that stage downwards movement could not be a correction within minuette wave (c).