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Price has moved lower as expected, but not convincingly. I still want to see price breach 1,273.43 to have confidence the downwards trend has resumed.

Summary: It is most likely the downwards trend has resumed, but this is unconfirmed. Downwards movement should reach 1,201.98 or below.

This analysis is published about 08:25 p.m. EST. Click on charts to enlarge.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

Primary wave 4 is most likely to be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – second structure. The second structure labeled intermediate wave (Y) is most likely to be a flat correction. Within the flat correction minor wave B must reach a minimum 90% the length of minor wave A at 1,201.98.

Overall the structure for primary wave 4 should take up time and move price sideways, and the second structure should end about the same level as the first at 1,434. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,532.90.

Within intermediate wave (Y) minor wave B downwards is an incomplete corrective structure, and at this stage the structure may be either a single zigzag (as labeled here) or a double zigzag (relabel A-B-C to W-X-Y). When minute wave b is finally confirmed as complete then I will have two hourly wave counts for the two possibilities of the next downwards wave: either an impulse for a C wave or a zigzag for a W wave.

If minor wave B is a single zigzag then within it minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a above 1,392.30.

If minor wave B is a double zigzag, relabeled minute w-x-y, then within it there is no invalidation point for minute wave x. But X waves within double zigzags are usually relatively brief and shallow, as they very rarely make new price extremes beyond the start of the first zigzag in the double.

Main Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

It is most likely that minute wave b is complete as a double combination; zigzag – X – flat. Within the second structure of this double, minuette wave (y), subminuette wave c is 3.49 longer than 1.618 the length of subminuette wave a. A small channel drawn about the impulse of subminuette wave c is now clearly breached with downwards and sideways movement. For these reasons I expect it is likely that sideways movement is finally over and the downwards trend has resumed.

Movement below 1,273.43 would invalidate the alternate below and so confirm this main wave count.

At 1,200.89 minute wave c would reach equality in length with minute wave a. I will only have confidence in this target once this wave count is confirmed.

If we begin to see an increase in downwards momentum then I would have some confidence in this wave count.

Within minute wave c no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,315.72.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

If we see movement above 1,315.72 then I would use this wave count.

I have simply moved the degree of labeling within subminuette wave c down one degree. It is possible that only micro wave 1 is complete.

At 1,336 subminuette wave c would reach 2.618 the length of subminuette wave a.

Micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1 below 1,273.43.