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Upwards movement was expected for Friday.

Although the target is close by and the structure is incomplete, I am changing the wave count.

Summary: Monday should see more upwards movement to a target at 1,340. Movement above 1,324.73 will confirm the main wave count and invalidate the alternate. This should happen on Monday. The implications are important – confirmation of the main wave count at this stage is early confirmation that primary wave 5 downwards has begun. The long term target is 956.97.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Main Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

I am swapping over my main and alternate daily wave counts today. I am doing this because what was the main wave count no longer has the right look.

Within minor wave A minute wave iv is a triangle which provides alternation with the zigzag of minute wave ii. Minute wave v then subdivides perfectly as a brief impulse. Minor wave C is just 1.07 longer than 0.382 the length of minor wave A. Intermediate wave (E) falls comfortably short of the (A)-(C) trend line. This wave count looks typical.

The new downwards trend has the first five wave impulse for minor wave 1 complete. Minor wave 2 is unfolding as an expanded flat correction. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 above 1,345.22.

GOLD Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

I have taken some more time to look at the structure on the hourly chart for this wave count and I have resolved the problems I had with it.

Minor wave 1 downwards (to the left of the chart) fits perfectly as an impulse within its channel. The channel was breached by upwards and sideways movement confirming minor wave 2 had begun.

So far minor wave 2 is an incomplete expanded flat correction: minute wave a subdivides as a three and minute wave b is a three which has corrected 115% of minute wave a. At 1,340 minute wave c would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave a. Minute wave c is extremely likely to at least make a new high above the end of minute wave a at 1,324.73 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. Movement above 1,324.73 would invalidate the alternate below and confirm this main wave count. If this main wave count is correct then it should be quickly confirmed on Monday or Tuesday next week.

Minute wave c must subdivide as a five wave structure.

Now that I have resolved the problems I initially had for this wave count, and with upwards movement again breaching the channel on the hourly chart for the alternate below, I would judge this wave count to have about a 70% probability.

Alternate Daily Wave Count.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily Alternate 2014

This has been the main wave count up until today. Continued breaches of the channel on the hourly chart indicate this wave count is wrong.

It is still possible that intermediate wave (E) is an incomplete zigzag.

Within intermediate wave (E) minor wave A is complete. Minor wave B would be an incomplete expanded flat. Minute wave c is incomplete.

Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.51. Minor wave B should find very strong support at the lower (B)-(D) trend line of the triangle, but if this line is breached this wave count should be discarded.

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly Alternate 2014

If this wave count is correct then minute wave c downwards must subdivide as a five wave structure. The green channel is drawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line from the ends of minuette waves (ii) to (iv) then a copy on the end of minuette wave (iii). This channel is now breached by minuette wave (v) which gives this wave count a strange look. Minuette wave (v) should remain within that channel and because it does not it indicates that the wave count is wrong.

If minuette wave (v) is unfolding then it may only be an ending diagonal. Within an ending diagonal all the subwaves may only be single zigzags. Second and fourth waves normally end between 0.66 to 0.81 the prior wave, so subminuette wave ii would most likely end between 1,312 to 1,318. Subminuette wave ii must subdivide as a zigzag and it may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i above 1,324.73.

At 1,280 minute wave c would reach 2.618 the length of minute wave a.

This analysis is published about 12:35 a.m. EST.