Some downwards movement was expected in the short term to about 1,286.81. So far price has reached down to 1,286.20.
I have a new alternate Elliott wave count for you today.
Summary: I expect overall upwards movement here for a minor degree wave to just above 1,345.22, to last about 17 days in total. So far it has lated two days. In the short term it is most likely a third wave up is beginning. The target is at 1,313. I will have full confidence in the main wave count above 1,304.88.
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Main Wave Count.
The main wave count sees primary wave 4 as an incomplete regular contracting triangle. Primary wave 2 was a deep 68% running flat correction. Primary wave 4 is showing alternation in depth and some alternation in structure.
Within the triangle of primary wave 4 intermediate wave (E) is unfolding as a zigzag: minor wave A is a five wave impulse and minor wave B downwards is now a complete zigzag. I have drawn a corrective channel about minor wave B downwards. Apart from a small overshoot within the triangle of minute wave b this channel shows perfectly where price is finding resistance currently. This channel is further support of this wave count.
Because there is a clear triangle within this downwards wave of minor wave B, this movement cannot be a new impulse to the downside because a triangle may not be the sole corrective structure in a second wave position. The position of this triangle indicates strongly that intermediate wave (E) is incomplete.
If minor wave B continues (alternate wave count below) and gets down as low as the black (B)-(D) trend line it should find very strong support there. Only a small intra-day overshoot could be contemplated if this wave count is correct. Minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,240.51.
Intermediate wave (E) may not move beyond the end of intermediate wave (C) above 1,392.30.
I can see one alternate possibility today. If primary wave 4 is over at the high labeled minor wave A within intermediate wave (E) then it is possible that primary wave 5 is beginning with a leading diagonal in a first wave position. However, leading diagonals in first wave positions are not very common. This alternate idea is possible, but I judge it to have a very low probability, maybe as low as 5%. I will only publish this idea if the black (B)-(D) trend line is clearly breached.
Minuette wave (ii) is now most likely complete. Within the next 24 hours, if this wave count is correct, we should expect to see an increase in upwards momentum. At 1,313 minuette wave (iii) would reach 1.618 the length of minuette wave (i).
The new alternate below does not expect to see movement above 1,304.88. Movement above this price point would provide full confidence in this main wave count. At that stage the alternate below would be discarded.
Upwards movement is finding resistance at the upper edge of the pink channel copied over here from the daily chart. Minuette wave (iii) should have the strength to break through resistance of this channel.
I have also drawn a base channel about minuette waves (i) and (ii). Minuette wave (iii) should break above the upper edge of this channel. Along the way up downwards corrections should find support at the lower edge of this channel.
It is possible but fairly unlikely that minuette wave (ii) could continue to move a bit lower. Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i) at 1,280.35.
Alternate Wave Count.
Thank you to Steve for pointing out this possible alternate wave count.
If minute wave b was not a triangle but a sharp zigzag ending higher up then minute wave c may be unfolding as an ending contracting diagonal.
Within the diagonal minuette wave (iii) is shorter than minuette wave (i). This means that minuette wave (iv) must be shorter than minuette wave (ii). The diagonal trend lines should converge. Only the final fifth wave zigzag needs to complete this structure.
When minute wave b ends at the point labeled and a trend channel is drawn about this downwards zigzag then minuette wave c does not remain contained within the channel. Normally Gold has structures which look fairly typical and are nicely contained within normally drawn channels. This wave count does not have a typical look for Gold. I would judge this problem to reduce the probability of this alternate to below 20%.
Minuette wave (v) should end at the lower (i)-(iii) trend line of the diagonal.
The pink trend line sloping downwards on this chart is the upper edge of the corrective channel about minor wave B copied over from the daily chart. Here on the hourly chart it is clear how much of minute wave c does not fit into this channel. This looks very atypical for Gold.
At 1,304.88 minuette wave (iv) would reach equality in length with minuette wave (ii). Because the diagonal is contracting this fourth wave zigzag should not be longer than equality with the second wave. Movement above 1,304.88 would see this wave count discarded as at that stage the diagonal would be too atypical.
At 1,303 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a.
Minuette wave (iv) may not move beyond the end of minuette wave (ii) above 1,312.28. However, this wave count would be discarded well before the invalidation point is passed.
The final fifth wave downwards would most likely end when price comes to touch the lower (i)-(iii) trend line of the diagonal. It would likely move at least slightly below the end of minuette wave (iii) at 1,280.25 to avoid a truncation.
This analysis is published about 05:17 p.m. EST.