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My Elliott wave and traditional TA analysis of NZDUSD:

Elliott Wave Analysis

NZDUSD monthly 2015

NZDUSD daily 2015

Today I am waiting to see if price can break through support at the black trend line.

Trend Line Analysis

NZDUSD trend line 2015

Technical Analysis


Although ADX is below 15 indicating no clear trend, the EW picture expects a strong third wave down to begin.

I entered a sell position at 0.7416 a few days ago. I have moved my stop down to 0.7410 to reduce risk to zero. I will start to move the stop lower to protect profits, in another couple of days, if price keeps dropping as I expect it to do. I’ll use the last swing high as a point for stops, once it is comfortably below my entry point.

If I’m wrong and price makes another deep second wave correction up, my position may be closed for a tiny profit, and I’ll wait again for another entry point.

My take profit will be 0.58758 or just above; I may move this higher as the structure unfolds down. When price moves into free fall territory I expect downwards momentum to increase. I intend to hold this position for a few weeks. For now I’m waiting to see if it will remain, if price will stay below my entry point or not.