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Upwards movement was expected to continue for the week, which is what has happened. The target remains the same.

Summary: Upwards movement is expected to continue. The target is at 24.219. This trend is now extreme, so stops must be used (as always).

New updates to this analysis are in bold.


Silver weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Two first and second wave corrections may be complete. Silver may be in a strong third wave up.

When intermediate wave (3) is complete, then the following correction for intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 17.990.

Draw a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2) as shown. The upper edge is providing support now that price has broken above it. If price makes a deeper than expected correction here, then the upper edge of this channel should provide very strong support.


Silver daily 2016
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At 24.219 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

It looks like minor waves 1 through to 4 may now be complete within intermediate wave (3). The next wave up for minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (3) may be swift and strong.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 19.214.

If targets are wrong, they may not be high enough. Silver, like all commodities, has a tendency of swift strong fifth waves. They are not necessarily extended in price, but they often are. Look out for surprises to the upside for this market at this time; blowoff tops commonly occur at the ends of third waves.



Silver Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

From the low in January, as price rises volume also rises and as price falls volume declines. The volume profile is bullish which supports the wave count.

A support line is added in cyan. If price again comes down to touch it, price should find strong support there.

A break above the purple line on On Balance Volume would be a bullish signal.

RSI is overbought but does not exhibit divergence with price. There is no indication of weakness at the weekly chart level at this stage.


Silver Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Volume increased for the two green daily candlesticks during this last week. The rise in price had some support from volume. Now a red daily candlestick completes with slightly lower volume. The volume profile short and mid term for Silver is still bullish and this supports the Elliott wave count.

ADX is still declining, indicating the market is not currently trending. ADX is still extreme above 30. The +DX line is still above the -DX line, so an upwards trend would again be indicated if the black ADX line turns up here. Because ADX is still extreme, this trend is now nearing its end.

ATR is still overall flat. ATR declined as price moved lower for several days from the last high. This indicates that downwards movement was more likely a pullback within an upwards trend and not a new downwards trend.

The pullback has brought RSI back down from overbought. There is again some room for price to rise. RSI may remain extreme during a trending market, particularly for commodities during their fifth waves. It should be used to indicate weakness when it moves to extreme and then exhibits divergence with price.

Stochastics is neutral. There is room for price to rise or fall.

This analysis is published @ 07:49 p.m. EST.