Select Page

Upwards movement was expected for this week from Silver, which is what has happened.

Summary: Upwards movement is expected to continue. The target is at 24.219. The trend is now not so extreme that there is again room for price to rise and the trend to continue.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.


Silver weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

Two first and second wave corrections may be complete. Silver may be in a strong third wave up.

When intermediate wave (3) is complete, then the following correction for intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 17.990.

Draw a base channel about intermediate waves (1) and (2) as shown. The upper edge is not perfectly showing where price is now finding support. A parallel copy pulled slightly lower may be showing where price is finding support (on the daily chart).


Silver daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge.

At 24.219 intermediate wave (3) would reach 2.618 the length of intermediate wave (1).

It looks like minor waves 1 through to 4 may now be complete within intermediate wave (3). The next wave up for minor wave 5 to end intermediate wave (3) may be swift and strong. It should be expected to end with a blowoff top.

Within minor wave 5, minute waves i and ii may be complete. Silver may be ready to move into a strong third wave up within a fifth wave extension. Within minute wave iii, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 19.549.

If targets are wrong, they may not be high enough. Silver, like all commodities, has a tendency of swift strong fifth waves. They are not necessarily extended in price, but they often are. Look out for surprises to the upside for this market at this time; blowoff tops commonly occur at the ends of third waves.



Silver Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

From the low in January, as price rises volume also rises and as price falls volume declines. The volume profile is bullish which supports the wave count.

A support line is added in cyan. If price again comes down to touch it, price should find strong support there.

A break above the purple line on On Balance Volume would be a bullish signal.

RSI is no longer overbought but does not exhibit divergence with price. There is no indication of weakness at the weekly chart level at this stage.


Silver Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

With ADX declining further this week and RSI still close to neutral, the trend is not now so extreme. There is again room for price to rise and the trend to continue.

Price is currently range bound mid term. Price ended the last upwards wave on 5th of July. Thereafter, price has essentially moved sideways with resistance about 20.85 and support about 19.25. During this range bound movement, it is an upwards day of 8th of July which has strongest volume. This indicates an upwards breakout may be more likely than downwards breakout. This trick is not as reliable for Silver though as it is for Gold, in my experience.

This market is currently range bound. ADX and ATR are both declining.

The cyan support line here is slightly redrawn to show where the last few days are finding support.

From the low on 8th of August, volume is increasing as price is rising. If an upwards trend is continuing though, it is slightly concerning that the last day which was downwards comes on slightly higher volume.

On Balance Volume trend lines are redrawn today. A break above the purple line would be bullish. A break below the yellow line would be bearish. However, these lines are not well tested and are only short held, so they do not have strong technical significance.

Price may be expected to swing from resistance to support and back again in a range bound market. Here price may be expected to overall continue a downwards swing and to only end when it finds support and Stochastics is oversold at the same time.

This analysis is published @ 11:30 p.m. EST.