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Last week expected upwards movement for Silver, which is exactly what has happened.

Summary: Upwards movement should continue. The target is 25.63 to 26.87. The volume profile is very bullish at this stage for Silver.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.


Silver weekly 2016
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Within primary wave 3, intermediate waves (1), (2) and (3) may be complete. Intermediate wave (4) may be unfolding.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 17.990.

Intermediate wave (5) may be a swift sharp extension. It may end with a blowoff top.

A base channel about primary waves 1 and 2 is added this week. Intermediate wave (4) may find support about the upper edge.


Silver daily 2016
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Draw a channel about upwards movement using Elliott’s second technique: draw the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (2) to (4), then place a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (5) may end midway within the channel. Or if it is a swift strong fifth wave, it may end at the upper edge.

At 25.63 primary wave 3 would reach 4.236 the length of primary wave 1.

At 26.87 intermediate wave (5) would reach 1.618 the length of intermediate wave (3). This gives a 1.24 target zone calculated at two wave degrees.

There is inadequate alternation between intermediate waves (2) and (4) because they are both subdividing as zigzags. There is some alternation so far within the structure: within intermediate wave (2) minor wave B was very brief and within intermediate wave (4) minor wave B is very time consuming. Intermediate wave (2) was a 0.68 correction of intermediate wave (1) and intermediate wave (4) is a 0.51 correction of intermediate wave (3), so there is no reasonable alternation in depth.

Minor wave 1 is unfolding as an impulse within intermediate wave (5). Within minor wave 1 so far minute waves i, ii, iii and now iv are most likely complete. Minute wave v should move higher to complete the structure. When minor wave 1 is over, then minor wave 2 should move price lower for a few days. Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 18.39.


Silver daily 2016
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It is possible that primary wave 3 is already over. Intermediate wave (5) would be truncated by 0.294, which reduces the probability of this alternate.

Primary wave 3 has no adequate Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. At 20.953 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1.

The maroon channel is drawn here using Elliott’s first technique: draw the first trend line from the end of primary wave 1 (see this on the weekly chart) to the end of primary wave 3, then place a parallel copy on the end of primary wave 2. Primary wave 4 may be finding some support about the lower edge of the channel. This may be where primary wave 5 begins.

Within primary wave 5, intermediate wave (1) may be close to completion as an impulse. When minor wave 5 upwards completes the impulse for intermediate wave (1), then a multi day correction downwards for intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) at 18.39.



Silver Chart Weekly 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Last week completed a strong upwards week with a strong increase in volume. This supports both Elliott wave counts and more upwards movement looks to be very likely.

This week is incomplete, so it is not analysed; the volume for this week is not totalled yet.

On Balance Volume has found support at the lower yellow support line. This bounce up from the yellow line is a bullish signal from OBV.

RSI is not extreme and at this stage exhibits no divergence with price at the weekly chart level to indicate weakness.


Silver Chart Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price has moved higher with increasing volume for five days in a row. The rise in price is supported by volume. This supports the Elliott wave counts.

Wednesday’s small downwards day comes on substantially lighter volume. In the short term, this strongly suggests more upwards movement.

ADX is slightly increasing and is above 15. The +DX line is above the -DX line. An upwards trend is indicated.

ATR agrees as it too is increasing. Silver is in an upwards trend.

On Balance Volume gave a bullish signal with a break above the yellow line and a retest of that line six days ago. Price is moving higher as this bullish signal suggested it would. A new purple resistance line is added but OBV will not meet this line for some time, so it allows for a reasonable upwards movement.

RSI is not yet extreme. There is room for price to rise further.

Stochastics is not yet extreme. There is room for price to rise further. This oscillator may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a trending market.

This analysis is published @ 04:22 a.m. EST.