A downwards swing was expected, but it was much more shallow than the target.
Summary: Silver may continue higher from here to a target at 18.89.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last monthly chart is here.
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS
FIRST WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Cycle wave b may be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. The second structure, a flat correction for primary wave Y, may be underway.
Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 15.938. Intermediate wave (B) has met this minimum requirement; the rule for a flat correction is met. Intermediate wave (B) is longer than 1.05 times the length of intermediate wave (A) indicating this may be an expanded flat. Expanded flat corrections are the most common type. Normally their C waves are 1.618 or 2.618 the length of their A waves.
The target calculated would see primary wave Y to end close to same level as primary wave W about 21.062. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double normally ends about the same level as the first.
While the combination wave count at the weekly chart level does not currently work for Gold, it does still work for Silver. They do not have to complete the same structures for cycle wave b, and fairly often their structures are different.
DAILY CHART
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For this first wave count, upwards movement for intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It may be unfolding as an impulse.
Within the impulse, minor waves 1 through now to 4 may be complete. Minor wave 5 may be a long extension, which is typical for commodities.
The blue Elliott channel is redrawn using the second technique. Minor wave 5 may end about the upper edge of the channel.
No second wave correction within minor wave 5 may move beyond its start below 16.123. Minute wave ii looks very likely now to be over, remaining within the upwards channel about intermediate wave (C) and finding support at the upper edge of the downwards channel about intermediate wave (B).
SECOND WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
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Within a triangle, one of the sub-waves must be a more complicated multiple, usually a multiple zigzag. This may be complete for primary wave B.
Primary wave C upwards should unfold as a single zigzag that may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 21.062. The A-C trend line is adjusted to see primary wave C reach a more normal length in relation to primary wave B. Along the way up, price may find some resistance at the lilac trend line.
Primary wave C must subdivide as a three wave zigzag. Intermediate wave (B) within it may now be complete.
DAILY CHART
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This wave count expects a shorter upwards wave than the first wave count.
Intermediate wave (B) may be over at the last low. The strong upwards day for the 16th of August suggests that intermediate wave (B) is over.
A target is calculated for intermediate wave (C), which assumes a common Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (A) and would see primary wave C end just below its common range.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
ADX supports the idea of a large triangle completing.
Volume for last week suggests upwards movement should continue for the short term at least.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Give reasonable weight to the bullish signal from On Balance Volume, it supports the Elliott wave counts. The trend line is now tested only three times but is almost horizontal, so it has some reasonable technical significance.
This is contradicted by Stochastics. But Stochastics may remain extreme for reasonable periods of time and may develop multiple divergence before price turns. With RSI neutral, there is room for price to rise further.
Give more weight to On Balance Volume than Stochastics.
Published @ 08:08 p.m. EST.