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A pullback was expected to move price lower to about 16, but this is not what happened. Price has moved higher.

Summary: The trend is upwards. There are some signs it is nearing extreme, but there is room still for price to rise further.

A short term target is about 20.

Expect price to keep rising while price remains within the Elliott channels on the daily charts. If price breaks below the channels, then a deeper pullback or trend change may have occurred.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.




Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. The second structure, a flat correction for primary wave Y, may be underway.

Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 15.938. Intermediate wave (B) has met this minimum requirement; the rule for a flat correction is met. Intermediate wave (B) is longer than 1.05 times the length of intermediate wave (A) indicating this may be an expanded flat. Expanded flat corrections are the most common type. Normally their C waves are 1.618 or 2.618 the length of their A waves.

The target calculated would see primary wave Y to end close to same level as primary wave W about 21.062. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double normally ends about the same level as the first.

While the combination wave count at the weekly chart level does not currently work for Gold, it does still work for Silver. They do not have to complete the same structures for cycle wave b, and fairly often their structures are different.


Silver daily 2017
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For this first wave count, upwards movement for intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It may be unfolding as an impulse.

Within the impulse, minor waves 1 through now to 4 may be complete. Minor wave 5 may be a long extension, which is typical for commodities.

The blue Elliott channel is redrawn using the second technique. Minor wave 5 may end about the upper edge of the channel.

Within the extension of minor wave 5, minute waves i and ii may be complete. Minute wave iii may be extending.

Within minute wave iii, minuette waves (i) through to (iv) may be complete. If minuette wave (iv) moves any lower, it may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory below 17.170.

Minuette wave (v) would be expected to be a long extension to complete the impulse of minute wave iii. This is common for fifth waves of third wave impulses to extend. It may end with a blow off top.



Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Within a triangle, one of the sub-waves must be a more complicated multiple, usually a multiple zigzag. This may be complete for primary wave B.

Primary wave C upwards should unfold as a single zigzag that may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 21.062. The A-C trend line is adjusted to see primary wave C reach a more normal length in relation to primary wave B. Along the way up, price may find some resistance at the lilac trend line.

Primary wave C must subdivide as a three wave zigzag.

It is possible this week that primary wave C may be over finding resistance at the lilac trend line. However, that would see it only a 0.42 length to primary wave B, and triangle sub waves are more commonly about 0.8 to 0.85 the length of the prior wave. If it is over, it would be unusually short.


Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (B) may now be over as a relatively brief double combination.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It looks like it may be unfolding as the more common impulse. Within intermediate wave (C), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 16.829.

Minor wave 3 upwards should exhibit an increase in momentum and should have support from volume.



Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Price is still within a large consolidation zone. Volume remains relatively strong. So far, within the consolidation, it is two downwards weeks that have strongest volume suggesting a downwards breakout eventually is more likely than upwards.

ADX is declining while price moves sideways supporting the idea of a consolidation.


Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The small pennant noticed last week was negated by a downwards spike on the 25th of August.

There is strong resistance here about 17.70.

On Balance Volume is very bullish. ADX is bullish. Bollinger Bands now widening support the upwards trend.

However, Stochastics is extreme and exhibits divergence, and RSI is nearing overbought. Silver, like Gold, may remain extreme during strong bull trends for a reasonable length of time. It is concerning for bulls that volume does not currently support upwards movement.

If price breaks above resistance at 17.70 on a day with strong volume, take that as an upwards breakout. Expect more upwards movement to the next resistance area on the weekly chart about 18.55 to 18.65.

Published @ 03:09 a.m. EST.