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Last analysis expected a pullback, which has arrived. The last three sessions have seen price fall for Silver.

Summary: Silver is in a large consolidation and the situation is very unclear. Volume suggests an upwards breakout may be more likely, which favours the first Elliott wave count.

A new high above 18.207 is required for confidence in the first wave count. A new low below 16.311 is required for confidence in the second wave count.

For the very short term, weakness in current downwards movement suggests price should turn higher here or very soon.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last monthly chart is here.




Silver weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be completing as a double combination: zigzag – X – flat. The second structure, a flat correction for primary wave Y, may be underway.

Within a flat correction, intermediate wave (B) must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of intermediate wave (A) at 15.938. Intermediate wave (B) has met this minimum requirement; the rule for a flat correction is met. Intermediate wave (B) is longer than 1.05 times the length of intermediate wave (A) indicating this may be an expanded flat. Expanded flat corrections are the most common type. Normally their C waves are 1.618 or 2.618 the length of their A waves.

The target calculated would see primary wave Y to end close to same level as primary wave W about 21.062. The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double normally ends about the same level as the first.

While the combination wave count at the weekly chart level does not currently work for Gold, it does still work for Silver. They do not have to complete the same structures for cycle wave b, and fairly often their structures are different.


Silver daily 2017
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For this first wave count, upwards movement for intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. It may be unfolding as an impulse.

Within the impulse of intermediate wave (C), only minor wave 1 was over at the last high and now minor wave 2 may now be complete. If it continues lower, then minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 15.197.

Minor wave 2 may have ended very close to the most likely point of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 16.347.

Minor wave 1 lasted 44 days. Minor wave 2 may have completed in 20 days, just one short of a Fibonacci 21.

Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. It would be very likely to show its subdivisions clearly at the daily chart level. Minute waves ii and iv within it should show up as multi day pullbacks or sideways consolidations. Minute wave ii now shows up at the weekly and daily chart levels.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 16.311.



Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

It remains possible for Silver that a large regular contracting or regular barrier triangle may be completing.

Within a triangle, one of the sub-waves must be a more complicated multiple, usually a multiple zigzag. This may be complete for primary wave B.

Primary wave C upwards may now be complete. The upper A-C trend line does have a fairly steep slope though, so it must be accepted that primary wave C may not be over and may continue higher. If it does, it may not move beyond the end of primary wave A above 21.062.

Primary wave C must subdivide as a three wave zigzag.


Silver daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave C now looks complete and primary wave D downwards looks to have begun for this wave count. Primary wave D downwards must subdivide as a zigzag, which subdivides 5-3-5.

Primary wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of primary wave B below 15.197.

Primary wave D of a barrier triangle may end about the same level as primary wave B at 15.197; as long as the B-D trend line is essentially flat, the triangle will remain valid. Unfortunately, there is some subjectivity in this rule; it is not black and white.

Within primary wave D, intermediate wave (A) now looks like a complete impulse. Intermediate wave (B) may now be complete as an expanded flat correction ending just a little above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of intermediate wave (A). At this stage, it looks more likely that intermediate wave (B) is over, but it does remain possible that it could continue higher.

Intermediate wave (B) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (A) above 18.207.



Silver Chart Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

Downwards weeks come with stronger volume than upwards for most recent movement. This volume profile is bearish.

For the short term, the last two completed weeks are upwards weeks and volume shows a clear decline. A further fall in price here may be indicated.


Silver Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

The short term volume profile is unclear. The last wave up did not have support from rising volume. Now downwards movement shows a decline in volume. Both directions look weak.

The Hanging Man pattern has been confirmed by a following downwards day. This supports the second Elliott wave count at least for the short term.

The only thing that is clear about Silver is that price is in a large consolidation.

Published @ 01:22 a.m. EST.