More downwards movement was expected. Price has moved very slightly lower to complete a small range day, which remains well below the short-term invalidation point.
Summary: A short-term target may now be at 1,464 or 1,420. A classic analysis target using the flag pattern is at 1,426.
The bearish Elliott wave count expects a new downwards trend to last one to several years has begun. Confidence in this view may be had if price makes a new low by any amount at any time frame below 1,346.45.
The bullish Elliott wave count expects a primary degree fourth wave is unfolding, forming a large consolidation to end in possibly 5 more sessions. The eventual area of support for the consolidation is expected to be about 1,431.
Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.
Monthly charts were last published here with video here.
BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
It is possible that Super Cycle wave (b) is complete as a double zigzag.
The first zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave w. The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a triangle labelled cycle wave x. The second zigzag in the double is labelled cycle wave y.
The purpose of the second zigzag in a double is to deepen the correction. Cycle wave y has achieved this purpose.
A new low below 1,346.45 would add strong confidence to this wave count. At that stage, the bullish Elliott wave count would be invalidated.
A wide best fit channel is added in light blue. This channel contains all of Super Cycle wave (b) and may provide resistance and support. Copy this channel over to daily charts.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Within cycle wave y, the triangle that ended on the 17th of July may have been primary wave B. Primary wave C may have begun there. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure; it could be a complete impulse.
Within cycle wave y, there is no Fibonacci Ratio between primary waves A and C.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Both hourly charts now see minor wave 2 complete at the last high and minor wave 3 downwards now underway.
For both wave counts, minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Within the impulse, minute wave i may be almost complete. When minute wave i may be complete, then a bounce for minute wave ii may be expected. It may be relatively brief and shallow. Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,534.54.
Minute wave i may end when price finds support about the lower edge of the Elliott channel.
BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
This wave count sees the the bear market complete at the last major low for Gold in November 2015.
If Gold is in a new bull market, then it should begin with a five wave structure upwards on the weekly chart. However, the biggest problem with this wave count is the structure labelled cycle wave I because this wave count must see it as a five wave structure, but it looks more like a three wave structure.
Commodities often exhibit swift strong fifth waves that force the fourth wave corrections coming just prior and just after to be more brief and shallow than their counterpart second waves. It is unusual for a commodity to exhibit a quick second wave and a more time consuming fourth wave, and this is how cycle wave I is labelled. This wave count still suffers from this very substantial problem, and for this reason the bearish wave count is still considered because it has a better fit in terms of Elliott wave structure.
Cycle wave II subdivides well as a double combination: zigzag – X – expanded flat.
Cycle wave III may have begun. Within cycle wave III, primary waves 1 and 2 may now be complete. Primary wave 3 has now moved above the end of primary wave 1 meeting a core Elliott wave rule. It has now moved far enough to allow room for primary wave 4 to unfold and remain above primary wave 1 price territory. Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,346.45.
Cycle wave III so far for this wave count would have been underway now for 58 weeks. It is beginning to exhibit some support from volume and increasing ATR. This wave count now has some support from classic technical analysis.
The channel drawn about cycle wave III is an Elliott channel. Primary wave 4 may find support about the lower edge.
Add the wide best fit channel to weekly and daily charts.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Primary wave 4 may be continuing as an expanded flat, which is a common corrective structure. This would see alternation in structure with the zigzag of primary wave 2.
Primary wave 2 lasted 43 sessions. Primary wave 4 may be expected to be more brief; Gold usually exhibits more brief fourth waves than their counterpart second waves. Primary wave 4 may end in a total Fibonacci 21 or 34 sessions. So far it has lasted 32 sessions. Primary wave 4 may now continue for a further 2 sessions to total a Fibonacci 34, although it may now require longer than that to complete the structure. Within primary wave 4, it would be extremely likely for intermediate wave (C) to move at least slightly below the end of intermediate wave (A) at 1,481.91 to avoid a truncation and a very rare running flat. It would be most likely that primary wave 4 is incomplete because there is not yet a new low below 1,481.91.
Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 1,346.45.
HOURLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge.
Minor wave 2 is now seen in the same way for both wave counts.
This wave count has a higher target for minor wave 3 to reach only equality in length with minor wave 1.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
When trends reach very extreme, candlestick reversal patterns should be given weight. The Dark Cloud Cover bearish reversal pattern is given more bearish weight from the long upper wick.
The risk of a major high and a trend change or a large time consuming consolidation continuing here is very high. These two scenarios effectively follow the main bearish wave count (major trend change) or bullish wave count (a large time consuming consolidation).
A weak bearish signal from On Balance Volume adds confidence to this analysis.
Last week completes a downwards week, but the candlestick has closed green and the balance of volume is upwards. Upwards movement within the week may lack support from volume as volume declines for the week; but to judge the short-term volume profile, it would be best to look inside the week at daily volume bars.
DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
The Bearish Engulfing pattern is very strong. It fully engulfs the real bodies of the prior seven daily candlesticks. Coming after an upwards trend reached very extreme and indicators reached overbought then exhibited multiple bearish divergence with price, the probability here of either a major trend change to a new downwards trend, or a major consolidation to last weeks or months, is very high indeed.
The last swing low is at 1,488.90. A new low below this point would confirm a trend change.
A small flag may be forming. This would be a continuation pattern, so a downwards breakout would be expected. A target calculated from the flag pole would be about 1,426.
The best performing flags and pennants complete within 14 sessions. So far this one has lasted 12 sessions. There has not yet been a breakout. The short-term volume profile and yesterday’s strong candlestick still suggest a downwards breakout may be imminent.
GDX WEEKLY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
A bounce up from support has unfolded last week. Look inside the week to judge the short-term volume profile.
GDX DAILY CHART
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Today has closed below the lower edge of the flag trend line. This is a downwards breakout. A target would be at 23.87.
Published @ 07:32 p.m. EST.
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New updates to this analysis are in bold.
hourly chart updated:
a five down is again complete, finding support at the lower edge of the Elliott channel that contained the big flat correction of minor wave 2.
minute ii may be more brief and shallow than otherwise, due to a strong pull from a third wave at two degrees. the 0.382 Fibonacci Ratio is a first target. if it keeps rising, then the 0.618 Fibonacci Ratio is the next target.
thank you, have a wonderful weekend
Lara, I don’t mean to be a bother but if it’s possible to send out the last minute analysis 5-10 minutes before close it would really help me. I know sometimes you do, but today I didn’t see it till after 4pm EST. I often lighten up positions on weekends when I’m uncertain but today I stayed long as the count was clear to me. If it’s possible to get it up by 3:55 I’d really appreciate it.
Many thanks for all you do – really enjoying my subscription
Robert
This will get a lot easier for me when daylight savings here in NZ happens.
The problem is that it’s early in the morning when NY closes here in NZ. And I suffer badly from insomnia. If I’ve not been sleeping well, and can fall asleep towards the morning, then I need to sleep.
Daylight saving begins tonight in NZ, that means I’ll have an extra hour in my mornings before NY closes. And I’ll make a stronger effort to have an update before NY closes, particularly on Friday.
Thank you very much, I didn’t realize the time difference. There are some good sleep supplements with valerian root I’ve used which helped me on long fights. Maybe you’ve tried them?
Thanks again for everything and have a wonderful weekend
PS – This is the supplement I’ve used, it’s very good.
https://www.amazon.com/Non-Habit-Supplement-Melatonin-Chamomile-Magnesium/dp/B07B437R5L
Thanks Robert. I use liquid melatonin which works very well indeed. Most nights I sleep well, but occasionally I just don’t.
It’s been an issue for me since childhood. I manage it as well as I can. More surf would help, but lately the surf Gods have not been co-operating 🙂