A bounce this week has unfolded as expected.

Summary: Sideways movement may continue for a few weeks in a range with support about 11.70 and resistance about 14.46 or 16.16. Thereafter, the downwards trend may resume. The final target is at 5.806.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

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The bear market for Silver may be incomplete. Within a bearish movement, in the middle there should be a large interruption to the trend in the form of a B wave; bearish movements should have a three wave look to them. This wave count expects that normal look.

This Elliott wave structure for this bear market is labelled as a single zigzag for Grand Super Cycle wave II. Single zigzags are the most common Elliott wave corrective structure.

Within the zigzag, Super Cycle wave (a) subdivides as a five wave impulse, and Super Cycle wave (b) may now be a complete double combination. Super Cycle wave (c) may have begun and must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse (much more likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely but still possible).

A target is now calculated for Super Cycle wave (c) to complete the zigzag for Grand Super Cycle wave II. Calculations using the more common ratios of equality and 0.618 yield negative results, so the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence of 0.382 is used.

Within Super Cycle wave (c), no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 19.628.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of Grand Super Cycle wave II: draw the first trend line from the start of Super Cycle wave (a) to the end of Super Cycle wave (b), then place a parallel copy on the end of Super Cycle wave (a). The lower edge of then channel may provide support and may show where Grand Super Cycle wave II finally ends.

WEEKLY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double combination.

Super Cycle wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, most likely an impulse.

Cycle waves I through to III may be complete. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory above 17.786.

DAILY CHART

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Cycle wave IV may have begun. Cycle wave IV may not move into cycle wave I price territory above 17.786.

Cycle wave II was a rare triple combination that lasted 24 weeks and was deep at 0.616 of cycle wave I. Cycle wave IV may exhibit alternation as a zigzag, although it may subdivide as any Elliott wave corrective structure. Cycle wave IV may most likely be shallow and so resistance about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio may hold.

Cycle wave IV may be more brief than cycle wave II; fourth waves tend to be more brief than second waves in commodities, particularly if fourth waves are zigzags. However, it may still be expected to last at least a few weeks.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

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An inside week closes green. Upwards movement within the week lacks support from volume. This looks so far like a bounce within an ongoing downwards trend.

DAILY CHART

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The downwards trend may have ended at this time frame.

The last two red daily candlesticks look like a pause within either a large bounce or a new upwards trend.

Published @ 03:03 p.m. EST on March 28, 2020.

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