A bounce may be over and the downwards trend may now resume.

Summary: A new first target is at 8.593. If price reaches this first target and either the Elliott wave structure is incomplete or price keeps falling through it, then the next target would be at 5.806.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

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The bear market for Silver may be nearing completion. Within a bearish movement, in the middle there should be a large interruption to the trend in the form of a B wave; bearish movements should have a three wave look to them. This wave count expects that normal look.

This Elliott wave structure for this bear market is labelled as a single zigzag for Grand Super Cycle wave II. Single zigzags are the most common Elliott wave corrective structure.

Within the zigzag, Super Cycle wave (a) subdivides as a five wave impulse, and Super Cycle wave (b) may now be a complete double combination. Super Cycle wave (c) may have begun and must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, either an impulse (much more likely) or an ending diagonal (less likely but still possible).

A target is now calculated for Super Cycle wave (c) to complete the zigzag for Grand Super Cycle wave II. Calculations using the more common ratios of equality and 0.618 yield negative results, so the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence of 0.382 is used.

Within Super Cycle wave (c), no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 19.628.

Draw a channel about the zigzag of Grand Super Cycle wave II: draw the first trend line from the start of Super Cycle wave (a) to the end of Super Cycle wave (b), then place a parallel copy on the end of Super Cycle wave (a). The lower edge of then channel may provide support and may show where Grand Super Cycle wave II finally ends.

WEEKLY CHART

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Super Cycle wave (b) may be a complete double combination.

Super Cycle wave (c) must subdivide as a five wave motive structure, most likely an impulse.

Cycle waves I through to IV may be complete. If cycle wave IV continues further, then it may not move into cycle wave I price territory above 17.786.

DAILY CHART

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The narrow channel drawn about cycle wave IV is a best fit. This channel is now breached by downwards movement, which may be taken as an indication that cycle wave IV may be complete.

Cycle wave IV may be a single zigzag, which is the most common Elliott wave corrective structure. Within this wave count: there would be alternation between a time consuming triple combination for cycle wave II and a quicker single zigzag of cycle wave IV. Fourth waves are often more brief than their counterpart second waves for commodities.

Cycle wave IV has remained below cycle wave I price territory. All Elliott wave rules for an impulse are met.

Cycle wave V may have begun. It must subdivide as a five wave motive structure. Within cycle wave V: no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 15.810.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

A slight push from volume and a long upper wick suggest more downwards movement next week.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Technically, the candlestick of April the 15th is not correctly a Bearish Engulfing pattern because the open was below the close of the prior candlestick. But the close of April the 15th is very bearish because it is below the open of the prior candlestick. 

It is possible that this bounce may be over. On Balance Volume should be watched carefully for a breakout.

Published @ 06:26 p.m. EST on April 18, 2020.

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New updates to this analysis are in bold.