A break slightly above 1,266.27 to 1,266.75 meant price was expected to continue higher, but this was not what happened.
The alternate hourly Elliott wave count was confirmed with a new low below 1,255.66. At that stage, the target was 1,243.50.
Summary: It is highly likely that a third wave up should continue on Monday towards 1,320. The risk to the wave count is at 1,225.95. Until there is a small five up on the hourly chart, the invalidation point must remain here.
New updates to this analysis are in bold.
Last published weekly chart is here.
DAILY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
Gold has very likely changed from bear to bull.
So far, within the first five up, the middle of the third wave is now most likely complete. The strongest move may still be ahead. Gold often exhibits swift strong fifth waves typical of commodities.
Ratios within minor wave 3 are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minute waves iii and i, and minute wave v is just 0.07 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave i.
There is perfect alternation between the deep double zigzag of minor wave 2 and the very shallow 0.23 expanded flat correction of minor wave 4.
Minor wave 4 is within the price territory of one lesser degree. Minute wave iv has its range from 1,261.94 to 1,190.9.
Upwards movement has confirmed that the last wave down within minor wave 4 is complete. The probability that minor wave 4 in its entirety is complete is high. Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 1,225.95.
Minor wave 1 lasted one day. Minor wave 2 lasted nine days (one longer than a Fibonacci eight). Minor wave 3 lasted fifty four days (one short of a Fibonacci fifty five). Minor wave 4 lasted seven days (one short of a Fibonacci eight).
At this stage, minor wave 5 may be expected to last either a Fibonacci five or eight days. It may be swift and strong but not necessarily extended. It is very likely to end with a strong upwards day on a volume spike.
HOURLY ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
Click chart to enlarge.
Minute wave ii is most likely now a complete double zigzag, which is how it subdivides best on the five minute chart and how it looks on the hourly chart. Minute wave ii has fallen 4.72 short of the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i which is at 1.243.1.
Minute wave iii should show an increase in upwards momentum beyond that seen for minute wave i.
The pink channel is a base channel about minute waves i and ii. Along the way up, minute wave iii should have the power to break above the upper edge of the base channel.
At 1,320 minute wave iii would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave i. This fits with the higher target for minor wave 5 to end at 1,338 where it would reach 2.618 the length of minor wave 1.
Double zigzags are common structures. Triple zigzags are very rare. I have only ever seen four or five of them during my eight years of daily Elliott wave analysis. If my labelling of minute wave ii as a double zigzag is correct, then the only way it could continue lower now would be as a very rare triple zigzag. The probability of this is very low. But low probability is not the same as no probability. And my labelling of minute ii as a double zigzag could be wrong.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 1,225.95. This is the risk with the wave count at this stage.
If a small five up develops at the hourly chart level, then the invalidation point will be moved up to the end of minute wave ii. A small five up would confirm that minute wave iii is underway.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.
Two small red daily candlesticks with small real bodies with Friday’s candlestick a doji indicates that although price has moved lower it is hesitant. The bears are winning but not with conviction. Friday’s downwards movement also comes with a decline in volume. The fall in price for Friday was not supported by volume and is suspicious. This is most likely a small correction against the trend.
This strongly supports the Elliott wave count.
ADX is still flat and price is still within the consolidation zone. There has not yet been a breakout.
During the consolidation which began back on 7th March, it is still an upwards day which shows strongest volume. This indicates an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards. This is usually a reliable indicator of price direction for Gold.
ATR is also flat, in agreement with ADX.
On Balance Volume is slightly breaking below the lower orange trend line. If this break becomes clearer on Monday, that would be concerning for the Elliott wave count and would indicate that the wave count may be wrong. If OBV turns up from here on Monday, the strength of that line would be reinforced. That would be a bullish signal.
Neither RSI nor Stochastics are extreme. There is room for price to rise or fall.
This analysis is published @ 02:07 a.m. EST on 19th March, 2016.
This move down is an extension of minuette wave (y) most likely.
And I expect it needs one final new low to complete the structure.
Importantly, this downwards movement will not subdivide as a five. There is too much overlapping; the rule for a fourth wave to not move into first wave price territory cannot be met.
This downwards movement looks corrective. It has reached to just below the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. It is still most likely a second wave correction.
I can see a small fourth wave triangle on the hourly and five minute chart, so a small final fifth wave down should end it. At 1,240 micro 5 = micro 1. The most common ratio.
Golds fifth waves to follow its fourth wave triangles are often surprisingly short.
Draw a best fit channel about this downwards movement. Wait for it to be breached before any confidence may be had in a trend change. A new high above 1,258.45 would provide substantial confidence at this stage; that could not be a second wave correction within an impulse unfolding down so at that stage expect a third wave up is underway.
An Elliott Wave Picasso, beautiful!
🙂
I’m concerned with that huge volume spike (pointed out, gold arrow) for a downwards hour.
Does anyone know what may have happened to create that spike?
Do not see anything like that on my trading platform, just normal volumes…
Me too now.
It was there.
And now it’s gone.
I am not showing a volume spike either
3:59pm.
The U.S. dollar steadily strengthened against its main rivals during Monday’s session after two regional Fed presidents said they would support the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its April meeting.
News releases on MarketWatch EST
12:40pm Fed’s Lockhart says interest rate increase possible as early as April
Fed’s Lockhart says interest rate hike possible as early as April
Published: Mar 21, 2016 1:03 p.m. ET EST
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-lockhart-says-interest-rate-hike-possible-as-early-as-april-2016-03-21
This news may have cause a Gold sell off as interest hike is bearish gold.
Gold ends below $1,250 as Fed officials float April rate hike
Mar 21, 2016 3:01 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-dips-below-1250-an-ounce-after-heady-run-2016-03-21
I checked gold volume on TOS Think or Swim trading platform and 9 had most volume then 8, 10, 11 am then 1 pm in that order in decending size.
Gold/Silver Ratio Near Ten-year Highs; Should We Care?
Mar 15, 2016 -Guest(s): Peter Hug Director, Global Trading, Kitco Metals
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/For-Petes-Sake/1219/2016-03-15/GoldSilver-Ratio-Near-Ten-year-Highs-Should-We-Care
At the 3:00 point in the video Peter discusses Silver.
“Gold should outperform silver until industrial demand for Silver increases.”
Relax, Not Time To Cash In Gold Yet Says Analyst
Mar 21, 2016
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-News/1221/2016-03-21/Relax-Not-Time-To-Cash-In-Gold-Yet-Says-Analyst
‘Everyone thinks gold will come down below $1,200 but at these levels, [I think] $1,225 is as good as it will get.’
Lara
Minutte 2 is taking time…so does this support the idea of minutte 3 getting extended..??
Yes, definitely.
I believe that the retrace target has been hit today at $1,243.70.
1,271.02 high March 17th
-1,226.81 low March 16th
= 44.21 x .618 = 27.32
1,271.02 – 27.32 = $1,243.70 is .618 retrace target.
Not sure if this should be calculated this way?
Any comments?
Its possible…just hope that we must not see a new low now…
The low today was 1240.25… it was made during assian session> till then still choppy i see price in final wave 5 down, looking for 1232-1239 final low and hoping for a spike down and then spike back up, that should end this nonsense…. I am also looking at silver for 15,5-15,65 buy zone now, target 16,8 but after that… 18. However, I am on a loss now also, just my 2cents 🙂
I have removed your chart.
I have asked twice before that you put all labels of all degrees on your charts. Your charts are still missing degrees of labelling.
Putting all the degrees of all labels on your charts makes them much easier to read.
I had all the degrees I believe, I will not post anymore charts if it bothers you, I was just trying to help and talk to people.
No, I mean, for example: you have A-B- and then you miss C to end say a second wave correction.
At the end of each wave you have only one label. Not the lower degree that ends there.
Look at the labels on my charts. You will see at the end of waves the degrees are all labelled, I “stack” them up.
Leaving them out makes your charts very hard to follow and understand.
I know you’re trying to help, and you are most helpful. And you are most welcome to be part of this discussion. Don’t let my removing your chart stop you from doing that.
I just need all EW charts posted here to have all degrees of labelling.
Ok… I did not have time to put colours and small/big caps and so on for it to be clear. My count is same as yours except i see wave X top at the 2nd swing high (truncated at 1265.3 or so where u placed wave 2 of a of Y). That is because after that on my 5min chart i can see 5 clear impulsive wave down which then end wave a of Y but at the exact same spot yours does. That’s all, I also asked and posted this chart on friday as was not sure where to put the end for wave Y, but you did not respond me… I am now convinced however that I have labeled it correct, considering the extension of the correction we had today= which I expect to end also very very soon with same wave 5 of c of Y in which we are now … 🙂
YES ,GOLD GOT TO 1241.3 overnight , does”t that count ?
YES ,GOLD GOT TO 1240.3 overnight , does”t that count ?
I’m gonna make a call that GDX day low buying time was 10:58 am at $20.31 GDX.
There are 6 time frames for gold and GDX all bullish now at 12:10 pm the 1,3,5,15,39 and 78 minutes time frames all bullish right now and GDX at $20.64.
… there is no clarity…. Gold price appears to be range bound between 1250/1240 with overlapping, choppy movement…. I wonder what is in store a break above 1252/53 for more or a break below 1241/40 for deeper decline…. With Gold price weak below 20dma, likely a break below 1241/40, lets see….
Do you have any TA argument to support a major break below 1240? If it happens it can only be short lived, gold and specially silver are oversold and displaying nice negative divergence with price as we speak. A break of the declining channel which I expect soon would confirm the start of another big and fast impulsive up. I have target 18+$ for silver btw which displays a very clear breakout cup& handle pattern on daily chart or 4h, the base of the cup getting also tested as we speak… The 20MA makes no importance, it got cut abit last week too only to burst right thru it with force after. Unless gold breaks 1225 i see no reason to exit longs.
If gold does hit Lara’s target of $1,338, which is $94 higher than the $1,244 where it is now then I could see that Silver may hit your $18 target.
Ok well where I marked 2 might have been in fact ii and it is over, not sure … 😉
Where is lara…
Her comment gives a sense of internal confidance…
Lara may comment at 2 pm EST as she is sleeping now in New Zealand.
Looking at the five minute chart before I comment
I put a lot of value on the 5 minute time frames for trades and was advised to do so by the professional trader I know. He day trades and gets a lot of profits using 5 minutes on his trading platform.
It’s interesting that 5 minutes is also important for EW counts.
I only look at the five minute chart if the hourly isn’t clear, or if I want to double check that something subdivides as a three or a five.
I don’t look at it everyday.
And TBH for my own trading (say, on NZDUSD) I don’t even look at hourly. I trade from the daily and weekly charts.
Maybe the double zigzag can be this…..
Looks like a good possibility.
That’s what I thought too, but it doesn’t fit on the five minute chart for the triangle of wave B within the second zigzag of wave Y
Thanks Lara!
Just A View:…. at this stage a break below a rising support at 1230 will upset the applecart and seek lower…. remains to be seen if the recent low 1237/36 holds…. looking to short this anywhere between 1248-58 if this can get back to there….
If your looking to short gold hopefully it’s just intraday using numerous of the top indicators along with an EW count all perhaps at the 5 minute time frame.
Playing contrarian here. Interesting chart, very:
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/gold-rallies-10-percent-in-9-weeks-march-15.jpg
I like Kimble charting, but the issue with this indicator is that it can go higher before a bigger correction starts. Look at Sept 2011.
Sure it may go higher now , however if we look at September 2011 that was a huge 5th wave parabolic top of a 10 year bull run when gold bullish sentiment was at a worldwide peak and headline news gold was the best investment, so not comparable to a 2 month rally in gold.
I agree with Richard’s comment that the parabolic move ATH 2011 isn’t comparable. But what I’m noticing now is how the ROC is now above (and re-testing?) the 3-yr long horizontal blue resistance line. So begs to answer… is this time different? I don’t know! Time will tell.
Gold just needs 1 more week up to complete minor wave 5, intermediate wave (1) , then gold can crash back down into oversold territory again, where the miners will be discount bargains ready for intermediate wave (3) up.
“If my labelling of minute wave ii as a double zigzag is correct, then the only way it could continue lower now would be as a very rare triple zigzag. The probability of this is very low. But low probability is not the same as no probability. And my labelling of minute ii as a double zigzag could be wrong. Minute wave ii may not move below 1,225.95.”
Still suggest that we are in correction…volume of this hourly fall will be low…lets see how markets react after europe opens
This is exciting. Is it a tripple, or will it just blow up- I mean down? Hopefully I’ll be awake enough in my early hours to make a decent decision. Bye for now.
What sl can we keep for our longss…
Any suggestion.??
Anyways a strong feel i have that in europian markets gold will rise…yaa i know thers no space for feeling here
Personal feeling vs market gold bullish/bearish sentiment?
Gold just plunged dropping hard down to 1,245.04 at 1:48 am EST.
Hopefully gold moves up from there staying above the 1,243.50 the target given in the March 17th analysis. “Alternatively, a new low below 1,255.56 would indicate that a second wave correction is deepening towards 1,243.50.”
Gold is now at 1,250 at the lower trend line of the hourly chart. Lara had minute wave ii ending at the low of 1,247.90 at 8:20 am EST Friday. Looking for gold to increase up in momentum in minute wave iii Monday.
Lara, is there any way that the degrees could be moved down(?) and we have already seen Minor 5 complete? (Minute iii becoming Minor 3 and Minute v becoming Minor 5)? Price action seems toppy to me. And COT data still has commercials sitting in their shorts. You’ve probably already considered this and discussed this, could you point me to the link where it was considered/discarded?
Also I like the view of the weekly chart on your software, but can we get this picture updated– just a view of current status is okay, no lengthy description needed. It would be helpful.
Your help is appreciated. Thank you.
If the high I have labelled minute iii is moved up one degree to minor 3 then minute iii has a problem. It doesn’t subdivide so well as an impulse on the hourly chart.
But minute iii would then be where minuette iii is currently, right? So I understand minuette iii doesn’t subdivide well?? Lara, what would this sideways downward movement be labeld as (since March 4) if Minor 3 were to be Minor 5? Looking at a “what if” chart.
Hi everyone..
Why mr gold is so lazyy..lolzz.. 🙂
3rd of 5th it must go wild…
What happend..??..
My longs are excited…