Click on charts to enlarge.
The first thing I have some confidence in for this wave count is the structure of primary wave 1 downwards as a five. This indicates a trend change at the high of 0.88435.
Primary wave 1 subdivides as a leading expanding diagonal (albeit with a shorter than expected fifth wave). Leading diagonals in first wave positions are commonly followed by very deep second wave corrections. Primary wave 2 is likely to be over now as a deep 93% correction of primary wave 1.
Primary wave 2 subdivides as a double zigzag. The second zigzag has deepened the correction and primary wave 2 slopes upwards.
I have drawn a best fit channel about primary wave 2. When this channel is breached by a full weekly candlestick below the lower trend line and not touching it, then I would have full and final confidence that the Kiwi should move to new lows. At that stage a third wave would be underway.
At 0.63631 primary wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of primary wave 1.
Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 above 0.88435.
The daily chart shows the structure within the end of intermediate wave (Y) of primary wave 2.
Minor wave C is again a complete five wave impulse. The channel drawn about minor wave C is using Elliott’s second technique, and the channel is very clearly breached by downwards movement. This indicates minor wave C is over and the next wave is underway.
The downwards movement which breached the channel also subdivides nicely as a five wave impulse on the daily chart. This supports the wave count and indicates a new downwards wave has begun which is incomplete.
Within minor wave 1 downwards minute wave i is complete. I would expect to now see a correction for minute wave ii which may be deep enough to find resistance at the lower edge of the channel containing minor wave C. Once this throwback is complete then I would expect to see a strong third wave downwards.
Minute wave i lasted 17 days. I would expect minute wave ii to last about the same.
Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 0.87796.
okay, I’ll put charts up shortly.
theres no change to the wave count though, its doing exactly what I expected, so you can use the old charts, the new ones won’t tell you anything substantially different.
yes.
subminuette waves i and ii are complete.
I think subminuette wave iii is now close to completion… but I would need to check that on a five minute chart.
either way, its not done yet. the target looks about right.
waiting for ur update about nzd/usd
Hello Lara,
It looks like the downtrend for NZD has finally begun.
Do you have ideas how long it may take to get to 0.63631?
Thanks in advance
Primary wave 1 lasted just 15 weeks. Primary wave 2 was exceptionally deep and long lasting, at 137 weeks.
Primary wave 3 will probably be longer in both length and duration than primary wave 1. It will have two big long lasting intermediate corrections along the way down. 0.63631 could be met in about 2 years, maybe close to a Fibonacci 89 weeks?
Fially, the NZD finished the Primary 2 this time, I feel that Kiwi and Australia dollar pairs just like the gold and silver pairs, the Australia dollar was on the way of rebounce in the past 3 months, so the Kiwi come after Aus and extended its Primary 2 in minor C. I believe Aus has finished its intermediate wave 4 correction and resume its bear wave in the stage of intermediate 5