US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2014

Last analysis looked for the arrival of a second wave correction. The correction was indicated when the channel on the hourly chart was breached. The correction is most likely incomplete. I am now expecting price to move higher to a short term target at 101.76 to 102.21 before a resumption of the downwards trend.

Click on charts to enlarge.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2014

The daily chart shows all of the start of cycle wave c downwards.

Minor wave 1 subdivides perfectly as an impulse. Minor wave 2 is now complete as an expanded flat correction which is a 66% correction of minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2 minute wave b is 106% the length of minute wave a, and minute wave c is 0.59 short of 1.618 the length of minute wave a.

At 72.53 minor wave 3 would reach 1.618 the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days and minor wave 2 lasted 67 days. If minor wave 3 is of about the same duration it may end in another 50 days or thereabouts.

The channel drawn about minor waves 1 and 2 is a base channel. Minor wave 3 downwards should clearly and strongly breach the lower edge of the channel. Along the way down upwards corrections should find resistance about the upper edge of the channel.

Within minor wave 3 minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2014

The hourly chart shows all of minute wave ii so far. It is an incomplete corrective structure and I expect it to move higher.

Within minute wave ii subminuette wave a may have been a leading contracting diagonal. Subminuette wave b may have been a complete flat correction. At 101.76 subminuette wave c would reach equality in length with subminuette wave a. At 102.21 minute wave ii would reach up to the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i.

If the target is met in another three days then minute wave ii will be equal in duration to minute wave i.

The green channel is drawn using Elliott’s technique for a correction about minute wave ii. So far the lower edge is providing support. It should continue to do so while minute wave ii continues higher. Subminuette wave c may overshoot the upper edge of the channel (sometimes C waves do this). When the channel is breached by subsequent downwards movement that would be the first indication that minute wave ii should be over and minute wave iii may have begun.

When minute wave ii upwards is complete then the next downwards wave would be a third wave within a third wave. This should show strong downwards momentum.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 105.21.

5 thoughts on “US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 25th March, 2014

  1. It looks like minute ii completed right at the 61.8% retrace with clear neg divergence at the top on the hourly chart. Let’s see if that third of a third wave down starts next week!

  2. If an invalidation point is breached then the way I have the chart labeled is ruled out.

    You will notice the invalidation points on the hourly charts are closer than the daily invalidation points. This is because as a wave unfolds there is more than one way to label it. The hourly chart may become invalidated because my labeling may be wrong, but that may still leave the bigger picture (and trend) intact if the daily chart is not invalidated.

      1. My target would be 89.54 to end in about 2 weeks.

        For confidence in this prediction I would want to see a channel about minute wave ii breached by downwards movement.

  3. Thank you Lara. I need to learn more about EW so I can appreciate your detailed analysis and figure out if one of your options is ruled out in between updates but in the meantime its really helping my trading.
    Amr

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