The Trading Room is a new idea that I want to test and develop over the next few months.
I find myself spending a lot of time writing and publishing analysis of Gold and the S&P500 (over at Elliott Wave Stock Market) when those markets are quiet and range bound and offer no good trading opportunities. This focus on inactive markets takes focus away from markets that are trending and do offer good trading opportunities.
What if the focus was on finding good trading opportunities over a range of markets rather than daily analysis of specific markets? What if the Trading Room can be the platform for publishing these good trading opportunities?
Therefore, this Trading Room approach will look over a range of markets to identify any possible trading set ups which may unfold now or over the next few days, and the focus will be on trading set ups and not on teaching and learning Elliott wave.
Analysis will be brief and to the point.
As always, it is essential that anyone using this analysis for trading advice manages risk carefully. Follow my two Golden Rules:
1. Always use a stop.
2. Never invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.
Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Failure to follow my two Golden Rules of trading indicates failure to manage risk.
Today’s Trading Room focuses on NZDUSD, EURUSD, USD, and GDX:
So far upwards movement should be assumed to be a counter trend movement, until proven otherwise. The prior wave down put ADX into extreme and upwards movement from the 3rd of January has brought ADX back down from extreme. There is again room for a trend to develop.
Single divergence with Stochastics on its own is not enough to indicate a high in place. A breach of a support line should be seen before entering short.
Stockcharts do not offer volume data for currencies, so this is analysed below with BarChart data.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS
The best fit channel is slightly adjusted to be more conservative than the last published chart for EURUSD. If price can print a full daily candlestick below the lower edge of the yellow channel, that would offer further confidence in a trend change. When that trend line is breached, then it should offer resistance.
Stops may be set a little above the trend line offering a low risk high reward opportunity. Do not set stops too close to the line; allow the market room to move. Sometimes trend lines are overshot and this trend line is not perfect.
On Balance Volume has confidently breached a horizontal support line which offers strong technical significance. A retest of resistance at that line shows it holds. This is a strong bearish signal.
Classic technical analysis of this pair is very bearish. The long upper wick on this last daily candlestick is bearish. This trend is extreme; it will end sooner rather than later.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS + VOLUME ANALYSIS
On Balance Volume has no trend line. Any trend line drawn would have too steep a slope to have reasonable technical significance.
If an expanding diagonal is unfolding, then minute iv must be either over now or very close indeed. There is almost no room left for it to move.
I have been analysing NZDUSD (because I’m a Kiwi) for years using Elliott wave and I will note that NZDUSD rarely offers good looking Elliott wave structures. Therefore, I place more weight in classic analysis of this pair than Elliott wave analysis. The Elliott wave analysis is supplementary.
I will wait for the green support line to be fully breached before going short here.
There is not enough bullish indication here to go long yet. Upwards movement on this chart is a clear trend and downwards movement is choppy and overlapping, so downwards movement looks more like a counter trend movement. If that conclusion is correct, then USD should break out upwards.
The larger trend at the monthly chart level remains up and the 200 day moving average still has a positive slope.
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS
Neither Stockcharts nor BarChart have volume data.
The short term yellow resistance line has been breached. However, the long upper wicks on the last two daily candlesticks gives some cause for concern.
Price may be bouncing up from the lower edge of the best fit channel. With another upwards day moving further away from the trend line, a long position may be entered. A stop may be set just below the last low.
Next resistance is at 26.0.
This chart is provided today mostly for members of Elliott Wave Gold and not because I see a trading set up here, because I don’t. (That doesn’t mean one does not exist, only that I don’t see it today).
Going long here risks entering at the end of the trend. ADX is nearing extreme and price has closed above the upper edge of Bollinger Bands now for the last four sessions.
Going short here is trying to pick a top. Before going short at least two of the following should be seen: a bearish candlestick pattern, a break of support by On Balance Volume, divergence with price from RSI while overbought, price to move below the short term 13 day moving average.
This analysis is published @ 02:59 a.m. EST.