Category Archives: Public Analysis

BTCUSD: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 19th September, 2018

Bitcoin continues to move mostly sideways, with a slight downwards bias.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. Now that a backtest about the support line is complete, price may be expected to continue to move downwards from this line.

At this time, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a third wave down at four degrees.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis was used to identify a high in place on the 23rd of December, 2017.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the weekly chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at five degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

The best fit channel has only weak technical significance.

The Forever trend line is not perfectly showing where price found support and has then found resistance for a typical back test. However, it is about where price found support and resistance. The breach and back test are highly significant.

My alternate bullish wave count was discarded because the Forever trend line is properly breached and now has a successful backtest.

I have again searched to find if a five down could be seen as complete. At this time, I cannot yet see either a complete impulse or a leading diagonal.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

The following can be noted when looking back at Bitcoin’s behaviour during its previous strong falls in price:

The 94% fall in price from June to November 2011 was characterised by:

– Three clearly separate instances of RSI reaching oversold on the daily chart, separated by bounces.

– ADX did not remain very extreme for very long at all on the daily chart.

– On Balance Volume exhibited weak single bullish divergence at the low.

The 93% fall in price from November 2013 to February 2014 was characterised by:

– RSI reached oversold and remained deeply oversold for three weeks; at the low there was only single weak bullish divergence with price.

– ADX remained very extreme for the last seven sessions to the low.

– At the low, On Balance Volume did not exhibit bullish divergence with price; it remained bearish and then exhibited further bearishness after the low as it continued to decline as price began to rise.

For the current fall in price, the current Elliott wave count expects the fall to be larger in terms of duration than the previous two noted here, and at least equivalent in terms of price movement in that a fall of over 90% is expected now. Currently, ADX is not yet extreme and RSI is not yet oversold. There is plenty of room for this downwards trend in Bitcoin to continue.

Watch On Balance Volume carefully over the next couple of weeks or so. If it breaks out of the current range before price does, then it may signal the breakout direction for price. Both price and On Balance Volume are currently range bound.

Published @ 05:25 a.m. EST.

Bitcoin: Motive Wave Data Import + Updating Elliott Wave Counts | Video – 18th September, 2018

This video is a recording of the process I have gone through to upload the latest data to my MotiveWave Bitcoin charts and a recording of the beginning stages of updating the Elliott wave counts.

This video is not my usual analysis of a market.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2018

Last Elliott wave analysis of this pair (July 2018) expected more downwards movement, which is what has occurred.

Summary: It looks most likely that price may overall rise to about 1.20761 over the next three to eight months. Within the expected rise, there may be a sharp pullback or time consuming sideways consolidation for a B wave.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The (0) is from where the wave count begins.

A large zigzag can be seen complete at the low in March 2015. This is labelled Super Cycle wave (w).

A low now below this point indicates that the larger structure downwards is incomplete. The Elliott wave structure that fits best here is a double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is complete; it is labelled Super Cycle wave (w). The double is now joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, an expanded flat labelled Super Cycle wave (x). Because Super Cycle wave (x) ends just short of the cyan bear market trend line, it looks like it is over there.

Super Cycle wave (y) is most likely now to unfold as a zigzag.

While double zigzags and double combinations are labelled the same, W-X-Y, they are very different structures.

Double zigzags, like single zigzags, normally have a strong counter trend slope. To achieve this their X waves are usually brief and shallow. The second zigzag in the double usually moves reasonably beyond the end of the first zigzag, so that the whole structure has a strong slope.

Double combinations are sideways movements. To achieve a sideways look their X waves are usually deep and can also often be time consuming. The second structure in the double usually ends about the same level as the first, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

Here, Super Cycle wave (x) is relatively shallow. This indicates a double zigzag is most likely unfolding lower.

The bear market trend line may be expected to continue to provide resistance while the bear market for EURUSD remains intact.

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart focusses on the start of Super Cycle wave (y).

A new wave down at Super Cycle degree should begin with a five down. At this stage, that looks to be complete; it is labelled as primary wave 1.

Following a five down, a three up should develop. This is labelled primary wave 2.

Primary wave 1 lasted six months. Primary wave 2 may be expected to last from at least a Fibonacci three months up to a more likely Fibonacci five or eight months. Primary wave 2 must subdivide as a corrective structure. It would most likely end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1, but it could be deeper than that.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The symmetrical triangle noted in last analysis completed and saw a breakout to the downside. At that stage, a target using the measured rule would have been about 1.1278. Price fell short of this target by only 24 pips before turning.

Currently, price has reached resistance and Stochastics is overbought. However, Stochastics may remain overbought for some time. Not until it exhibits bearish divergence with price would a strong warning of a high in place be seen.

It looks like a new upwards trend may be developing. Look for next resistance about 1.187.

Overall, this analysis supports the Elliott wave count.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

For the short term, volume supports upwards movement. On Balance Volume is very bullish. More upwards movement should be expected.

This analysis is published @ 04:56 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2018

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement at the daily chart level to complete primary wave A. This is what has happened.

Summary: A pullback here or a time consuming sideways consolidation may develop for primary wave B. Thereafter, the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

For the USD Index, historically the first second wave correction within a new trend is usually extremely deep, about 0.80 to 0.90 of the first wave it corrects. It would be typical here to see Cycle wave II reach to 0.80 or deeper of cycle wave I.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

Primary wave A may now be a completed five wave impulse. Primary wave B may now begin.

Primary wave B may last anywhere from a Fibonacci 13 up to a Fibonacci 55 weeks. It may be either a relatively quick sharp pullback as a zigzag, or a more time consuming large sideways consolidation as a flat, combination or triangle.

When primary wave B is complete, then the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C, which may end reasonably close to 103.82 but not above this point.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave A fits very well as a complete five wave impulse.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that would provide confidence that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may have begun.

Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 88.25.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last analysis noted the consolidation with resistance in a zone about 95 to 95.45. Price broke above resistance, and now downwards movement may be a backtest of support at prior resistance.

If support holds here, then expect price to bounce up and move higher.

Published @ 01:23 a.m. EST.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2018

Bitcoin has moved sideways since last analysis.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. Now that a backtest about the support line is complete, price may be expected to continue to move downwards from this line.

At this time, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a third wave down at four degrees.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis was used to identify a high in place on the 23rd of December, 2017.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the weekly chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at four degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

The best fit channel was not perfectly showing where bounces found resistance, so it has been adjusted. This channel has only weak technical significance.

The Forever trend line is not perfectly showing where price found support and has then found resistance for a typical back test. However, it is about where price found support and resistance. The breach and back test are highly significant.

My alternate bullish wave count is now discarded because the Forever trend line is properly breached and now has a successful backtest.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

The following can be noted when looking back at Bitcoin’s behaviour during its previous strong falls in price:

The 94% fall in price from June to November 2011 was characterised by:

– Three clearly separate instances of RSI reaching oversold on the daily chart, separated by bounces.

– ADX did not remain very extreme for very long at all on the daily chart.

– On Balance Volume exhibited weak single bullish divergence at the low.

The 93% fall in price from November 2013 to February 2014 was characterised by:

– RSI reached oversold and remained deeply oversold for three weeks; at the low there was only single weak bullish divergence with price.

– ADX remained very extreme for the last seven sessions to the low.

– At the low, On Balance Volume did not exhibit bullish divergence with price; it remained bearish and then exhibited further bearishness after the low as it continued to decline as price began to rise.

For the current fall in price, the current Elliott wave count expects the fall to be larger in terms of duration than the previous two noted here, and at least equivalent in terms of price movement in that a fall of over 90% is expected now. Currently, ADX is not yet extreme and RSI is not yet oversold. There is plenty of room for this downwards trend in Bitcoin to continue.

Published @ 11:11 p.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 3rd August, 2018

Last analysis on the 10th of June expected a deep correction for a B wave. Price has mostly moved sideways, and has now formed a fairly well defined consolidation zone. A correction has developed, but at this stage it is not deep.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

So far upwards movement has developed a little more since last analysis. This now looks like an almost complete five up.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

When primary wave A is a completed five wave impulse, then primary wave B should begin.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

So far primary wave A fits very well as an almost complete five wave impulse.

There is excellent alternation between the double flat correction of intermediate wave (2) and the triangle of intermediate wave (4). There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (1) and (3).

Within intermediate wave (3), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that may be an indication that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may then have begun.

While primary wave A looks incomplete, intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

When primary wave A could be complete, then the following correction for primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag. It may be expected to last anywhere from about 4 to 8 months.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is consolidating with resistance in a zone about 95.00 to 95.45 and support in a zone about 93.45 to about 92.85. Unfortunately, neither StockCharts nor BarChart provide volume data for the USD Index. If they did, then the direction of the day with strongest volume would be an indicator of the most likely breakout direction from the consolidation.

Published @ 08:53 p.m. EST on 4th August, 2018.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2018

Last analysis of this pair was in January 2017. In that analysis members of Elliott Wave Gold were given specific trading advice to either open long positions, or wait patiently. January 2017 was the last major low for this pair.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The (0) is from where the wave count begins.

A large zigzag can be seen complete at the low in March 2015. This is labelled Super Cycle wave (w).

A low now below this point indicates that the larger structure downwards is incomplete. The Elliott wave structure that fits best here is a double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is complete; it is labelled Super Cycle wave (w). The double is now joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, an expanded flat labelled Super Cycle wave (x). Because Super Cycle wave (x) ends just short of the cyan bear market trend line, it looks like it is over there.

Super Cycle wave (y) is most likely now to unfold as a zigzag.

While double zigzags and double combinations are labelled the same, W-X-Y, they are very different structures.

Double zigzags, like single zigzags, normally have a strong counter trend slope. To achieve this their X waves are usually brief and shallow. The second zigzag in the double usually moves reasonably beyond the end of the first zigzag, so that the whole structure has a strong slope.

Double combinations are sideways movements. To achieve a sideways look their X waves are usually deep and can also often be time consuming. The second structure in the double usually ends about the same level as the first, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

Here, Super Cycle wave (x) is relatively shallow. This indicates a double zigzag is most likely unfolding lower.

The bear market trend line may be expected to continue to provide resistance while the bear market for EURUSD remains intact.

WEEKLY CHART

EURUSD Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly chart focuses on the start of Super Cycle wave (y).

A zigzag for Super Cycle wave (y) would subdivide 5-3-5. Cycle wave a would subdivide as a five wave structure at primary degree.

Within cycle wave a, primary wave 1 should last several months. It would most likely be an impulse, and would most likely be incomplete.

Within primary wave 1, intermediate wave (1) looks like an almost complete five wave impulse. So far there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios at minor or minute degree within this wave count.

Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave 4 may be complete, remaining within the blue Elliott channel. If minor wave 4 is not over there and continues sideways or higher, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1.21545.

When intermediate wave (1) could be seen as a complete five wave impulse with a new low, then the invalidation point must move up to its start at 1.25556. A larger correction would then be expected for intermediate wave (2), which may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1).

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 was a single zigzag. Minor wave 4 exhibits alternation as an expanded flat. There is reasonable proportion between these two corrections, giving the wave count the right look at higher time frames.

A target is calculated for the end of minor wave 5, which expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1.17908. This allows for the possibility that minute wave ii may not be over and may move higher.

The target is expected to be met in one or a very few more weeks.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A symmetrical triangle may be unfolding (this is too time consuming to be considered a pennant pattern). Breakouts from symmetrical triangles may be in either direction. During the formation volume is strongest for a downwards day suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards.

If price breaks out of the triangle on a day with support from volume, then expect the next trend to continue for about the same distance from the breakout point as the widest part of the triangle, which is 342 pips.

The prior downwards trend reached very extreme. The symmetrical triangle has allowed extreme conditions to be relieved; there is again room for a trend to develop.

Currently, this market is consolidating. Watch the triangle trend lines carefully for a breakout.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume and On Balance Volume suggest more support for downwards movement than upwards. The next movement out of the symmetrical triangle looks more likely to be downwards.

This analysis is published @ 10:27 p.m. EST.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 13th July, 2018

Last analysis presented a scenario that Bitcoin was most likely in the early stages of a collapse while price stayed below 13,031.04. This still remains the case today.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. At this time, Bitcoin may be beginning a third wave down at five degrees; if it is, then it should start to exhibit a strong increase in downwards momentum.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis will then be used to identify a high in place.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is in a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

What is uncertain is exactly when it will crash. For that question to be answered Elliott wave analysis may be helpful. Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the daily chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at five degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

While price remains below the upper edge of the best fit channel, expect bounces to find resistance there. On the other side of the channel, the lower edge should be breached by the strength of one of the ends of any one of the third waves which are unfolding.

SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also still just possible that the rise for Bitcoin is not over. The last blow off top may have only been the end of a third wave, so a still stronger fifth wave may be yet to come.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 492.80, but this price point is far away for any usefulness. The Forever trend line is now very clearly breached by three full weekly candlesticks below and not touching it. This may be a relatively early indication that this bullish wave count may be wrong. The probability of it is reduced, so it should be discarded.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

Using ADX as a trend indicator, at this time it indicates a very extreme downwards trend, which can continue further. Bitcoin can sustain very extreme trends for very long periods of time.

Published @ 04:37 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2018

Last analysis in March expected upwards movement towards 97.97. Price has thus far continued to move higher, up to 95.02.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A five down may be complete within the new trend.

A three up now looks complete. This may be primary wave A within a flat correction, or primary wave W within a double zigzag or double combination.

A flat correction would require primary wave B to retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 88.93. Within a flat, primary wave B may make a new extreme beyond the start of primary wave A at 88.25.

A double zigzag would expect a relatively brief and shallow correction for primary wave X.

A double combination would expect a relatively deep and possibly time consuming correction for primary wave X.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is published @ 11:02 p.m. EST.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – 17th April, 2018 – Grand Super Cycle

S&P 500 Grand Super Cycle Elliott wave analysis.

Summary: From last analysis two wave counts are published. The main wave count remains valid. The alternate bearish wave count is not invalidated but should be now discarded due to a very low probability.

MAIN WAVE COUNT – BULLISH

YEARLY CHART

S&P 500 historic 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The data prior to the inception of the S&P500 index is an amalgamation of the US stock market back to that date.

There are two approaches to the S&P500 long term analysis: either look only at data since the inception of the S&P500 in 1957, or to include an amalgamation of the entire US stock market before that date as part of the analysis. I have chosen to look at the entire market.

The data I have only goes back to 1871. This bull wave count assumes up to the market peak of 1929 a five wave impulse can be counted. This may have been a Super Cycle wave (I), and the Great Depression a Super Cycle wave (II) correction. If this assumption is wrong, then the bull wave count would not work.

If Super Cycle wave (III) began at the end of the Great Depression in 1933, then it may have ended in 2000. Super Cycle wave (III) would have lasted 67 years and moved price 1,523 points.

Within Super Cycle wave (III), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between cycle waves I, III and V. Cycle wave II is a deep 0.82 zigzag lasting 5 years, and cycle wave IV is a shallow 0.42 zigzag lasting 2 years. There is alternation in depth cycle waves II and IV.

Super Cycle wave (II) lasted only four years (a relatively deep quick zigzag). Super Cycle wave (IV) may be over as a more shallow flat correction, lasting 8.5 years. There is perfect alternation between Super Cycle waves (II) and (IV).

This wave count expects that Super Cycle wave (V) is underway to finally end Grand Super Cycle wave I.

Both Super Cycle waves (I) and (III) look to be extended in this analysis. If this is correct, then Super Cycle wave (V) may not extend.

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This monthly chart shows all of the possible Super Cycle wave (IV) and Super Cycle wave (V) so far.

Super Cycle wave (IV) fits as a regular flat correction, and within it cycle wave b is a 1.03 length of cycle wave a. Cycle wave c exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to cycle wave a, but it does move below the end of cycle wave a avoiding a truncation.

All subdivisions within Super Cycle wave (IV) have a good fit for this wave count. Cycle wave a fits best as a zigzag. Cycle wave b fits best as a zigzag. Cycle wave c fits best as an impulse.

Super Cycle wave (V) may be nearing completion. The Elliott channel will be important. While price remains above the lower edge of the channel, it should be assumed that Super Cycle wave (V) will continue higher. If the channel is breached by downwards movement, that may be an early indication that the upwards wave labelled Super Cycle wave (V) should be over and a new wave down should then be underway. Draw the channel from the ends of cycle waves I to III (note that cycle wave I ends with a truncation), then place a parallel copy on the end of cycle wave II. This channel was only slightly overshot at the end of cycle wave IV, but not breached. This channel has now been held for 9 years.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT – BEARISH

YEARLY

S&P 500 historic bear 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bear wave count expects that the Depression of the 1840’s was a Super Cycle wave (II) and the Great Depression of the 1930’s was its counterpart Super Cycle wave (IV). From an historic perspective both depressions were significant, so this idea makes sense.

The rise since the end of the Great Depression in 1933 would be a Super Cycle wave (V). Which means that a Grand Super Cycle wave I may have ended in 2000.

Within Super Cycle wave (V), the subdivisions are seen in the same way as for the bull wave count. There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios at cycle degree.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II began there, then it would most likely be incomplete. Grand Super Cycle waves should last generations, not just 8.5 years. The first flat correction would most likely be Super Cycle wave (A) of an expanded flat. But it may also be Super Cycle wave (W) of a double flat or combination.

However, this wave count now suffers from a very big problem. If Grand Super Cycle wave II is continuing, then within it Super Cycle wave (B) is now well longer than twice the length of Super Cycle wave (A). At the last all time high in January 2018, Super Cycle wave (B) would have been 2.48 times the length of Super Cycle wave (A).

While there is no Elliott wave rule stating a maximum limit for B waves within flat corrections, they are most commonly between 1 to 1.38 times the length of their A waves. There is a convention within Elliott wave that states when the B wave passes 2 times the length of the A wave, the idea of a flat correction should be discarded based upon a very low probability. For this reason this wave count should now be discarded.

This analysis is published about 5:55 a.m. EST.

This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Stock Market.

Lara’s Weekly Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of S&P500 and Gold and US Oil – 6th April, 2018

Lara’s Weekly is an end of week Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis of the S&P 500, GOLD, and USOIL that focuses on the mid-to-long-term picture. This analysis service is designed for investors and swing traders.

Lara’s Weekly is at this time available to the general public, but in the near future it will be available by subscription only. I will be offering a once only awesome Grandfather rate to the earliest subscribers when Lara’s Weekly is launched as a paid subscription service. To make sure you don’t miss out and not get the Grandfather rate, be notified: click on the Notify Me button below:


Lara's Weekly Masthead

S&P 500

A pullback within an upwards swing was expected, but it arrived a day or so earlier. Price remains above the invalidation point.

Summary: The upwards swing should continue next week. The first target is at 2,705. If price keeps rising through the first target, then the next target is a zone from 2,752 to 2,766.

Always practice good risk management. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here. Video is here.

An alternate idea at the monthly chart level is given here at the end of this analysis.

An historic example of a cycle degree fifth wave is given at the end of the analysis here.

MAIN ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the third waves at all degrees may only subdivide as impulses.

Intermediate wave (4) has breached an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. The channel is redrawn using Elliott’s second technique as if intermediate wave (4) was over at the first swing low within it. If intermediate wave (4) continues sideways, then the channel may be redrawn when it is over. The upper edge may provide resistance for intermediate wave (5).

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 2,193.81. However, it would be extremely likely to remain within the wider teal channel (copied over from the monthly chart) if it were to be reasonably deep. This channel contains the entire bull market since the low in March 2009, with only two small overshoots at the end of cycle wave IV. If this channel is breached, then the idea of cycle wave V continuing higher would be discarded well before the invalidation point is breached.

At this stage, it now looks like intermediate wave (4) may be continuing further sideways as a combination, triangle or flat. These three ideas are separated into separate daily charts. All three ideas would see intermediate wave (4) exhibit alternation in structure with the double zigzag of intermediate wave (2).

A double zigzag would also be possible for intermediate wave (4), but because intermediate wave (2) was a double zigzag this is the least likely structure for intermediate wave (4) to be. Alternation should be expected until price proves otherwise.

DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This first daily chart looks at a triangle structure for intermediate wave (4). The triangle may be either a regular contracting or regular barrier triangle. Within the triangle, minor waves A, B and C may be complete.

If intermediate wave (4) is a regular contracting triangle, the most common type, then minor wave D may not move beyond the end of minor wave B above 2,801.90.

If intermediate wave (4) is a regular barrier triangle, then minor wave D may end about the same level as minor wave B at 2,801.90. As long as the B-D trend line remains essentially flat a triangle will remain valid. In practice, this means the minor wave D can end slightly above 2,801.90 as this rule is subjective.

When a zigzag upwards for minor wave D is complete, then this wave count would expect a final smaller zigzag downwards for minor wave E, which would most likely fall reasonably short of the A-C trend line.

If this all takes a further three weeks to complete, then intermediate wave (4) may total a Fibonacci 13 weeks and would be just two weeks longer in duration than intermediate wave (2). There would be very good proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4), which would give the wave count the right look.

There are now a few overshoots of the 200 day moving average. This is entirely acceptable for this wave count; the overshoots do not mean price must now continue lower. The A-C trend line for this wave count should have a slope, so minor wave C should now be over.

DAILY CHART – COMBINATION

S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Double combinations are very common structures. The first structure in a possible double combination for intermediate wave (4) would be a complete zigzag labelled minor wave W. The double should be joined by a three in the opposite direction labelled minor wave X, which may be a complete zigzag. X waves within combinations are typically very deep; if minor wave X is over at the last high, then it would be a 0.79 length of minor wave W, which is fairly deep giving it a normal look. There is no minimum nor maximum requirement for X waves within combinations.

The second structure in the double would most likely be a flat correction labelled minor wave Y. It may also be a triangle, but in my experience this is very rare, so it will not be expected. The much more common flat for minor wave Y will be charted and expected.

A flat correction would subdivide 3-3-5. Minute wave a must be a three wave structure, most likely a zigzag. It may also be a double zigzag. On the hourly chart, this is now how this downwards movement fits best, and this will now be how it is labelled.

Minute wave b must now reach a minimum 0.90 length of minute wave a. Minute wave b must be a corrective structure. It may be any corrective structure. It may be unfolding as an expanded flat correction. A target is calculated for it to end. Within minuette wave (c), the correction for subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i below 2,553.80.

The purpose of combinations is to take up time and move price sideways. To achieve this purpose the second structure in the double usually ends close to the same level as the first. Minor wave Y would be expected to end about the same level as minor wave W at 2,532.69. This would require a strong overshoot or breach of the 200 day moving average, which looks unlikely.

DAILY CHART – COMBINATION II

S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This is another way to label the combination.

Minor wave W is still a zigzag labelled in the same way, over at the first low within intermediate wave (4).

The double is joined by a quick three in the opposite direction labelled minor wave X, subdividing as a zigzag.

Minor wave Y may have begun earlier and may now be a complete expanded flat correction. However, in order to see minor wave Y complete there is a truncated fifth wave as noted on the chart. This reduces the probability of this wave count.

If intermediate wave (4) is a complete double combination, then minor wave Y has ended somewhat close to the end of minor wave W; the whole structure would have an overall sideways look to it.

A target is calculated for intermediate wave (5). Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1 below 2,553.80.

At the hourly chart level, this wave count would expect a five up continuing. The labelling for the short term would be the same as the hourly chart published above for the first wave count.

DAILY CHART – FLAT

S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Flat corrections are very common. The most common type of flat is an expanded flat. This would see minor wave B move above the start of minor wave A at 2,872.87.

Within a flat correction, minor wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of minor wave A at 2,838.85. The most common length for minor wave B within a flat correction would be 1 to 1.38 times the length of minor wave A at 2,872.87 to 3,002.15. An expanded flat would see minor wave B 1.05 times the length of minor wave A or longer, at 2,889.89 or above.

Minor wave B may be a regular flat correction, and within it minute wave a may have been a single zigzag and minute wave b may have been a double zigzag. This has a very good fit. The subdivisions at the hourly chart level at this stage would be the same for the last wave down as the main wave count.

This wave count would require a very substantial breach of the 200 day moving average for the end of intermediate wave (4). This is possible but may be less likely than a smaller breach.

DAILY CHART – ALTERNATE

S&P 500 Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible still that intermediate wave (4) was complete as a relatively brief and shallow single zigzag.

A new all time high with support from volume and any one of a bullish signal from On Balance Volume or the AD line would see this alternate wave count become the main wave count.

The target for minor wave 3 expects the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 2, there is a truncation as noted on the chart. This must necessarily reduce the probability of this wave count.

Within minor wave 3, minute wave ii may not move beyond the start minute wave i below 2,553.80.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

S&P 500 weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The last completed weekly candlestick has longer upper and lower wicks; it is almost a spinning top. This represents a balance of bulls and bears with the bears slightly winning. A slight increase in volume for downwards movement is only slightly bearish; volume remains lighter than the last two prior downwards movement, so overall volume is declining.

Another downwards week would provide a bearish signal from On Balance Volume. An upwards week would provide a bullish signal. Expect support here until it gives way.

The trend on ADX is extreme because the ADX line is above both directional lines.

DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

So far this week price has found support about the 200 day moving average, with some overshoots. Expect it to continue to show about where price should find support, until it does not.

While there was a small increase in volume for a downwards day on Friday, it is still lighter than two of the three prior upwards days. This supports the main Elliott wave count, which sees a low for Friday.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

VIX daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

There is no new divergence for Friday.

BREADTH – AD LINE

AD Line daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market.

All of small, mid and large caps this week moved lower. None have made new small swing lows, and for all the fall has been even. There is no divergence to indicate underlying weakness.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

Bullish divergence noted in last analysis has been followed by a downwards day. It is considered to have failed.

There is no new divergence for Friday.

DOW THEORY

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 23,360.29.

DJT: 9,806.79.

S&P500: 2,532.69.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67.

At this stage, only DJIA has made a new major swing low. DJT also needs to make a new major swing low for Dow Theory to indicate a switch from a bull market to a bear market. For an extended Dow Theory, which includes the S&P500 and Nasdaq, these two markets also need to make new major swing lows.

Charts showing each prior major swing low used for Dow Theory may be seen at the end of this analysis here.

GOLD

More downwards movement was expected for Friday. The session did begin with a new low, but thereafter a strong bounce completed a green daily candlestick. Members were warned not to expect price to move downwards in a straight line. The bounce remains well below the Elliott wave invalidation point on the hourly chart.

Summary: For Monday look for a bounce to end about 1,338. Thereafter, expect this downwards swing to continue to support, which is at about 1,310 to 1,305. The target is at 1,312, which is now just above the support zone. Do not expect this downwards swing to move in a straight line, because that is not how price behaves within a consolidation.

Only the most experienced of traders should attempt to trade when price is clearly consolidating as it currently is for Gold and GDX. The rest should either hedge or wait for a breakout and trade the next trend. Always use stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last in-depth historic analysis with monthly and several weekly charts is here, video is here.

There are multiple wave counts at this time at the weekly and monthly chart levels. In order to make this analysis manageable and accessible only two will be published on a daily basis, one bullish and one bearish. This does not mean the other possibilities may not be correct, only that publication of them all each day is too much to digest. At this stage, they do not diverge from the two possibilities below.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIRST WEEKLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be a single zigzag. Zigzags subdivide 5-3-5. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure and may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. Overlapping at this stage indicates an ending diagonal.

Within an ending diagonal, all sub-waves must subdivide as zigzags. Intermediate wave (4) must overlap into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This diagonal is expanding: intermediate wave (3) is longer than intermediate wave (1) and intermediate wave (4) is longer than intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (5) must be longer than intermediate wave (3), so it must end above 1,398.41 where it would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Within the final zigzag of intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,236.54.

Within the diagonal of primary wave C, each sub-wave is extending in price and so may also do so in time. Within each zigzag, minor wave B may exhibit alternation in structure and may show an increased duration.

Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave B was a triangle lasting 11 days. Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave B was a regular flat lasting 60 days. Within intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may last as long as 40 to 60 days. So far it has lasted 51 days (refer to daily chart) and the structure is incomplete.

At this stage, minor wave B may now be a combination or triangle. These two ideas are separated out in daily and hourly charts below.

This first weekly chart sees the upwards wave labelled primary wave A as a five wave structure. It must be acknowledged that this upwards wave looks better as a three than it does as a five. The fifth weekly chart below will consider the possibility that it was a three.

FIRST DAILY CHART – COMBINATION

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B may be a double combination. Double combinations are very common structures. The first structure in the double may have been a regular flat correction labelled minute wave w.

The double is joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled minute wave x.

The second structure in the double may be a zigzag labelled minute wave y. It would most likely end about the same level as minute wave w, at about 1,303.08, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways. That is the purpose of double combinations. The target would see minute wave y end somewhat above minute wave w and give the combination a typical sideways look.

Minute wave y as a zigzag now looks like an obvious three wave structure at the daily chart level.

When minute wave y is a complete zigzag, then the probability of the combination being over would be very high. While double combinations are very common structures, triples are extremely rare.

While minute wave y may also be a flat correction, in my experience double flats are fairly rare.

Minute wave y may also be a triangle but the expected pathway at this stage would be the same as the triangle wave count below, so it will not be separated out. A triangle within a combination is also in my experience uncommon.

SECOND DAILY CHART – TRIANGLE

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This alternate daily chart is identical to the first daily chart up to the high labelled minor wave A. Thereafter, it looks at a different structure for minor wave B.

Minor wave B may be an incomplete triangle, and within it minute wave a may have been a double zigzag. All remaining triangle sub-waves must be simple A-B-C structures, and three of the four remaining sub-waves must be simple zigzags. One remaining sub-wave may be a flat correction.

Minute wave b may be a complete single zigzag. Minute wave c downwards must now complete as a simple correction, very likely a zigzag. Minute wave c of the triangle may not move beyond the end of minute wave a below 1,303.08.

This alternate wave count expects weeks of choppy overlapping movement in an ever decreasing range.

Triangles normally adhere very well to their trend lines. The triangle trend lines are commonly tested within the triangle sub-waves. Minuette wave (b) within minute wave b may have found support at the a-c trend line, and this indicates where minute wave c may end.

Minute wave d of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the end of minute wave b above 1,356.12. Minute wave d of a barrier triangle should end about the same level as minute wave b; the triangle will remain valid as long as the b-d trend line remains essentially flat. In practice, this means minute wave d can end slightly above 1,356.12. This invalidation point is not black and white; it involves an area of subjectivity.

Contracting triangles are the most common type. Barrier triangles are not common, but nor are they rare.

A separate hourly chart will not be published today for this wave count because it would now be exactly the same as the first wave count. Both wave counts expect a zigzag is unfolding lower.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIFTH WEEKLY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

There were five weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. This fifth weekly chart is the most immediately bearish wave count, so this is published as a bearish possibility.

This fifth weekly chart sees cycle wave b as a flat correction, and within it intermediate wave (B) may be a complete triple zigzag. This would indicate a regular flat as intermediate wave (B) is less than 1.05 the length of intermediate wave (A).

If cycle wave b is a flat correction, then within it primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 1,079.13 or below. The most common length of B waves within flats is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of the A wave. The target calculated would see primary wave B end within this range.

I have only seen two triple zigzags before during my 10 years of daily Elliott wave analysis. If this wave count turns out to be correct, this would be the third. The rarity of this structure is identified on the chart.

FIFTH DAILY CHART

Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 1 may have been a relatively brief impulse over at the low of the 8th of February. Thereafter, minor wave 2 may be an incomplete double combination.

The first structure in the double may be a zigzag labelled minute wave w. The double may be joined by a three in the opposite direction, a zigzag labelled minute wave x. The second structure in the double may be an incomplete triangle labelled minute wave y. This structure may yet take some weeks to complete. In my experience a double combination with a triangle for minute wave y is not very common. This reduces the probability of this wave count, but it remains valid.

This wave count is a good solution for this bearish wave count. All subdivisions fit and there are no rare structures.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Gold Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Gold is within a small consolidation with resistance about 1,365 to (final) 1,375 and strong support about 1,310 to 1,305. Volume suggests an upwards breakout is more likely than downwards.

The bullish signal this week from On Balance Volume is weak because the purple line, which has been breached, has a reasonable slope and was only tested twice prior.

DAILY CHART

Gold Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Gold is within a smaller consolidation that began back on about the 3rd of January. This consolidation is delineated by resistance about 1,360 to 1,365 and support about 1,310 to 1,305. It is the upwards day of the 15th of January that has strongest volume during this consolidation. This suggests an upwards breakout may be more likely than downwards.

For the short term, a long lower wick and support from volume for Friday suggest an upwards day on Monday.

A new small range is drawn on On Balance Volume, but it does not yet have reasonable technical significance and a signal here would be weak only. The next trend lines to be reached offer some more significance.

GDX WEEKLY CHART

GDX Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

The last week closes with the balance of volume upwards, and it shows a decline. This is contradicted by a bullish signal from On Balance Volume this week as it bounces up off support.

GDX DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

GDX is range bound at both weekly and daily time frames. The smaller consolidation here has resistance now about 22.50 and support about 21.30 and 20.90.

On Balance Volume is also constrained.

A symmetrical triangle may be forming. A breakout would require a close above resistance or below support, preferably with support from volume. A target for the next trend may be calculated after a breakout.

The very short term volume profile remains bullish.

US OIL

Downwards movement continued this week exactly as expected.

Summary: The target for a new low remains at 13.39. A new low on the way down, below 55.24, would add substantial confidence in a bearish outlook. At least for the short term classic technical analysis expects downwards movement for another week or so.

A new high above 66.65 would substantially reduce the probability of the bearish wave count and increase the probability of a huge new bull market for Oil, which would have final confidence above 74.96.

Always practice good risk management as the most important aspect of trading. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. Failure to manage risk is the most common mistake new traders make.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

There is alternation in depth with primary wave 2 very deep and primary wave 4 relatively shallow. There is inadequate alternation in structure, both are zigzags. So far primary wave 4 has lasted 23 months. At this stage, there is almost perfect proportion between primary waves 2 and 4.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

The wider Elliott channel (teal) about this whole movement may offer support to primary wave 5.

WEEKLY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 4 subdivides as a zigzag, and for this wave count it should now be complete. There is almost no room for it to move into. If primary wave 5 were to only reach equality in length with primary wave 3, it would end with a small truncation. A target for primary wave 5 may best be calculated at intermediate degree. That can only be done when intermediate waves (1) through to (4) within primary wave 5 are complete.

For now a target will be calculated at primary degree using a ratio between primary waves 3 and 5. This target only has a small probability. This target will be recalculated as primary wave 5 nears its end, so it may change.

An Elliott channel is added to this possible zigzag for primary wave 4. A breach of the lower edge of this channel would provide a very strong indication that primary wave 4 should be over and primary wave 5 should be underway. Look out for some support on the way down, perhaps a short term bounce about the lower edge of the channel.

DAILY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 1 will subdivide as a complete impulse at lower time frames.

Minor wave 2 should now be a complete structure. It subdivides well as a double zigzag.

A target is calculated for minor wave 3 which expects the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1. If price reaches down to this target and the structure is incomplete or price keeps falling through it, then the next Fibonacci ratio in the sequence of 2.618 would be used to calculate a new target.

Within minor wave 3, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 66.54.

There may now be two overlapping first and second waves complete within minute wave i. This expects to see an increase in downwards momentum next week.

A new low below 55.24 would invalidate the bullish alternate below and provide reasonable confidence in this main wave count.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that the bear market for Oil is over and a new bull market is in the very early stages.

A huge zigzag down to the last low may be complete and is labelled here Super Cycle wave (II).

Cycle wave b must be seen as complete in August 2013 for this wave count to work. It cannot be seen as complete at the prior major swing high in May 2011.

Cycle wave b is seen as a zigzag, and within it primary wave B is seen as a running contracting triangle. These are fairly common structures, although nine wave triangles are uncommon. All subdivisions fit.

Primary wave C moves beyond the end of primary wave A, so it avoids a truncation. But it does not have to move above the price territory of primary wave B to avoid a truncation, which is an important distinction.

If cycle wave b begins there, then cycle wave c may be seen as a complete five wave impulse.

Super Cycle wave (III) must move beyond the end of Super Cycle wave (I). It must move far enough above that point to allow room for a subsequent Super Cycle wave (IV) to unfold and remain above Super Cycle wave (I) price territory.

WEEKLY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If a new bull market is in the very early stages for Oil, then it may have begun with two overlapping first and second waves at primary then at intermediate degree.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse, and within it intermediate wave (3) may be complete.

Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory below 55.24. Intermediate wave (4) would most likely be incomplete. It may continue further sideways or lower.

Intermediate wave (2) is labelled as a double zigzag. To exhibit alternation intermediate wave (4) may most likely be a flat, combination or triangle. Intermediate wave (2) lasted 17 weeks. For good proportion and the right look, intermediate wave (4) may last a Fibonacci 13 or even 21 weeks in total. So far it has lasted only ten weeks.

DAILY CHART

US Oil Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It would be unlikely that intermediate wave (4) would be over a the last low labelled minor wave A. That would be too brief.

If intermediate wave (4) is continuing, then it may be as a flat correction. If minor wave B is now over at 0.99 the length of minor wave A, then intermediate wave (4) may be a regular flat correction. Regular flats normally fit nicely into trend channels. The most likely Fibonacci ratio for minor wave C would be equality in length with minor wave A.

Minor wave C downwards must be a five wave structure.

Within minor wave C, two overlapping first and second waves may now be complete. This wave count also expects to see some increase in downwards momentum next week as the middle of a third wave down unfolds. Within the middle of the third wave, no second wave correction may move beyond its start above 64.12.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Oil Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The strongest recent monthly volume is for the downwards month of August 2017. This is bearish.

For the last three months all now complete, the volume profile is bullish.

This chart is overwhelmingly bullish. It supports the alternate Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

US Oil Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Oil is at support here about 61.85. The strong bearish candlestick for Friday along with support from volume indicates more downwards movement next week. This supports the short term expectation for both Elliott wave counts.

Watch On Balance Volume carefully next week. A breakout from the new small range would provide a signal.

Oil and $OVX Volatility Index currently have a positive correlation. There is a view within the trading community that they should have a negative correlation, and that any divergence may be a signal. At this time, that relationship is absent and $OVX is not providing signals, so it will not be used in this analysis at this time.