Category Archives: Public Analysis

XOP-SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Prodtn ETF: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 31st October, 2018

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

XOP Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A very large expanded flat may have ended at the last low. This is labelled cycle wave II.

Within cycle wave II, primary wave B is within the normal range of up to 1.38 times the length of primary wave A. Primary wave C moves below the end of primary wave A avoiding a truncation and a rare running flat.

If this part of the wave count is correctly labelled, then the bear market may be over for XOP. A three wave structure moving lower indicates the larger trend may be upwards.

The alternate idea would be that this expanded flat may be only wave W of a double flat or combination; the correction would continue sideways for a few more years.

WEEKLY CHART

XOP Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

From the end of cycle wave II, a five up may have completed. This is labelled primary wave 1.

Primary wave 2 may be an incomplete regular flat correction. Regular flats usually have C waves that end slightly beyond the end of their A waves.

Intermediate wave (C) must subdivide as a five wave structure. So far minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse. Strong downwards movement last week fits expectations for a third wave.

Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 22.06.

DAILY CHART

XOP Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 3 exhibits strength. It looks like a third wave.

Within minor wave 3, minute wave i and ii may be complete.

Within minute wave iii, minuette waves (i), (ii) and now (iii) may be complete. Minuette wave (iv) may not move into minuette wave (i) price territory above 40.26.

Overall, this wave count expects more downwards movement to at least slightly below 28.96. This target may be met in another few months.

Along the way down, another consolidation to last about one to two months for minor wave 4 may be expected. When it arrives, minor wave 4 may not move into minor wave 1 price territory.

Draw an acceleration channel about downwards movement. Draw the first trend line from the low labelled minor wave 1 to the last low, then place a parallel copy up on the high labelled minor wave 2. As price keeps moving lower, keep redrawing the channel. When minor wave 3 is complete, then the upper edge of this channel may provide resistance for minor wave 4.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

XOP Technical Analysis Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Price consolidated, with support about 39.65 and resistance about 45.00, from the 7th of May 2018 to the 22nd of October 2018.

Price broke out from the consolidation zone on the 22nd of October on a strong downwards day. The following day gapped lower on another strong downwards day with support from volume, creating a breakaway gap. This looks like a classic downwards breakout.

If price bounces up here to test resistance, then expect strong resistance at the breakaway gap at 39.10.

Currently RSI is oversold and there is a bullish candlestick pattern. Expect a small bounce or consolidation here.

The target is about 32.99.

Published @ 02:37 a.m. EST.


Careful risk management protects your trading account(s).
Follow my two Golden Rules:

1. Always trade with stops.

2. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

BTCUSD: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 17th October, 2018

Bitcoin continues to move sideways and remains range bound.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. Now that a backtest about the support line is complete, price may be expected to continue to move downwards from this line.

At this time, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a third wave down at six degrees.

A new alternate Elliott wave count is published today which allows for a large bounce here before a continuation of downwards movement to new lows.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis was used to identify a high in place on the 23rd of December, 2017.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the weekly chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at six degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

The best fit channel has only weak technical significance and is now breached.

The Forever trend line is not perfectly showing where price found support and has then found resistance for a typical back test. However, it is about where price found support and resistance. The breach and back test are highly significant.

I have searched to find if a five down could be seen as complete. At this time, I cannot yet see either a complete impulse or a leading diagonal.

SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also possible that Bitcoin may move lower as a flat correction, double combination or a double zigzag.

Within a flat correction, cycle wave a may have completed as a zigzag. Cycle wave b would need to move higher to retrace a minimum 0.9 length of cycle wave a at 18,480. Cycle wave b would need to subdivide as a corrective structure, most likely a zigzag. Cycle wave b within a flat correction may make a new price extreme beyond the start of cycle wave a.

Within a double zigzag, cycle wave w may be the first zigzag complete. Cycle wave x would have no minimum nor maximum required length to cycle wave w; it only needs to complete as a corrective structure, which would most likely be a zigzag. X waves within double zigzags are usually shallow, so that the whole structure has a strong slope.

Within a double combination, cycle wave w may be the first complete structure as a zigzag. Cycle wave x would have no minimum nor maximum required length to cycle wave w; it only needs to complete as a corrective structure, which would most likely be a zigzag. X waves within combinations are usually deep, so that the whole structure has a sideways look. Cycle wave x within a combination may make a new price extreme beyond the start of cycle wave w.

A second wave may not subdivide as a triangle with its sole corrective structure, so a triangle for this correction is not considered.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The daily chart focusses on the whole of cycle wave b or x so far.

Cycle wave b or x may be unfolding as a regular flat correction, and within it primary wave A fits as a three and primary wave B also fits as a corrective structure. Primary wave B effects a net 0.965 re-tracement of primary wave A at its end. This meets the minimum requirement of 0.9 for B waves within flat corrections.

A target is calculated for primary wave C to end. However, because Bitcoin does not exhibit reliable Fibonacci ratios this target is a rough guideline only. A better guide may be resistance about the orange forever trend line.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

The following can be noted when looking back at Bitcoin’s behaviour during its previous strong falls in price:

The 94% fall in price from June to November 2011 was characterised by:

– Three clearly separate instances of RSI reaching oversold on the daily chart, separated by bounces.

– ADX did not remain very extreme for very long at all on the daily chart.

– On Balance Volume exhibited weak single bullish divergence at the low.

The 93% fall in price from November 2013 to February 2014 was characterised by:

– RSI reached oversold and remained deeply oversold for three weeks; at the low there was only single weak bullish divergence with price.

– ADX remained very extreme for the last seven sessions to the low.

– At the low, On Balance Volume did not exhibit bullish divergence with price; it remained bearish and then exhibited further bearishness after the low as it continued to decline as price began to rise.

For the current fall in price, the current Elliott wave count expects the fall to be larger in terms of duration than the previous two noted here, and at least equivalent in terms of price movement in that a fall of over 90% is expected now. Currently, ADX is not yet extreme and RSI is not yet oversold. There is plenty of room for this downwards trend in Bitcoin to continue. So far at the lowest low from the all time high Bitcoin has only retraced 0.70. While this is deep, its corrections are usually deeper than this.

On Balance Volume and price remain range bound. Price has resistance about 7,775 and support about 5,890. Watch both closely to see a breakout.

Published @ 03:21 p.m. EST.

GDX: Elliott Wave Analysis | Charts – 25th September, 2018

Last Elliott wave analysis of GDX was almost a year ago.

Summary: The situation is now somewhat clearer after a strong breakout from a very long consolidation. Only one Elliott wave count is now published for GDX.

It is my opinion based upon experience that this market does not have sufficient volume for reliable Elliott wave analysis, which is why I do not provide it on a regular basis. Classic technical analysis would be a better approach for this market, which is why I provide it daily to members.

For members who are interested in an Elliott wave count of GDX, I am providing it here. This analysis should be used only as a general guide. For a more reliable guide see the daily GDX technical analysis provided at the end of each Gold analysis.

MONTHLY CHART

GDX Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

From September 2011 to January 2016 this downwards wave fits best as a five wave impulse. The downwards five is labelled Super Cycle wave (a). If this downwards wave is a five, then it should be followed by a three up and then another five down.

The following three up labelled Super Cycle wave (b) would most likely be incomplete, and it would likely last longer to have better proportion to Super Cycle wave (a).

Super Cycle wave (b) would most likely subdivide as a zigzag, although it may also be a flat, triangle or combination. None of the more than 23 possible corrective structures can be eliminated because it is not possible to have full confidence on the structure of cycle wave a within it.

If cycle wave a is a five wave structure (which it fits best as), then Super Cycle wave (b) would be indicated as unfolding as a zigzag. Within the zigzag, cycle wave b may not move beyond the start of cycle wave a below 12.40.

If cycle wave a is a three wave structure (a zigzag), then Super Cycle wave (b) may be any one of a flat, triangle or combination. Within an expanded flat, running triangle or combination, wave b (or x) may move beyond the start of wave a (or w) below 12.40.

The weekly chart below looks at the structure of Super Cycle wave (b) so far.

WEEKLY CHART

GDX Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If cycle wave a is an impulse, then cycle wave b may not move beyond its start below 12.40.

If price makes a new low below 12.40, then cycle wave a would need to be relabelled as a zigzag.

Cycle wave b looks best as an incomplete zigzag. The last strong downwards wave looks like a third wave, which is labelled intermediate wave (3).

The structure of primary wave B is very difficult to analyse. Although it looks like a triangle, and a triangle will fit, a triangle looks wrong. The trend lines would either not converge or would not be adhered to.

After considering several different possible structures the only one which has a good fit is a very rare triple combination.

Primary wave C must complete as a five wave impulse. So far intermediate waves (1), (2) and (3) may now be complete. Intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (2) price territory above 20.83.

DAILY CHART

GDX Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Intermediate wave (4) would most likely subdivide as a zigzag or zigzag multiple to exhibit alternation with the combination of intermediate wave (2).

Intermediate wave (4) may end close to the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio to exhibit alternation in depth with intermediate wave (2).

So far minor wave A looks like it may be a complete five wave impulse. If that piece of this wave count is correct, then minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 17.28.

Minor wave B may move sideways for several sessions, or it could be a quick sharp pullback over in just a few days. There are multiple structural options for minor wave B; B waves exhibit the greatest variety in structure and price behaviour.

When minor wave B is a complete corrective structure, then minor wave C would be most likely to make at least a slight new high above the end of minor wave A at 19.11 to avoid a truncation. Minor wave C may end only slightly above the end of minor wave A at 19.25 to see intermediate wave (4) end about the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio.

Published @ 04:36 a.m. EST.

BTCUSD: Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis | Charts – 19th September, 2018

Bitcoin continues to move mostly sideways, with a slight downwards bias.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. Now that a backtest about the support line is complete, price may be expected to continue to move downwards from this line.

At this time, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a third wave down at four degrees.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis was used to identify a high in place on the 23rd of December, 2017.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the weekly chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at five degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

The best fit channel has only weak technical significance.

The Forever trend line is not perfectly showing where price found support and has then found resistance for a typical back test. However, it is about where price found support and resistance. The breach and back test are highly significant.

My alternate bullish wave count was discarded because the Forever trend line is properly breached and now has a successful backtest.

I have again searched to find if a five down could be seen as complete. At this time, I cannot yet see either a complete impulse or a leading diagonal.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

The following can be noted when looking back at Bitcoin’s behaviour during its previous strong falls in price:

The 94% fall in price from June to November 2011 was characterised by:

– Three clearly separate instances of RSI reaching oversold on the daily chart, separated by bounces.

– ADX did not remain very extreme for very long at all on the daily chart.

– On Balance Volume exhibited weak single bullish divergence at the low.

The 93% fall in price from November 2013 to February 2014 was characterised by:

– RSI reached oversold and remained deeply oversold for three weeks; at the low there was only single weak bullish divergence with price.

– ADX remained very extreme for the last seven sessions to the low.

– At the low, On Balance Volume did not exhibit bullish divergence with price; it remained bearish and then exhibited further bearishness after the low as it continued to decline as price began to rise.

For the current fall in price, the current Elliott wave count expects the fall to be larger in terms of duration than the previous two noted here, and at least equivalent in terms of price movement in that a fall of over 90% is expected now. Currently, ADX is not yet extreme and RSI is not yet oversold. There is plenty of room for this downwards trend in Bitcoin to continue.

Watch On Balance Volume carefully over the next couple of weeks or so. If it breaks out of the current range before price does, then it may signal the breakout direction for price. Both price and On Balance Volume are currently range bound.

Published @ 05:25 a.m. EST.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 31st August, 2018

Last Elliott wave analysis of this pair (July 2018) expected more downwards movement, which is what has occurred.

Summary: It looks most likely that price may overall rise to about 1.20761 over the next three to eight months. Within the expected rise, there may be a sharp pullback or time consuming sideways consolidation for a B wave.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The (0) is from where the wave count begins.

A large zigzag can be seen complete at the low in March 2015. This is labelled Super Cycle wave (w).

A low now below this point indicates that the larger structure downwards is incomplete. The Elliott wave structure that fits best here is a double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is complete; it is labelled Super Cycle wave (w). The double is now joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, an expanded flat labelled Super Cycle wave (x). Because Super Cycle wave (x) ends just short of the cyan bear market trend line, it looks like it is over there.

Super Cycle wave (y) is most likely now to unfold as a zigzag.

While double zigzags and double combinations are labelled the same, W-X-Y, they are very different structures.

Double zigzags, like single zigzags, normally have a strong counter trend slope. To achieve this their X waves are usually brief and shallow. The second zigzag in the double usually moves reasonably beyond the end of the first zigzag, so that the whole structure has a strong slope.

Double combinations are sideways movements. To achieve a sideways look their X waves are usually deep and can also often be time consuming. The second structure in the double usually ends about the same level as the first, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

Here, Super Cycle wave (x) is relatively shallow. This indicates a double zigzag is most likely unfolding lower.

The bear market trend line may be expected to continue to provide resistance while the bear market for EURUSD remains intact.

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart focusses on the start of Super Cycle wave (y).

A new wave down at Super Cycle degree should begin with a five down. At this stage, that looks to be complete; it is labelled as primary wave 1.

Following a five down, a three up should develop. This is labelled primary wave 2.

Primary wave 1 lasted six months. Primary wave 2 may be expected to last from at least a Fibonacci three months up to a more likely Fibonacci five or eight months. Primary wave 2 must subdivide as a corrective structure. It would most likely end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of primary wave 1, but it could be deeper than that.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The symmetrical triangle noted in last analysis completed and saw a breakout to the downside. At that stage, a target using the measured rule would have been about 1.1278. Price fell short of this target by only 24 pips before turning.

Currently, price has reached resistance and Stochastics is overbought. However, Stochastics may remain overbought for some time. Not until it exhibits bearish divergence with price would a strong warning of a high in place be seen.

It looks like a new upwards trend may be developing. Look for next resistance about 1.187.

Overall, this analysis supports the Elliott wave count.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

For the short term, volume supports upwards movement. On Balance Volume is very bullish. More upwards movement should be expected.

This analysis is published @ 04:56 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 21st August, 2018

Last analysis expected a little more upwards movement at the daily chart level to complete primary wave A. This is what has happened.

Summary: A pullback here or a time consuming sideways consolidation may develop for primary wave B. Thereafter, the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

For the USD Index, historically the first second wave correction within a new trend is usually extremely deep, about 0.80 to 0.90 of the first wave it corrects. It would be typical here to see Cycle wave II reach to 0.80 or deeper of cycle wave I.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

Primary wave A may now be a completed five wave impulse. Primary wave B may now begin.

Primary wave B may last anywhere from a Fibonacci 13 up to a Fibonacci 55 weeks. It may be either a relatively quick sharp pullback as a zigzag, or a more time consuming large sideways consolidation as a flat, combination or triangle.

When primary wave B is complete, then the upwards trend may resume for primary wave C, which may end reasonably close to 103.82 but not above this point.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave A fits very well as a complete five wave impulse.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that would provide confidence that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may have begun.

Primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A below 88.25.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Last analysis noted the consolidation with resistance in a zone about 95 to 95.45. Price broke above resistance, and now downwards movement may be a backtest of support at prior resistance.

If support holds here, then expect price to bounce up and move higher.

Published @ 01:23 a.m. EST.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 13th August, 2018

Bitcoin has moved sideways since last analysis.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. Now that a backtest about the support line is complete, price may be expected to continue to move downwards from this line.

At this time, Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a third wave down at four degrees.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis was used to identify a high in place on the 23rd of December, 2017.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the weekly chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at four degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

The best fit channel was not perfectly showing where bounces found resistance, so it has been adjusted. This channel has only weak technical significance.

The Forever trend line is not perfectly showing where price found support and has then found resistance for a typical back test. However, it is about where price found support and resistance. The breach and back test are highly significant.

My alternate bullish wave count is now discarded because the Forever trend line is properly breached and now has a successful backtest.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

The following can be noted when looking back at Bitcoin’s behaviour during its previous strong falls in price:

The 94% fall in price from June to November 2011 was characterised by:

– Three clearly separate instances of RSI reaching oversold on the daily chart, separated by bounces.

– ADX did not remain very extreme for very long at all on the daily chart.

– On Balance Volume exhibited weak single bullish divergence at the low.

The 93% fall in price from November 2013 to February 2014 was characterised by:

– RSI reached oversold and remained deeply oversold for three weeks; at the low there was only single weak bullish divergence with price.

– ADX remained very extreme for the last seven sessions to the low.

– At the low, On Balance Volume did not exhibit bullish divergence with price; it remained bearish and then exhibited further bearishness after the low as it continued to decline as price began to rise.

For the current fall in price, the current Elliott wave count expects the fall to be larger in terms of duration than the previous two noted here, and at least equivalent in terms of price movement in that a fall of over 90% is expected now. Currently, ADX is not yet extreme and RSI is not yet oversold. There is plenty of room for this downwards trend in Bitcoin to continue.

Published @ 11:11 p.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 3rd August, 2018

Last analysis on the 10th of June expected a deep correction for a B wave. Price has mostly moved sideways, and has now formed a fairly well defined consolidation zone. A correction has developed, but at this stage it is not deep.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The wave count begins at 0.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave I downwards fits very well as a five wave impulse. This may be reasonably expected to be followed by a three wave structure upwards.

So far upwards movement has developed a little more since last analysis. This now looks like an almost complete five up.

If cycle wave II is beginning with a five up, then it may be unfolding as a zigzag, which is the most common type of corrective structure.

When primary wave A is a completed five wave impulse, then primary wave B should begin.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

So far primary wave A fits very well as an almost complete five wave impulse.

There is excellent alternation between the double flat correction of intermediate wave (2) and the triangle of intermediate wave (4). There is no adequate Fibonacci ratio between intermediate waves (1) and (3).

Within intermediate wave (3), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between minor waves 1, 3 and 5.

So far primary wave A remains contained within a channel. When price breaks out of the lower edge of the channel, then that may be an indication that primary wave A is complete and primary wave B may then have begun.

While primary wave A looks incomplete, intermediate wave (4) may not move into intermediate wave (1) price territory.

When primary wave A could be complete, then the following correction for primary wave B may not move beyond the start of primary wave A.

Primary wave B may be any one of more than 23 possible corrective structures. It may be choppy and overlapping as a combination, flat or triangle, or it may be a more brief sharp pullback as a zigzag. It may be expected to last anywhere from about 4 to 8 months.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is consolidating with resistance in a zone about 95.00 to 95.45 and support in a zone about 93.45 to about 92.85. Unfortunately, neither StockCharts nor BarChart provide volume data for the USD Index. If they did, then the direction of the day with strongest volume would be an indicator of the most likely breakout direction from the consolidation.

Published @ 08:53 p.m. EST on 4th August, 2018.

EURUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 23rd July, 2018

Last analysis of this pair was in January 2017. In that analysis members of Elliott Wave Gold were given specific trading advice to either open long positions, or wait patiently. January 2017 was the last major low for this pair.

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

EURUSD Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The (0) is from where the wave count begins.

A large zigzag can be seen complete at the low in March 2015. This is labelled Super Cycle wave (w).

A low now below this point indicates that the larger structure downwards is incomplete. The Elliott wave structure that fits best here is a double zigzag.

The first zigzag in the double is complete; it is labelled Super Cycle wave (w). The double is now joined by a complete three in the opposite direction, an expanded flat labelled Super Cycle wave (x). Because Super Cycle wave (x) ends just short of the cyan bear market trend line, it looks like it is over there.

Super Cycle wave (y) is most likely now to unfold as a zigzag.

While double zigzags and double combinations are labelled the same, W-X-Y, they are very different structures.

Double zigzags, like single zigzags, normally have a strong counter trend slope. To achieve this their X waves are usually brief and shallow. The second zigzag in the double usually moves reasonably beyond the end of the first zigzag, so that the whole structure has a strong slope.

Double combinations are sideways movements. To achieve a sideways look their X waves are usually deep and can also often be time consuming. The second structure in the double usually ends about the same level as the first, so that the whole structure takes up time and moves price sideways.

Here, Super Cycle wave (x) is relatively shallow. This indicates a double zigzag is most likely unfolding lower.

The bear market trend line may be expected to continue to provide resistance while the bear market for EURUSD remains intact.

WEEKLY CHART

EURUSD Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This weekly chart focuses on the start of Super Cycle wave (y).

A zigzag for Super Cycle wave (y) would subdivide 5-3-5. Cycle wave a would subdivide as a five wave structure at primary degree.

Within cycle wave a, primary wave 1 should last several months. It would most likely be an impulse, and would most likely be incomplete.

Within primary wave 1, intermediate wave (1) looks like an almost complete five wave impulse. So far there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios at minor or minute degree within this wave count.

Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave 4 may be complete, remaining within the blue Elliott channel. If minor wave 4 is not over there and continues sideways or higher, then it may not move into minor wave 1 price territory above 1.21545.

When intermediate wave (1) could be seen as a complete five wave impulse with a new low, then the invalidation point must move up to its start at 1.25556. A larger correction would then be expected for intermediate wave (2), which may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1).

DAILY CHART

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 2 was a single zigzag. Minor wave 4 exhibits alternation as an expanded flat. There is reasonable proportion between these two corrections, giving the wave count the right look at higher time frames.

A target is calculated for the end of minor wave 5, which expects it to exhibit the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave 1.

Within minor wave 5, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 1.17908. This allows for the possibility that minute wave ii may not be over and may move higher.

The target is expected to be met in one or a very few more weeks.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A symmetrical triangle may be unfolding (this is too time consuming to be considered a pennant pattern). Breakouts from symmetrical triangles may be in either direction. During the formation volume is strongest for a downwards day suggesting a downwards breakout may be more likely than upwards.

If price breaks out of the triangle on a day with support from volume, then expect the next trend to continue for about the same distance from the breakout point as the widest part of the triangle, which is 342 pips.

The prior downwards trend reached very extreme. The symmetrical triangle has allowed extreme conditions to be relieved; there is again room for a trend to develop.

Currently, this market is consolidating. Watch the triangle trend lines carefully for a breakout.

VOLUME ANALYSIS

EURUSD Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume and On Balance Volume suggest more support for downwards movement than upwards. The next movement out of the symmetrical triangle looks more likely to be downwards.

This analysis is published @ 10:27 p.m. EST.

BTCUSD Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 13th July, 2018

Last analysis presented a scenario that Bitcoin was most likely in the early stages of a collapse while price stayed below 13,031.04. This still remains the case today.

Summary: A clear breach of a support line, which has seen all price action above it until this point, is a strong indication that Bitcoin is bearish. At this time, Bitcoin may be beginning a third wave down at five degrees; if it is, then it should start to exhibit a strong increase in downwards momentum.

The data used for this analysis now comes from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

Updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last analysis may be found here.

FIRST ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY

Bitcoin Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see a completed five wave impulse upwards for Bitcoin.

I am unable to find reasonable Fibonacci ratios within this wave count. It appears that Bitcoin may not exhibit Fibonacci ratios very often between its waves, so this makes target calculation impossible. Classic technical analysis will then be used to identify a high in place.

What is very clear from this chart is that Bitcoin is in a classic bubble. This looks like an even larger bubble than the Tulip Mania. The only thing about which I am certain is that this bubble will pop and Bitcoin will collapse.

What is uncertain is exactly when it will crash. For that question to be answered Elliott wave analysis may be helpful. Now that the Forever trend line is breached some confidence may be had that Bitcoin may be crashing.

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Bitcoin tends to behave like an extreme commodity: price moves upwards for about 2 – 4 weeks in a near vertical movement at the end of its rises. Following this vertical movement the resulting downwards movement is very deep (in percentage terms) and often very quick.

The next rise begins slowly with basing action over weeks or months, and then as the rise nears its end another vertical movement completes it. Also, there are volume spikes just before or at the end, which is another feature typical of commodity like behaviour.

This has happened now several times. The most notable instances are the rise up to the week ending 24th November, 2013, and the week ending 5th June, 2011. The following sharp drops were 94% and 93% respectively.

If this current drop continues like the last two examples, then a reasonable target may be about $1,390.94 or below.

DAILY

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

If Bitcoin is in the early stages of a huge crash, then a five down structure should develop at the daily chart level. This would still be incomplete.

A third wave down may now be beginning at five degrees. Bitcoin may be still winding up for a spectacular plummet in price. The strongest fall may come towards the end of any one or more of these third waves as Bitcoin exhibits commodity like behaviour. Commodities tend to have their strongest portion of impulses in the fifth waves.

While price remains below the upper edge of the best fit channel, expect bounces to find resistance there. On the other side of the channel, the lower edge should be breached by the strength of one of the ends of any one of the third waves which are unfolding.

SECOND ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY

Bitcoin weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

It is also still just possible that the rise for Bitcoin is not over. The last blow off top may have only been the end of a third wave, so a still stronger fifth wave may be yet to come.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory below 492.80, but this price point is far away for any usefulness. The Forever trend line is now very clearly breached by three full weekly candlesticks below and not touching it. This may be a relatively early indication that this bullish wave count may be wrong. The probability of it is reduced, so it should be discarded.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Volume is declining (at higher time frames); this market is falling mostly of its own weight. However, looking more closely, daily volume is stronger for downwards days than for upwards days.

Using ADX as a trend indicator, at this time it indicates a very extreme downwards trend, which can continue further. Bitcoin can sustain very extreme trends for very long periods of time.

Published @ 04:37 a.m. EST.

USD Index – Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis – 10th June, 2018

Last analysis in March expected upwards movement towards 97.97. Price has thus far continued to move higher, up to 95.02.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A huge double zigzag may be continuing lower.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Downwards movement from the high in January 2017 cannot be a fourth wave correction within an ongoing impulse higher because a new low below 89.62 would be back in first wave price territory.

That indicates the last big wave up may be a completed three, and for that reason this is my main wave count.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A five down may be complete within the new trend.

A three up now looks complete. This may be primary wave A within a flat correction, or primary wave W within a double zigzag or double combination.

A flat correction would require primary wave B to retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 88.93. Within a flat, primary wave B may make a new extreme beyond the start of primary wave A at 88.25.

A double zigzag would expect a relatively brief and shallow correction for primary wave X.

A double combination would expect a relatively deep and possibly time consuming correction for primary wave X.

Cycle wave II may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I above 103.82.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Quarterly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

A single zigzag down to the last major low may still be complete.

A new upwards trend may continue. So far there may be two overlapping first and second waves. Primary wave 2 may not move beyond the start of primary wave 1 below 72.69.

Primary wave 2 should find strong support at the lower edge of the teal base channel if it gets down that low.

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

Primary wave 2 may be a complete zigzag. However, this wave down can also be seen as a five and primary wave 2 may yet continue lower.

WEEKLY CHART

US Dollar Elliott Wave Chart Weekly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bullish wave count sees the last wave down as a completed zigzag. If this is correct, then within primary wave 3 no second wave correction may move beyond its start below 88.25.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

US Dollar Chart Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

DAILY CHART

US Dollar Daily 2018
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

This analysis is published @ 11:02 p.m. EST.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – 17th April, 2018 – Grand Super Cycle

S&P 500 Grand Super Cycle Elliott wave analysis.

Summary: From last analysis two wave counts are published. The main wave count remains valid. The alternate bearish wave count is not invalidated but should be now discarded due to a very low probability.

MAIN WAVE COUNT – BULLISH

YEARLY CHART

S&P 500 historic 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

The data prior to the inception of the S&P500 index is an amalgamation of the US stock market back to that date.

There are two approaches to the S&P500 long term analysis: either look only at data since the inception of the S&P500 in 1957, or to include an amalgamation of the entire US stock market before that date as part of the analysis. I have chosen to look at the entire market.

The data I have only goes back to 1871. This bull wave count assumes up to the market peak of 1929 a five wave impulse can be counted. This may have been a Super Cycle wave (I), and the Great Depression a Super Cycle wave (II) correction. If this assumption is wrong, then the bull wave count would not work.

If Super Cycle wave (III) began at the end of the Great Depression in 1933, then it may have ended in 2000. Super Cycle wave (III) would have lasted 67 years and moved price 1,523 points.

Within Super Cycle wave (III), there are no adequate Fibonacci ratios between cycle waves I, III and V. Cycle wave II is a deep 0.82 zigzag lasting 5 years, and cycle wave IV is a shallow 0.42 zigzag lasting 2 years. There is alternation in depth cycle waves II and IV.

Super Cycle wave (II) lasted only four years (a relatively deep quick zigzag). Super Cycle wave (IV) may be over as a more shallow flat correction, lasting 8.5 years. There is perfect alternation between Super Cycle waves (II) and (IV).

This wave count expects that Super Cycle wave (V) is underway to finally end Grand Super Cycle wave I.

Both Super Cycle waves (I) and (III) look to be extended in this analysis. If this is correct, then Super Cycle wave (V) may not extend.

MONTHLY CHART

S&P 500 Monthly 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This monthly chart shows all of the possible Super Cycle wave (IV) and Super Cycle wave (V) so far.

Super Cycle wave (IV) fits as a regular flat correction, and within it cycle wave b is a 1.03 length of cycle wave a. Cycle wave c exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to cycle wave a, but it does move below the end of cycle wave a avoiding a truncation.

All subdivisions within Super Cycle wave (IV) have a good fit for this wave count. Cycle wave a fits best as a zigzag. Cycle wave b fits best as a zigzag. Cycle wave c fits best as an impulse.

Super Cycle wave (V) may be nearing completion. The Elliott channel will be important. While price remains above the lower edge of the channel, it should be assumed that Super Cycle wave (V) will continue higher. If the channel is breached by downwards movement, that may be an early indication that the upwards wave labelled Super Cycle wave (V) should be over and a new wave down should then be underway. Draw the channel from the ends of cycle waves I to III (note that cycle wave I ends with a truncation), then place a parallel copy on the end of cycle wave II. This channel was only slightly overshot at the end of cycle wave IV, but not breached. This channel has now been held for 9 years.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT – BEARISH

YEARLY

S&P 500 historic bear 2018
Click chart to enlarge.

This bear wave count expects that the Depression of the 1840’s was a Super Cycle wave (II) and the Great Depression of the 1930’s was its counterpart Super Cycle wave (IV). From an historic perspective both depressions were significant, so this idea makes sense.

The rise since the end of the Great Depression in 1933 would be a Super Cycle wave (V). Which means that a Grand Super Cycle wave I may have ended in 2000.

Within Super Cycle wave (V), the subdivisions are seen in the same way as for the bull wave count. There are no adequate Fibonacci ratios at cycle degree.

If Grand Super Cycle wave II began there, then it would most likely be incomplete. Grand Super Cycle waves should last generations, not just 8.5 years. The first flat correction would most likely be Super Cycle wave (A) of an expanded flat. But it may also be Super Cycle wave (W) of a double flat or combination.

However, this wave count now suffers from a very big problem. If Grand Super Cycle wave II is continuing, then within it Super Cycle wave (B) is now well longer than twice the length of Super Cycle wave (A). At the last all time high in January 2018, Super Cycle wave (B) would have been 2.48 times the length of Super Cycle wave (A).

While there is no Elliott wave rule stating a maximum limit for B waves within flat corrections, they are most commonly between 1 to 1.38 times the length of their A waves. There is a convention within Elliott wave that states when the B wave passes 2 times the length of the A wave, the idea of a flat correction should be discarded based upon a very low probability. For this reason this wave count should now be discarded.

This analysis is published about 5:55 a.m. EST.

This analysis was previously posted on Elliott Wave Stock Market.