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Price moved into the target zone, which was 1,197 to 1,192, and then turned upwards to print a green daily candlestick.

Summary: Allow for the possibility of new lows while price remains within the channel. The next target is now at 1,193 – 1,192. If the channels on the hourly charts are breached by upwards movement, then expect Gold has had a trend change. The next wave upwards may be a very long trend as a third wave at two large degrees unfolds.

There are multiple approaches to trading this market next week. Members should take at least some profits now, if not completely close short positions. If entering long before the channel is breached, it would be wise to hedge with a short position. Stops for long positions may be set just below 1,196 and the target is at least 1,392. Stops for short positions including hedging may be set just above the last swing high at 1,206.

A more conservative approach would be to wait for the channels to be breached before entering long.

If the channel is breached, do not hold short positions.

Always use a stop. Do not invest more than 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

New updates to this analysis are in bold.

Last weekly charts are here and the last video on weekly wave counts is here.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.



Gold Elliott Wave Chart Daily 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This daily chart will suffice for both weekly charts.

Upwards movement is either a third wave (first weekly chart) to unfold as an impulse, or a Y wave (second weekly chart) to unfold as a zigzag. If upwards movement is a zigzag for primary wave Y, then it would be labelled intermediate waves (A) – (B) and now (C) to unfold.

Intermediate wave (1) or (A) is a complete five wave impulse lasting 39 days. Intermediate wave (2) or (B) so far looks like an expanded flat, which is a very common structure.

Minor wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure. The structure may now be complete (first hourly chart below) or it may require a final low (second hourly chart below).

So far intermediate wave (2) has lasted 22 sessions. If it is over here, then it may be considered close enough to a Fibonacci 21 to exhibit a Fibonacci duration.

Intermediate wave (2) may not move beyond the start of intermediate wave (1) below 1,123.08.

At this stage, there are multiple ways to see the subdivisions of minor wave C downwards at the hourly chart level. Below are just two possibilities.

If this wave count is correct, then at its end minor wave C will provide a very good opportunity to join the longer term upwards trend.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
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The Elliott channels on both hourly charts are slightly redrawn now.

So far price remains within both channels and there has been no indication yet of a trend change.

This first hourly chart sees the extended wave within the impulse of minor wave C as the third wave for minute wave iii.

Within the impulse of minute wave iii, the longest extension is minuette wave (v). This is typical of Gold.

Strongest momentum is within the middle of the third wave. This looks right.

This first hourly chart has better alternation and Fibonacci ratios than the second hourly chart. This slightly increases the probability of this first hourly chart, but it still absolutely requires a clear breach of the channel before any confidence may be had in a trend change.

A new high above 1,208.76, which would breach the channel, would indicate minute wave v for this wave count would have to be over. This would provide some confidence in this wave count.


Gold Elliott Wave Chart Hourly 2017
Click chart to enlarge.

This second wave count expects that minute wave iii is the extended wave within the impulse of minor wave C.

Within the impulse for minute wave iii, this wave count expects the longest extension is minuette wave (iii). This is slightly less common for Gold than for its fifth waves to be extended.

The alternation and Fibonacci ratios for this wave count are not as good as for the first wave count.

A new low on Monday would indicate this second wave count is correct and that the first would be invalidated. The target is close by now.

The invalidation point for this second wave count is too far away to be useful. If price clearly breaches the Elliott channel with upwards movement, not sideways, that would see this wave count discarded prior to full invalidation.



Gold Weekly 2017
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

This week completes a red candlestick that closed with lighter volume than last week. This offers small support for the Elliott wave count that sees downwards movement over here or very soon. However, price can continue to fall for a few more weeks of its own weight.

On Balance Volume has some distance to go to find support or resistance. It is not very useful at this time on the weekly time frame.

ADX indicates no clear trend.


Gold Daily 2016
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Price made a lower low and lower high for Friday’s session and the balance of volume was downwards. An increase in volume supported the fall in price for Friday. This is bearish and supports the second hourly chart, and may also support much lower prices next week.

The candlestick for Friday closed green and is a spinning top. This puts the trend at this time from down to neutral; it is not a reversal pattern.

Because it is now so strong, long term bullish divergence is noted today between price and RSI.

Single day divergence with price and Stochastics is not enough to signal a low in place here. Stochastics can remain extreme for reasonable periods of time during a strong trend for Gold, and divergence can develop further into multiples before price turns.

ATR is bearish and this is now quite concerning for bears. Each day they are able to push price lower but by smaller and smaller amounts.



GDX Daily 2016
Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of

After five days of falling price on declining volume, now a strong upwards day has strong support from volume. The volume profile here is bullish.

With ADX reaching extreme, RSI reaching oversold, and Stochastics reaching oversold, it would be reasonable to expect some upwards movement here to continue to resolve extreme oversold conditions for GDX.

This analysis is published @ 11:56 p.m. EST.