S&P 500

A small inside day fits the Elliott wave count.

At the end of the week, VIX and the AD line and On Balance Volume are all giving signals which are in agreement.

Summary: Bearish signals at the end of the week from VIX and the AD line and On Balance Volume all favour the idea that a pullback is not over. Some more sideways and lower movement is expected next week. In the first instance, look for support about 2,701.

If price makes a high above 2,742.24 with signs of strength, then the pullback should be over; expect an increase in upwards momentum as a third wave unfolds.

Pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.

The long to mid term Elliott wave target is at 2,922, and a classic analysis target is now at 3,045.

Always practice good risk management. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

The biggest picture, Grand Super Cycle analysis, is here.

Last historic analysis with monthly charts is here, video is here.

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave V must complete as a five structure, which should look clear at the weekly chart level. It may only be an impulse or ending diagonal. At this stage, it is clear it is an impulse.

Within cycle wave V, the third waves at all degrees may only subdivide as impulses.

Intermediate wave (4) has breached an Elliott channel drawn using Elliott’s first technique. The channel is redrawn using Elliott’s second technique: the first trend line from the ends of intermediate waves (2) to (4), then a parallel copy on the end of intermediate wave (3). Intermediate wave (5) may end either midway within the channel, or about the upper edge.

Intermediate wave (4) may now be a complete regular contracting triangle lasting fourteen weeks, one longer than a Fibonacci thirteen. There is perfect alternation and excellent proportion between intermediate waves (2) and (4).

If intermediate wave (4) were to continue further as either a flat or combination, both possibilities would require another deep pullback to end at or below 2,532.69. With both On Balance Volume and the AD line making new all time highs, that possibility looks extremely unlikely.

If intermediate wave (4) were to continue further, it would now be grossly disproportionate to intermediate wave (2). Both classic technical analysis and Elliott wave analysis now suggest these alternate ideas should be discarded based upon a very low probability.

Within intermediate wave (5), no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave below 2,594.62.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that intermediate wave (4) is a complete regular contracting triangle, the most common type of triangle. Minor wave E may have found support just below the 200 day moving average and ending reasonably short of the A-C trend line. This is the most common look for E waves of triangles.

Intermediate wave (3) exhibits no Fibonacci ratio to intermediate wave (1). It is more likely then that intermediate wave (5) may exhibit a Fibonacci ratio to either of intermediate waves (1) or (3). The most common Fibonacci ratio would be equality in length with intermediate wave (1), but in this instance that would expect a truncation. The next common Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target for intermediate wave (5) to end.

Price has clearly broken out above the upper triangle B-D trend line. This indicates that it should now be over if the triangle is correctly labelled.

A trend line in lilac is added to this chart. It is the same line as the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle on the daily technical analysis chart. Upwards movement has sliced cleanly through this line, finding no resistance before breaking it. This line may offer some support for any pullbacks. Price is finding support at that line so far. A breach of that line does not mean the classic triangle is invalid and that price must make new lows, only that the pullback is deeper. Look for next support at the blue Elliott wave triangle B-D trend line.

Sometimes the point at which the triangle trend lines cross over sees a trend change. A trend change at that point may be a minor one or a major one. That point is now about the 7th of June.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

From Dhalquist and Kirkpatrick on trading triangles:

“The ideal situation for trading triangles is a definite breakout, a high trading range within the triangle, an upward-sloping volume trend during the formation of the triangle, and especially a gap on the breakout.”

For this example, the breakout may have now happened. There was a high trading range within the triangle, but volume declined. A downwards week may be a typical pullback following the breakout. If the pullback is not over, then expect support still about the upper edge of the symmetrical triangle top trend line.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

The symmetrical triangle may now be complete, and price has completed an upwards breakout. There may be some small cause for concern that the upwards breakout does not have support from volume. However, in current market conditions only some small concern is had here. Rising price on light and declining volume has been a feature of this market for years, yet price continues to rise.

After an upwards breakout, pullbacks occur 59% of the time. A pullback may find support at the upper triangle trend line and may be used as an opportunity to join a trend.

Symmetrical triangles suffer from many false breakouts. If price returns back into the triangle, then the breakout will be considered false and the triangle trend line will be redrawn.

The base distance is 340.18. Added to the breakout point of 2,704.54 this gives a target at 3,044.72. This is above the Elliott wave target at 2,922, so the Elliott wave target may be inadequate.

For the short term, the next smaller consolidation or pullback may come about 2,811. This shorter term target is calculated using the measuring gap. This gap at 2,701.27 so far this week continues to provide support; expect it may continue to do so next week until proven otherwise.

The short term volume profile remains bullish, but the bearish signal from On Balance Volume should be given more weight. Expect at least some more downwards movement here.

VOLATILITY – INVERTED VIX CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com. So that colour blind members are included, bearish signals
will be noted with blue and bullish signals with yellow.

Normally, volatility should decline as price moves higher and increase as price moves lower. This means that normally inverted VIX should move in the same direction as price.

Bullish divergence noted in last analysis has been followed by a small inside day.

Now there is new bearish divergence: inverted VIX has made a new low below the low three sessions prior, but price has not. This may be now followed by one or two downwards days to resolve it.

BREADTH – AD LINE

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There is normally 4-6 months divergence between price and market breadth prior to a full fledged bear market. This has been so for all major bear markets within the last 90 odd years. With no longer term divergence yet at this point, any decline in price should be expected to be a pullback within an ongoing bull market and not necessarily the start of a bear market. New all time highs from the AD line means that any bear market may now be an absolute minimum of 4 months away. It may of course be a lot longer than that. My next expectation for the end of this bull market may now be October 2019.

Small caps continue to make new all time highs, but mid and large caps have yet to do so. This divergence may be interpreted as bullish. Small caps may now be leading the market.

Breadth should be read as a leading indicator.

There has been a cluster of bullish signals from the AD line in the last few weeks. This also overall offers good support to the main Elliott wave count.

The new strong all time high is extremely bullish and supports the Elliott wave count, which expects price to follow through.

The AD line has made a new small swing low below the low three to four sessions prior, but price has not. This divergence is bearish. Price may follow with a new low.

DOW THEORY

The following lows need to be exceeded for Dow Theory to confirm the end of the bull market and a change to a bear market:

DJIA: 23,360.29.

DJT: 9,806.79.

S&P500: 2,532.69.

Nasdaq: 6,630.67.

At this stage, only DJIA has made a new major swing low. DJT also needs to make a new major swing low for Dow Theory to indicate a switch from a bull market to a bear market. For an extended Dow Theory, which includes the S&P500 and Nasdaq, these two markets also need to make new major swing lows.

GOLD

A signal from On Balance Volume at the end of this week now offers support to the main Elliott wave count at weekly and daily time frames.

Summary: The target is now 1,411. Triple bullish divergence between price and Stochastics, and now a cluster of long lower candlestick wicks, suggest a low may be in place here or very soon.

With a bullish signal from On Balance Volume and support from volume for rising price, some confidence may now be had in the main bullish Elliott wave count.

Always trade with stops to protect your account. Risk only 1-5% of equity on any one trade.

Grand SuperCycle analysis is here.

Last in-depth historic analysis with monthly and several weekly charts is here, video is here.

There are multiple wave counts at this time at the weekly and monthly chart levels. In order to make this analysis manageable and accessible only two will be published on a daily basis, one bullish and one bearish. This does not mean the other possibilities may not be correct, only that publication of them all each day is too much to digest. At this stage, they do not diverge from the two possibilities below.

BULLISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIRST WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Cycle wave b may be a single zigzag. Zigzags subdivide 5-3-5. Primary wave C must subdivide as a five wave structure and may be either an impulse or an ending diagonal. Overlapping at this stage indicates an ending diagonal.

Within an ending diagonal, all sub-waves must subdivide as zigzags. Intermediate wave (4) must overlap into intermediate wave (1) price territory. This diagonal is expanding: intermediate wave (3) is longer than intermediate wave (1) and intermediate wave (4) is longer than intermediate wave (2). Intermediate wave (5) must be longer than intermediate wave (3), so it must end above 1,398.41 where it would reach equality in length with intermediate wave (3).

Within the final zigzag of intermediate wave (5), minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A below 1,236.54. However, if it were now to turn out to be relatively deep, it should not get too close to this invalidation point as the lower (2)-(4) trend line should provide strong support. Diagonals normally adhere very well to their trend lines.

Within the diagonal of primary wave C, each sub-wave is extending in price and so may also do so in time. Within each zigzag, minor wave B may exhibit alternation in structure and may show an increased duration.

Within intermediate wave (1), minor wave B was a triangle lasting 11 days. Within intermediate wave (3), minor wave B was a regular flat lasting 60 days. Intermediate wave (5) is expected to be longer in price than intermediate wave (3), and it may also be longer in duration, and so minor wave B within it may also be longer in duration. If minor wave B is over, it would have lasted 82 days.

This first weekly chart sees the upwards wave labelled primary wave A as a five wave structure. It must be acknowledged that this upwards wave looks better as a three than it does as a five. The fifth weekly chart below will consider the possibility that it was a three.

FIRST DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave B may be a complete regular flat correction. Minute wave c has overshot the lower trend line. Although this is not the most common look for a regular flat, it does sometimes happen. Minute wave c now looks like an obvious five wave structure at the daily chart level.

The bottom line for this wave count is it now requires a breach of the green Elliott channel about minute wave c for confidence that a low is now in place.

The target for minor wave C is calculated using the most common Fibonacci ratio to minor wave A. This would see intermediate wave (5) reach beyond its minimum required length. All Elliott wave rules would be met.

BEARISH ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT

FIFTH WEEKLY CHART

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There were five weekly charts published in the last historic analysis. This fifth weekly chart is the most immediately bearish wave count, so this is published as a bearish possibility.

This fifth weekly chart sees cycle wave b as a flat correction.

If cycle wave b is a flat correction, then within it primary wave B must retrace a minimum 0.9 length of primary wave A at 1,079.13 or below. The most common length of B waves within flats is from 1 to 1.38 times the length of the A wave. The target calculated would see primary wave B end within this range.

Primary wave B may be subdividing as a regular flat correction, and within it both intermediate waves (A) and (B) subdivide as three wave structures. Intermediate wave (B) fits as a triple zigzag.

I have only seen two triple zigzags before during my 10 years of daily Elliott wave analysis. If this wave count turns out to be correct, this would be the third. The rarity of this structure is identified on the chart.

FIFTH DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

Minor wave 1 may have been a relatively brief impulse over at the low of the 8th of February.

Minor wave 2 may be over at the last high as a double zigzag. All subdivisions fit and all Elliott wave rules are met. The second zigzag in the double does deepen the correction, which is its purpose, although it is not by very much.

It is possible that a third wave, minor wave 3, began at the last high labelled minor wave 2. Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse.

Within minor wave 3, minute wave i may be over at the last low. Minute wave ii may be a multi day bounce or sideways movement that may end about the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci ratios, but the pull of the middle of a third wave down may now force it to be more shallow than second wave corrections usually are; the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio may be slightly favoured.

Minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i above 1,364.36.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Price is back within the resistance zone about 1,300 to 1,310. What looked like a possible downwards breakout last week now looks false. There are two recent examples on this chart, and this may be a third. In all three cases the consolidation prior to the possible downwards breakout had the strongest week as an upwards week, which was the clue that the downwards breakout may turn out to be false.

Volume is bullish, and there is a bullish signal from On Balance Volume this week. This supports the main Elliott wave count.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

At the end of the week, Gold is back within the resistance zone of 1,300 to 1,310. If this can be overcome, then expect it to turn to support again.

It looks like the downwards breakout may have been false, but before that can properly be concluded price needs to close back above 1,310.

Let us look back at major lows from November 2015 and see how price behaved in the days immediately after.

A major low was found on the 3rd of December, 2015. The following day for the 4th of December saw a strong Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern with support from volume, and it came with strong double bullish divergence between price and both of RSI and Stochastics. That low in hindsight looks fairly strong.

Another reasonable low was found on the 31st of May, 2016. There was no reasonable bullish divergence at the low between price and either of RSI or Stochastics. At the low, the candlestick had a bullish long lower wick (although with a reasonable upper wick, it is not properly a Hammer reversal pattern). The two days following the low for the 1st and 2nd of June were inconclusive; both closed red and could at the time have been considered a potential bear flag pattern developing; both had a balance of volume downwards but showed strongly declining volume. Not until the third day, with a very strong upwards day with support from volume to complete a very strong Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern, was a low set in place.

A major low was found on the 15th of December, 2016. At the low, the candlestick had a somewhat bullish long lower wick; volume for the last downwards day supported the fall in price; and, there was clear and strong bullish divergence between price and RSI and Stochastics. The next two days closed green but did not have support from volume. The following two days closed red and did have support from volume. At that stage, four days out from a major low, the short term volume profile was bearish and it looked like a bear flag pattern may be developing. It was not until seven days after the low on the 27th of December that a reasonable bullish day unfolded, and even then it did not have good support from volume. This low did not look clear.

The next low to study occurred on the 10th of March, 2017. That day was inconclusive, closing green, but the balance of volume was downwards and volume supported that downwards movement. At the low, there was no reasonable bullish divergence between price and either of RSI or Stochastics. It was not until three days after the low on the 15th of March that price bounced strongly to complete a strong Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern, which had good support from volume.

The next low to study occurred on the 9th of May, 2017. On that day RSI reached oversold, but there was no divergence between it and price nor price and Stochastics. Right up until six days after the low the short term volume profile could have been judged to be bearish; rising price did not have support from volume. It was clear a low was in place on the 17th of May as a very strong Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern unfolded with strong support from volume. The small bounce up until that date could have been judged to be a bounce within an ongoing downwards trend.

The next low to study occurred on the 10th of July, 2017. There was no divergence at the low between price and RSI, but there was strong clear bullish divergence between price and Stochastics. There were two candlesticks with bullish long lower wicks at the low, but volume remained lighter than the prior downwards day of the 9th of July. This looks like a selling climax in hindsight, but at the time it could have been judged to support downwards movement. Right up until the 14th of July, five days after the low, it could have been considered a bear flag pattern unfolding. On the 14th of July a strong Bullish Engulfing pattern unfolded with some support from volume.

The last low to study is a very important one on the 12th of December, 2017. This occurred after a downwards breakout below support, which was previously at 1,262. That downwards breakout was short lived; price remained below support for two weeks, and found a low only five days after the breakout. At the low, there was no bullish divergence between price and either of RSI or Stochastics. The first upwards day on the 13th of December had a wide range but a very small real body. It did have good support from volume, but volume remained lighter than most prior downwards days. After that low, price moved steadily higher for weeks, initially on light and declining volume. That low in hindsight was very difficult to pick.

Some conclusions may be drawn in relation to the current situation. The first and strongest conclusion is that lows for Gold (at least for the last two years and five months) are not always very clear at the time. Price can be weak in days immediately following lows; it can remain weak for about five to seven days following lows. Lows do not always come with divergence between price and RSI nor even price and Stochastics, but when they do that offers a clue.

Although the last few days have seen unexpected downwards movement, some suspicion may be had that this is a downwards breakout. ADX at this time indicates a downward trend is in place, but this is a lagging indicator. Look out for at least a short term bounce here, and do not be surprised if it begins to show some strength towards the end of this week. If it remains persistently weak, then short positions may be taken for a downwards trend (the new labelling for the fifth wave count could be correct). If it shows strength, that would support the first wave count; the downwards breakout may have been yet another false breakout.

The current low now has triple bullish divergence with price, and there is now a cluster of long lower candlestick wicks. Considering volume was bullish during the last consolidation, and Gold has a recent history of false downwards breakouts following that set up, the strong bounce at the end of this week was expected as likely (which has support from volume).

GDX WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Support about 20.80 has been tested about eight times and so far has held. The more often a support area is tested and holds, the more technical significance it has.

In the first instance, expect this area to continue to provide support. Only a strong downwards day, closing below support and preferably with some increase in volume, would constitute a downwards breakout from the consolidation that GDX has been in for a year now.

Resistance is about 25.50. Only a strong upwards day, closing above resistance and with support from volume, would constitute an upwards breakout.

Overall, a slow upwards swing may be underway. Do not expect it to move in a straight line; it may have downwards weeks within it.

With a bullish signal from On Balance Volume and bullish volume for the last week, expect a green candlestick next week.

GDX DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

On trading triangles from Dhalquist and Kirkpatrick, page 319:

“The ideal situation for trading triangles is a definite breakout, a high trading range within the triangle, an upward-sloping volume trend during the formation of the triangle, and especially a gap on the breakout. These patterns seem to work better with small-cap stocks in a rising market.

Although triangles are plentiful, their patterns suffer from many false and premature breakouts. This requires that a very strict breakout rule be used, either a wide filter or a number of closes outside the breakout zone. It also requires a close protective stop at the breakout level in case the breakout is false. Once these defensive levels have been exceeded, and price is on its way, the trader can relax for a little while because the failure rate after a legitimate breakout is relatively low. Trailing stops should then be placed at each preceding minor reversal.

…. in symmetrical triangles, the best performance comes from late breakouts in the 73% – 75% distance.

Volume on the breakout seems more desirable in symmetrical triangles.”

In this case, the breakout has come 61% of the triangle length from base to cradle. Volume towards the end of the triangle declined. The breakout is accompanied by a gap and has good support from volume.

Pullbacks occur 59% of the time for symmetrical triangles.

Support for On Balance Volume is close by. This may assist to force any pullbacks here to be shallow.

Bullish divergence between price and On Balance Volume at the last highs still remains valid, and it still supports the idea of new highs from price to follow through.

US OIL

Last week’s analysis expected an upwards trend in place, and suggested pullbacks are an opportunity to join the trend.

Summary: This pullback may find support at the lilac trend line on the weekly and daily charts. If it does not end there, then the target would be at 63.77.

The mid term target is now at 97.92. A longer term target is at 106.25.

Always practice good risk management as the most important aspect of trading. Always trade with stops and invest only 1-5% of equity on any one trade. Failure to manage risk is the most common mistake new traders make.

MAIN WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible that the bear market for Oil is over and a new bull market is in the very early stages.

A huge zigzag down to the last low may be complete and is labelled here Super Cycle wave (II).

Cycle wave b must be seen as complete in August 2013 for this wave count to work. It cannot be seen as complete at the prior major swing high in May 2011.

Cycle wave b is seen as a zigzag, and within it primary wave B is seen as a running contracting triangle. These are fairly common structures, although nine wave triangles are uncommon. All subdivisions fit.

Primary wave C moves beyond the end of primary wave A, so it avoids a truncation. But it does not have to move above the price territory of primary wave B to avoid a truncation, which is an important distinction.

If cycle wave b begins there, then cycle wave c may be seen as a complete five wave impulse.

Super Cycle wave (III) must move beyond the end of Super Cycle wave (I). It must move far enough above that point to allow room for a subsequent Super Cycle wave (IV) to unfold and remain above Super Cycle wave (I) price territory.

Cycle wave I may be incomplete. It may be ready to move through the middle and end of its third wave at primary degree, which may be the strongest upwards portion of cycle wave I; a strong increase in momentum and range may be ahead.

When cycle wave I is complete, then cycle wave II may be a deep correction that may not move beyond the start of cycle wave I below 26.06.

Data from FXCM for USOil does not go back to the beginning of Super Cycle wave (I). Without an accurate known length of Super Cycle wave (I) a target cannot be calculated for Super Cycle wave (III) to end using Fibonacci ratios. The target for Super Cycle wave (III) may be calculated when cycle waves I, II, III and IV within it are complete. That cannot be done for many years.

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

If a new bull market is in the very early stages for Oil, then it may have begun with two overlapping first and second waves at primary then at intermediate degree.

Primary wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse, and within it intermediate wave (3) may be incomplete.

Within intermediate wave (3), only minor waves 1 and 2 may be complete. Minor wave 3 may have just begun. The most common Fibonacci ratio is used to calculate a target for it to end. Minor wave 3 may only subdivide as an impulse, and within it minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i below 58.13.

A target is calculated for primary wave 3 to end, which fits with the lower target for minor wave 3 to end.

A base channel is added in lilac to minor waves 1 and 2. Along the way up, lower degree second wave corrections may find support about the lower edge of this channel. Base channels most often work in this way but not always.

Commodities typically exhibit swift and strong fifth waves within their impulses, and this tendency is particularly common for third wave impulses. Intermediate wave (5) may be a swift strong upwards wave when it arrives.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

It is possible to see another impulse complete at the last high. This may be minute wave i.

Strong downwards movement for Friday’s session strongly suggests that this wave count is more likely. The first daily chart from last week’s analysis is discarded based upon a very low probability.

If minute wave ii ends about the lower edge of the lilac base channel, which is copied over from the weekly chart, then it may end just below the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i. At this stage, the strong upwards pull of the middle of a third wave at three degrees may force minute wave ii to be more shallow than second waves often are.

If minute wave ii breaks below the lower edge of the lilac base channel, then the next target for it to end would be about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minute wave i at 63.77.

ALTERNATE WAVE COUNT

MONTHLY CHART

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Within the bear market, cycle wave b is seen as ending in May 2011. Thereafter, a five wave structure downwards for cycle wave c begins.

Primary wave 1 is a short impulse lasting five months. Primary wave 2 is a very deep 0.94 zigzag lasting 22 months. Primary wave 3 is a complete impulse with no Fibonacci ratio to primary wave 1. It lasted 30 months.

There is now little alternation in depth between primary waves 2 and 4. Primary wave 2 is very deep, but primary wave 4 is also now deep. There is inadequate alternation in structure, both are zigzags. The lack of alternation in this wave count must reduce its probability. So far primary wave 4 has lasted 27 months. At this stage, there is still reasonable proportion between primary waves 2 and 4.

Primary wave 4 may not move into primary wave 1 price territory above 74.96.

The wider Elliott channel (teal) about this whole movement may offer support to primary wave 5.

WEEKLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge.

This wave count now expects a huge trend change for a new wave down for primary wave 5, which may last about a year or so. Primary wave 5 would be likely to make at least a slight new low below 26.86 to move below the end of primary wave 3 and avoid a truncation.

An Elliott channel is added to this possible zigzag for primary wave 4. A breach of the lower edge of this channel would provide a very strong indication that primary wave 4 should be over and primary wave 5 should be underway. Look out for some support on the way down, perhaps a short term bounce about the lower edge of the channel.

A new low now below 58.13 would invalidate the main wave count and in turn offer some confidence to this alternate.

DAILY CHART

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The subdivisions of the last upwards wave are now seen in the same way for both wave counts. For this alternate, it may have been a complete impulse for minor wave 5.

This wave count now expects a new wave down at primary degree. That should begin with a five down on the daily chart. Within the new wave down, no second wave correction may move beyond the start of its first wave above 72.90.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

For the last four months all now complete, the volume profile is bullish. There are now three completed monthly candlesticks with long lower wicks.

This chart is overwhelmingly bullish. It supports the main Elliott wave count.

Strong volume for the month of June 2017 may have been a selling climax. This is typical behaviour of commodities.

The strongest recent volume is a downwards month for August 2017. This is the only bearish indication on this chart.

DAILY CHART

Click chart to enlarge. Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

So far this pullback is finding support about the Fibonacci 55 day moving average. But it does not look complete yet: Volume and On Balance Volume are bearish, and the last candlestick is very bearish. Do not expect this pullback to move in a straight line; it may be choppy and overlapping.

Only when a long lower wick on a daily candlestick develops (or a cluster of them), or Stochastics reaches oversold and then exhibits some divergence with price, may this pullback be over.

Next support is about 66.85, and below that about 64.50.