A little more downwards movement towards the Elliott wave target at 1,238 was expected. Price did make a slight new low, but fell short of the target by $3.40. Thereafter, a breach of the channel on the hourly chart indicated a low was likely in place for the short term.
Sideways movement with one slight new high fits expectations for the week. A new high above 74.96 to 75.26 has invalidated the alternate Elliott wave count, providing more confidence now in the main Elliott wave count.
Last week’s analysis expected an upwards swing to continue at least for the short term, which could make a new high above 72.90. Price has moved higher to reach 74.46 for the week.
Yesterday’s signal from On Balance Volume that caused concern for the main Elliott wave count is now negated. The main Elliott wave count has support from classic technical analysis.
Upwards movement continues as the second Elliott wave count expected.
A new high on Friday for US Oil shifts the probabilities of the three daily Elliott wave counts.
A small inside week closing as a doji saw only sideways movement from Oil. This leaves the analysis the same.
Downwards movement was expected to continue with strong momentum. This is exactly what has happened.
A new high above 66.65 has substantially reduced the probability of the main Elliott wave count and increased the probability of the alternate. This week the two wave counts should be swapped over.
Downwards movement continued this week exactly as expected.
A downwards swing was expected to continue. Members were warned that within this consolidation price should not be expected to move in a straight line. The whipsaw today is a good illustration of risk within consolidations.
A turn was expected. Price has remained just below the invalidation point and printed a red weekly candlestick.
Another small range week, this time an inside week, does not change the Elliott wave analysis.